PT TODAY: Conforto injury likely affects Mets Opening Day OF

Team-by-team playing time allocation charts can be found in our Teamview pages.

National League | American League
 
Mets | More on Michael Conforto's injury
Updating a previous report, New York Mets OF Michael Conforto (oblique) has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 oblique strain. He does not know if he will be ready for the start of the regular season.   Source: MLB.com - Anthony DiComo
 
BHQ take: Given the timing of the injury and the possibility that the Mets will be cautious with Conforto, there’s a pretty good chance that he will not be ready for Opening Day. As a result we’ve reduced his projected at bats slightly. While he is out, the Mets have plenty of outfield options, but many of the players scheduled to see time in the outfield - J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Yoenis Cespedes - were not expected to see time anywhere but left field. One way that the Mets might choose to cover a short absence for Conforto is to start Jake Marisnick in center and move Brandon Nimmo to right. Jeff McNeil, who is expected to be the primary third baseman, did play 42 games in right in 2019, so potentially he could move there while Conforto is out. Of course, that doesn’t help if the Mets aren’t comfortable with any of their alternative third base options. One other name is Ryan Cordell, who is in camp as an NRI. However, his tenure with the White Sox in 2019 did not go very well: .200 xBA, 81 xPX, -9 BPV.  —Phil Hertz
 
Impact: High
Conforto, Michael PT Loss: -10%      
 

 
Phillies | Setback for Seranthony Dominguez
Philadelphia Phillies RP Seranthony Dominguez (elbow) has suffered a setback in his recovery from an elbow injury, according to sources. The severity of the setback is not known at this point, but his condition is expected to be updated later in the week.   Source: NBC Sports Philadelphia - Jim Salisbury
 
BHQ take: In 2018, Dominguez seemingly came out of nowhere to save 16 games and register a 2.83 xERA and a 149 BPV. While he was never given a chance to close in 2019, he pitched decently when healthy: 4.02 xERA and a 105 BPV. He was, however, plagued by an elbow injury although he avoided Tommy John surgery. With this setback, fantasy owners will need to look elsewhere at this time for holds (and the possibility of saves if Hector Neris were to lose his job). Dominguez is only 25, so he may still be of interest to owners in dynasty-type leagues. Owners in deep leagues with IL lists may also consider monitoring Dominguez, who could help teams if it turns out the setback is only temporary.  —Phil Hertz
 
Impact: Med
Dominguez, Seranthony    PT Loss: -2%   
 

 
Brewers | Eric Lauer unlikely to ready for opener
Milwaukee Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (shoulder) was diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement Tuesday, March 10, and is not expected to be ready in time for Opening Day.  Source: 1 No Source
 
BHQ take: Lauer's injury increases the likelihood RHP Freddy Peralta opens the season in MIL's starting rotation rather than in the bullpen. Peralta fared better in a relief role in 2019, holding opposing hitters to a .219 BA and .691 OPS, with a 4.01 ERA in 31 relief outings. He was ineffective as a starter, with a 7.07 ERA, and a .301 BAA contributing to a .906 OPS for opposing batters in his eight starts. Peralta's Dom and Ctl spiked with the shift to relief.   —Tom Kephart
 
Impact: High
Peralta, Freddy    PT Gain: 1%   
Lauer, Eric    PT Loss: -2%   
 

 
Dodgers | LA Dodgers set tentative rotation
Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw was named the Opening Day starter by manager Dave Roberts on Monday, March 9. Kershaw will be followed, in order, by RHP Walker Buehler, LHP David Price, LHP Julio Urias and LHP Alex Wood.  Source: Los Angeles Times - Jorge Castillo
 
BHQ take: Alex Wood was the final rotation confirmation from Mgr Dave Roberts, following Julio Urias last week. We'll bump both of them up together as we knock down Ross Stripling, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in our effort to whittle down the team IP. It's another embarrassment of rotation riches for the Dodgers, and these last names will eventually get their chances as the inevitable injuries occur and the first five need breathers. Stripling looks like an Opening Day lock for long-relief out of the pen; Gonsolin has a chance but is still on the bubble. May will most likely return to AAA-Oklahoma City to await his next opportunity.   —Jock Thompson
 
Impact: High
May, Dustin    PT Loss: -1%   
Gonsolin, Tony    PT Loss: -1%   
Stripling, Ross    PT Loss: -1%   
Urias, Julio    PT Gain: 1%   
Wood, Alex    PT Gain: 1%   
 

 
 
 
American League | National League
 
Astros | Justin Verlander unlikely for Opening Day
Updating previous reports, Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander (lat) was diagnosed with a mild lat strain Monday, March 9, and has been shut down indefinitely. Verlander later told reporters it would 'probably take a miracle for me to be back by Opening Day.'  Source: Houston Chronicle - Chandler Rome
 
