SPECULATOR: Spring training tea leaves, 2020MARKET PULSE: 2020 All-Avoid Team
NOTE: Our preseason Market Pulse column is an exercise in identifying the gaps between the valuation of the "popular" market (as reflected in Average Draft Position, or "ADP") and that of BaseballHQ.com. If a player is not listed here, it's likely that he qualifies at a scarcer position, or he's not in the ADP Top 500-600 (it's a bit fluid). Remember that this is an exercise in relative valuation, not absolute.
Each hitter is being considered at his scarcest qualified position (in order: C/DH, SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF), as it is the scarcest eligible position that typically drives fantasy value. The rankings are a position-adjusted estimate using current BaseballHQ.com projections. It is a purely quantitative ranking, with no specific consideration of "upside" (aside from reliability scores). The dollar values are position adjusted, but do not incorporate risk. Average auction values are approximate. These are not the "official" BaseballHQ.com straight draft rankings, but they should be close.
The article assumes a standard 15-team, mixed, 5x5 league, though the recommendations here will generally apply in most formats. A positive number in the "Diff" column indicates a player that BaseballHQ.com ranks higher than the "market," and a negative number indicates we have the player ranked lower, based on ADP. The list is split into tiers, based on the ADP. The ADP itself is based on recent NFBC drafts.
Previous columns: C/DH | SS | 2B | 3B | 1B | OF | SP | RP | All-Value
(NFBC ADP Report) | Official Rankings
We recognize (as should you) that the delayed start to the MLB season may affect fantasy valuations, and that this team might look different in a month or two. But we have one week left in our pre-season Market Pulse series and dammit, we're going to finish. Plus, most of these guys will probably still be overvalued when the season commences.
Last week, we generated about $80 in excess value; this week, we'll show you how to finish last. Most of the players on this list are good players to some extent, but all are overvalued. You'll note, too, that several of them have very high risk as well.
2020 All-Avoid Team
Hitters
POS Hitter TM REL HQ$ AAV Diff HQ Rank ADP Diff
=== ================== === === === === ==== ======= === ====
C Grandal,Yasmani CHW ABA 9 14 -5 144 96 -48
C Murphy,Tom SEA BFD -1 5 -6 410 242 -168
1B Walker,Christian ARI CCD 0 7 -7 352 199 -153
3B Shaw,Travis TOR ABD -5 1 -6 569 344 -225
CI Moncada,Yoan CHW BBC 13 18 -5 114 64 -50
2B Hampson,Garrett COL AFD -9 8 -17 803 179 -624
SS Villar,Jonathan MIA AAB 13 22 -9 102 42 -60
MI Chavis,Michael BOS BDB -8 5 -13 712 239 -473
OF Aquino,Aristides CIN ACD -11 4 -15 934 248 -686
OF Hilliard,Sam COL AFF -10 3 -13 825 282 -543
OF Senzel,Nick CIN DDF -2 6 -8 414 220 -194
OF Judge,Aaron NYY DBC 16 23 -7 120 39 -81
OF Stanton,Giancarlo NYY FBC 13 18 -5 145 63 -82
UT Tatis Jr.,Fernando SD CDD 22 31 -9 63 17 -46
--- --- ---
Totals 34 157 -125
Pitchers
POS Pitcher TM REL HQ$ AAV Diff HQ Rank ADP Diff
=== ================== === === === === ==== ======= === ====
SP Montas,Frankie OAK DDC 3 12 -9 300 115 -185
SP Sale,Chris BOS DAB 12 19 -7 156 54 -102
SP Lamet,Dinelson SD FDA 5 11 -6 266 124 -142
SP Wheeler,Zack PHI DAB 6 12 -6 243 117 -126
SP Houser,Adrian MIL ADF -2 4 -6 443 250 -193
SP Alcantara,Sandy MIA BBC -1 4 -5 398 259 -139
RP Yates,Kirby SD BBA 12 16 -4 123 78 -45
RP Melancon,Mark ATL FCB 2 5 -3 317 229 -88
RP Hendriks,Liam OAK DCB 10 13 -3 187 105 -82
--- --- ---
Totals 64 115 -49
Grand totals 98 272 -174The AAV of this group is slightly over the $260 mark, so you probably couldn't acquire this exact team, not that you would want to. There's a solld mix here of reasons why.
We didn't find catchers to be overvalued as a group, but Yasmani Grandal (C, CHW) and Tom Murphy (C, SEA) sure are. For Grandal, it feels like some GMs like taking catchers early and since he's generally the third catcher off the board, that's where he goes. We'd rather go by value relative to the field, and Grandal should be going about three rounds later.
Christian Walker (1B, ARI) may have to fight for playing time again in 2020, but GMs are more or less paying full price. Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW) took a step forward in 2019, but growth isn't linear, and you don't want to pay for growth, anyway. Without more growth, his value is limited, with mediocre ct% and league-average power.
Garrett Hampson (2B, COL) has a lot of upside, but he needs to find a path to PT. We don't blame GMs for taking a flyer on him, but his 12th-round price tag is very... pricey... for a flyer. Jonathan Villar (SS, MIA) had a career-high 24 HR in 2019, and with 40 SB, it was his second-best season, speed-wise. His new ballpark and lineup are challenges to overcome, and his 70 xPX from 2019 says that maybe the power was a fluke. A strong regression candidate, he's going at full price based on his 2019.
Our outfield here consists of three wünderkinds (Aristides Aquino, Sam Hilliard, and Nick Senzel) and two guys with very shaky reliability (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton). There's a good chance two or three of these guys puts up strong seasons, but none should be going for anything close to full price.
Fernando Tatis (SS, SD) is a tremendous talent and a fun guy to watch, but his price is just far too high. First, we have injury concerns, with a C health score and the potential for lingering back issues. Then there are the warts: a 67% ct% in 2019, accompanied by an xBA that was 52 points lower than BA and a 32% hr/f that is unsustainable. There could be some growth to fill in those gaps, but there absolutely must be significant growth if he's to earn his current price. Don't pay for the breakout.
Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) got some good news about his elbow, but he remains a huge risk. [Risk that was realized upon the TJS announcement between deadline and publication of this article.—Ed.] Dinelson Lamet's (RHP, SD) value is all based on a perceived skillset that's never really been tested in the major leagues. With a 10-round difference between projection and ADP, he's a sleeper whose value has been eaten up by the market. Between Zach Wheeler's (RHP, PHI) risk and the move away from the best pitcher's park in the game, there's are obvious reasons for the mismatch between projection and market value.
Is Kirby Yates (RHP, SD) the best reliever in the game? Yes. Does that mean he'll finish the year as the Padres closer? No. Both his age and the Padres penchant for dealing bullpen arms both put his saves at risk. Mark Melancon (RHP, ATL) is a capable closer, but there's an equally capable guy (Will Smith) waiting behind him, making Melancon's rope rather short.
For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.
