PT TODAY: Severino injury opens NYY rotation opportunity

Team-by-team playing time allocation charts can be found in our Teamview pages.

American League | National League
 
Yankees | Luis Severino headed for Tommy John
New York Yankees SP Luis Severino (elbow) will undergo Tommy John surgery, according to a person familiar with the situation Tuesday, Feb. 25.  Source: The New York Times - James Wagner
 
BHQ take: Ouch. The timing of the injury means Severino's recovery period is likely to extend into the 2021 season. As a result, he can be safely dropped in all but the deepest of keeper or dynasty leagues. Combined with the absence of James Paxton, who may begin playing catch in about 10 days, there are two spots to fill at the back end of the Yankees rotation, with Jordan Montgomery and Jonathan Loaisiga perhaps having an edge based on major league experience. But waiting in the wings if Montgomery and Loaisiga are unable to get the job done are youngsters Michael King and Deivi Garcia. Meanwhile, even as the news about Severino was breaking, manager Aaron Boone was saying that Luis Cessa would pitch in relief in 2020, presumably leaving him out of this competition at least for the time being.  —Kris Olson
 
Impact: High
Loaisiga, Jonathan    PT Gain: 2%   
Montgomery, Jordan    PT Gain: 4%   
Severino, Luis    PT Loss: -11%   
King, Michael    PT Gain: 3%   
 

 
Rangers | Brock Burke likely out for the season
Texas Rangers LHP Brock Burke (shoulder) is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder to repair fraying and a partial tear of his labrum on Friday, Feb. 28. He is expected to miss the entire 2020 season as a result.  Source: MLB.com - John Blake
 
BHQ take: Burke was already on the outside looking in for a spot in the TEX rotation, but this is clearly tough news for the prospect acquired from TAM in the three-team trade for Jurickson Profar just over a year ago. No PT adjustment for any other Rangers hurlers is needed, as we've likely already over-projected the TEX rotation given the solid status of their top five. Burke projects as a bottom of the order starter down the road; given this setback, he's probably a couple of years away from being fanalytically relevant.  —Rod Truesdell
 
Impact: Low
Burke, Brock    PT Loss: -2%   
 

 
 
 
National League | American League
 
Padres | Brian Dozier agrees to terms
The San Diego Padres agreed to terms with free-agent 2B Brian Dozier Sunday, Feb. 23, according to multiple sources. Terms of the contract were not disclosed but the deal includes an invitation to major league spring training camp.  Source: Robert Murray
 
BHQ take:  It's a minor league deal with $2.2 million plus incentives if he makes the roster -- suggesting that Dozier would have to get torrid in a hurry to break camp with a Padres club that already has Jurickson Profar ticketed for early 2B work. Still, the signing puts Dozier into a mix that still looks uncertain over the long season, and dials back the idea of 3B Tyler France being a serious 2B candidate. Now at age 33, Dozier is coming off of two down seasons in which his HR power has slid along with his overall productivity vR (.220 BA over his last 700 AB). The Padres have the option of making Dozier prove himself with a Triple-A stint before allowing these incentives to take hold. At least right now, he can be safely ignored in pre-season drafts, but watch this space.   —Jock Thompson
 
Impact: Med
France, Ty PT Loss: -5%      
Dozier, Brian PT Gain: 15%      
 

 
Dodgers | Julio Urias to start in 2020
Los Angeles Dodgers P Julio Urias will begin the 2020 season in the starting rotation, according to manager Dave Roberts Saturday, Feb. 22.  Source: SportsnetLA.com - Alanna Rizzo
 
BHQ take: It looks like Urias has been handed the #4 spot before his pitching his first Cactus League inning, leaving Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and Dustin May as the first-crack candidates for the final rotation opening. Mgr Dave Roberts has recently said that rookie SP Tony Gonsolin will be in the bullpen if he makes the club out of camp. Injuries, spring performances and LA’s ridiculous rotation depth can (and likely will) change things at some point, but this is where we are right now. Thanks to shoulder issues, Urias' 82 IP (2.49 ERA, 9.6 Dom in LA) was his highest total in three seasons, so we're still hedging our 2020 bets. But his SwK and velocity looked fine in 2019, suggesting that with an IP bump, Urias could take another step up and become an even more potent fantasy contributor.  —Jock Thompson
 
Impact: Med
Gonsolin, Tony    PT Loss: -1%   
Urias, Julio    PT Gain: 1%   
 

 
Reds | Nick Senzel hopes to be ready for opener
Cincinnati Reds OF Nick Senzel (shoulder) hopes to ready for opening day but will not play during the early part of spring training. He has been taking batting practice without problems but is on a limited throwing program.   Source: MLB.com - Mark Sheldon
 
BHQ take: Senzel is returning from surgery for a torn labrum which ended his 2019 rookie season during September. Any time missed is unhelpful to Senzel's playing time prospects. He displayed pronounced platoon splits in 2019, including a .900+ OPS in his 90 AB vs. LHP and a sub-.700 OPS vs. RHP. Senzel showed a solid 85% ct% in his small sample vs. LHP, yet a sub-70% ct% vs. RHP. The off-season arrivals of OFs Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos could squeeze Senzel's path to PT.  —Tom Kephart
 
Impact: High
Castellanos, Nick        
Akiyama, Shogo        
Senzel, Nick        

 

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Playing Time Key

The playing time percentage changes at the bottom of most news items correspond to BaseballHQ.com's Teamview pages. The percentages approximate changes in AB, IP and Saves in the following manner:

  • For batters, each 5% of PT% ~ 31 AB (100% total for each position = 618 AB)
  • For pitchers, each 3% of PT% ~ 44 IP (100% total for a team's entire pitching staff)
  • For relievers, each 5% of Svs ~ 2 saves (100% of a team's total = about40 saves)

A complete explanation of BaseballHQ.com's playing time allocations can be found in the article "How the Projections are Created."


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.