BHQ take: No timetable has been offered for Verlander’s return and this new projection is a shot in the dark. But the uncertainty here should register; it could be a little better, it could be much worse. At this point in time, the two frontrunners for the #5 SP spot Josh James and Austin Pruitt now look like rotation shoo-ins, and we’ll bump them a tad even though the team IP remain a little over-subscribed before the start of the regular season. Entering Monday March 9, the two had tossed a combined 15 IP and allowed just two runs between them. Anecdotal of his soft-tossing, contact-and-control-oriented approach, Pruitt has a 3/1 K/BB over 9 innings this spring, but hey, it’s the bottom line that matters for now. James (5 IP, 5/1 K/BB) clearly owns more fantasy upside, particularly if he can remain healthy and curb his control issues.  —Jock Thompson
 
Impact: High
James, Joshua    PT Gain: 1%   
Pruitt, Austin    PT Gain: 1%   
Verlander, Justin    PT Loss: -4%   
 

 
Rangers | Willie Calhoun has fractured jaw
Updating a previous report, Texas Rangers OF Willie Calhoun (jaw) suffered a fractured jaw when he was hit by a pitch in a Cactus League spring game Sunday, March 8. He had a CT scan and examination which revealed the fracture, and he will undergo further testing Monday, March 9.  Source: MLB.com/Rangers - John Blake
 
BHQ take: Calhoun underwent surgery on 3/9 to repair his jaw. Fortunately, early news post-surgery is good: Surgeons did not have to wire Calhoun's jaw shut, instead inserting a plate, feeling the break is stable enough to not require a more serious procedure. Regardless, Calhoun will certainly open the season on the IL. Right now, though, we're mostly guessing as to how long he'll be out. So while exact PT changes are uncertain, we can speak to his replacement, as it appears UT Nick Solak is likely to step in as the semi-regular LF in Calhoun's absence. Solak impressed in his 2019 MLB debut, posting a gaudy .884 OPS in regular PT down the stretch, and the 25-year-old has been a solid hitter at every stop along his ascension to the majors. That said, an analysis of Solak's 2019 skills suggest it's a stretch to expect him to reproduce those numbers this year. A PX/xPX difference (106/64) suggests Solak's .491 SLG was probably over his head, and his .268 xBA says he was out over his skis a bit on BA as well. Still, the .850 OPS Solak put up over four minor league seasons means something, too. So temper expectations for Solak, but definitely move him up on your draft list entering 2020.  —Rod Truesdell
 
Impact: High
Heineman, Scott PT Gain: 5%      
Solak, Nick PT Gain: 15%      
Calhoun, Willie PT Loss: -20%      
 

 
Rangers | Jesse Chavez to start on IL
Texas Rangers RHP Jesse Chavez (shoulder) will start the season on the injured list because he still needs time to recover from a shoulder injury.   Source: MLB.com - T.R. Sullivan
 
BHQ take: Chavez' slow start to 2020 (TEX hopes he will be ready by late April) enhances 23-year-old Jonathan Hernandez' shot to make the club out of spring training. Hernandez' MLB resume is sorely lacking, but his upper-90s sinker has wicked arm-side movement, and he compliments that with a 90-mph slider. Moreover, Hernandez has impressed in relief this spring, showing improved command. In fact, his spring performance has prompted TEX Mgr Chris Woodward to say he'd "bet a significant amount" that Hernandez is destined to be the TEX bullpen's breakout star. Of course, all the usual spring small-sample-size caveats apply, and even if he makes the club, expect the Rangers to use Hernandez in low-leverage situations early. So he's safe to stow in your back pocket for now -- but with his stuff, and his team's confidence, Hernandez is worth following.  —Rod Truesdell
 
Impact: Low
Hernandez, Jonathan    PT Gain: 1%   
Chavez, Jesse    PT Loss: -1%   
 

 
Indians | Carlos Carrasco may miss start of season
Cleveland Indians RHP Carlos Carrasco (elbow) probably will not be ready for the start of the regular season, according to general manager Chris Antonelli. Carrasco received an injection in his elbow and is not expected to throw for a few days.   Source: MLB.com - Mandy Bell
 
BHQ take: Updating a previous report, Carrasco's delayed start to the season provides enhanced opportunity for RHP Adam Plutko. Plutko has endured ups and downs in performance with CLE while shuttling between CLE and Triple-A in recent seasons. His pedestrian Dom slipped to a career low 6.0 in 2019, with his subpar SwK offering little hint of strikeout upside. Plutko displayed career best Ctl backed by a FpK surge. He remains an extreme flyball pitcher, meaning HRs will be plentiful which in combination with the relative lack of strikeouts, render him virtually unrosterable.   —Tom Kephart
 
Impact: High
Plutko, Adam    PT Gain: 1%   
Carrasco, Carlos    PT Loss: -1%   

 

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Playing Time Key

The playing time percentage changes at the bottom of most news items correspond to BaseballHQ.com's Teamview pages. The percentages approximate changes in AB, IP and Saves in the following manner:

  • For batters, each 5% of PT% ~ 31 AB (100% total for each position = 618 AB)
  • For pitchers, each 3% of PT% ~ 44 IP (100% total for a team's entire pitching staff)
  • For relievers, each 5% of Svs ~ 2 saves (100% of a team's total = about40 saves)

A complete explanation of BaseballHQ.com's playing time allocations can be found in the article "How the Projections are Created."


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