HEAD-TO-HEAD: Consistency review for 2011

Championship rosters in head-to-head leagues are built on a combination of good fortune, good health, and most importantly consistent performance. On a weekly basis, fantasy managers search for the elusive balance of production from studs and role players alike. The Consistency Review for 2011 will highlight top performers, and will also take look around the diamond at everyday players who were a liability for H2H formats. Keep in mind, the data here reflects small sample sizes, and this analysis is not intended to predict future performance.

Methodology

The lists here apply the work of Dylan Hedges and Ron Shandler. For each player, weekly BPVs are graded as DOMinant (BPV = 50 or better), DISaster (BPV = 0 or worse), or NEUTral (between 0 and 50). The Quality/Consistency score (QC) is ((DOM - DIS) * 200).

In this analysis, weekly BPVs were compiled for batters with 500 PA, and starting pitchers with 120 IP; only 137 batters and 131 pitchers made the cut. For pitchers, the DOM%/DIS% listed are based on weekly BPV, not PQS score. The purpose is to view pitchers in a weekly scoring context, with two-start weeks in play, just like normal H2H league scoring.

Top Performers

Justin Verlander and Ryan Braun won League MVP awards, and also lead their respective QC chart. Verlander had a perfect 200 QC score, and Ryan Braun's 154 QC paced all batters.

First, here are the top batters for 2011:

Lastname		Tm	WEEKS	DOM%	NEUT%	DIS%	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Braun, Ryan		MIL	26	81%	15%	4%	154
Cabrera,Miguel		DET	27	81%	11%	7%	148
Ellsbury,Jacoby		BOS	27	78%	19%	4%	148
Kinsler,Ian		TEX	27	81%	11%	7%	148
Pujols,Albert		STL	26	77%	19%	4%	146
Reyes,Jose		NYM	23	70%	26%	4%	130
Beltran,Carlos		SF	26	73%	15%	12%	123
Victorino, Shane	PHI	25	72%	16%	12%	120
Granderson, Curtis	NYY	27	67%	26%	7%	119
Beltre, Adrian		TEX	22	73%	14%	14%	118
Cano, Robinson		NYY	27	67%	22%	11%	111
Fielder, Prince		MIL	27	74%	7%	19%	111
Kemp, Matt		LA	27	74%	7%	19%	111
Lee, Carlos		HOU	27	63%	30%	7%	111
Upton, Justin		ARI	27	70%	15%	15%	111
Tulowitzki, Troy	COL	26	73%	8%	19%	108
Hart, Corey		MIL	23	65%	22%	13%	104
Bautista, Jose		TOR	27	70%	11%	19%	104
Phillips, Brandon	CIN	27	67%	19%	15%	104
Votto, Joey		CIN	27	67%	19%	15%	104
Morrison, Logan		FLA	24	67%	17%	17%	100

Beyond the league leaders and top vote-getters from BBWA, a couple names stand out: Carlos Lee was a valuable role player in NL-only leagues, quietly posting 17 DOM / 2 DIS despite the fire sale in HOU; Logan Morrison was solid before his surprise demotion, and when he retuned from exile in August, he closed out the season with 5 DOM / 0 DIS; in the AL, Adrian Beltre and Jose Bautista were models of consistency at the hot-corner, rewarding owners with 73% and 70% DOM respectively.

Top pitchers for 2011:

Lastname		Tm	WEEKS	DOM %	NEUT %	DIS %	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Verlander, Justin	DET	26	100%	0%	0%	200
Greinke, Zack		MIL	22	95%	0%	5%	182
Kershaw, Clayton	LA	27	89%	11%	0%	178
Halladay, Roy		PHI	26	92%	4%	4%	177
Luebke, Cory		SD	14	86%	14%	0%	171
Haren, Dan		LAA	27	85%	15%	0%	170
Sabathia, CC		NYY	26	88%	8%	4%	169
Lee, Cliff		PHI	26	88%	8%	4%	169
Hernandez, Felix	SEA	26	85%	12%	4%	162
Carpenter, Chris	STL	27	78%	22%	0%	156
Nolasco, Ricky		FLA	27	81%	15%	4%	156
McCarthy, Brandon	OAK	20	75%	25%	0%	150
Morrow, Brandon		TOR	24	83%	8%	8%	150
Hamels, Cole		PHI	24	79%	17%	4%	150
Beachy, Brandon		ATL	19	84%	5%	11%	147
Niese, Jonathon		NYM	22	77%	18%	5%	145
Capuano, Chris		NYM	25	76%	20%	4%	144
Zimmermann, Jordan	WAS	21	76%	19%	5%	143
Garza, Matt		CHC	24	83%	4%	13%	142
Sanchez, Anibal		FLA	26	81%	8%	12%	138
Hudson, Daniel		ARI	26	77%	15%	8%	138
Scherzer, Max		DET	26	73%	23%	4%	138
Price, David		TAM	27	78%	11%	11%	133
Leake, Mike		CIN	21	71%	24%	5%	133
Tomlin, Josh		CLE	21	67%	33%	0%	133
Latos, Mat		SD	24	75%	17%	8%	133
Kuroda, Hiroki		LA	26	77%	12%	12%	131
Weaver, Jered		LAA	26	77%	12%	12%	131
Bumgarner, Madison	SF	26	77%	12%	12%	131
Cain, Matt		SF	26	69%	27%	4%	131
Kennedy, Ian		ARI	26	73%	19%	8%	131
Humber, Philip		CHW	23	65%	35%	0%	130

Clearly, Zach Greinke enjoyed the switch to the NL, posting 21 DOM / 1 DIS in 22 starts. It's no surprise to see aces Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, and Chris Carpenter among the eight starting with 0% DIS weeks in 2011; but the other four pitchers likely went undrafted in most leagues: Cory Luebke had 85% DOM transitioning out of the SD bullpen; Brandon McCarthy parlayed good health into a career year, with 106 BPV and 75% DOM; Josh Tomlin and Philip Humber were more heavily NEUT, but avoid DIS pitching in the AL Central.

Run Preventers

Major league managers often sacrifice production "up the middle" in exchange for steady defensive play. H2H managers must carefully weigh the risk and reward of run preventers who garner everyday at-bats. These were the best and worst batters at premium defensive positions for 2011:

Catchers:

 

Lastname		Tm	WEEKS	DOM %	NEUT %	DIS %	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Molina, Yadier		STL	27	56%	30%	15%	 81
Santana, Carlos		CLE	27	59%	15%	26%	 67
Montero, Miguel		ARI	27	48%	26%	26%	 44
								
Avila, Alex		DET	27	33%	22%	44%	-22
Buck, John		FLA	27	30%	22%	48%	-37

Yadier Molina was a dependable late round catcher for owners who waited on draft day. Alex Avila and John Buck, catchers with above-average power and everyday opportunity, posted significantly fewer DOM weeks in H2H play.

Middle Infielders:

 

Lastname		Tm	WEEKS	DOM %	NEUT %	DIS %	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Castro, Starlin		CHC	27	63%	19%	19%	 89
Zobrist, Ben		TAM	27	67%	11%	22%	 89
Pedroia, Dustin		BOS	27	63%	15%	22%	 81
Aybar, Erick		LAA	25	60%	20%	20%	 80
Rollins, Jimmy		PHI	26	58%	23%	19%	 77
							
Barney	Darwin		CHC	26	27%	31%	42%	-31
Gonzalez, Alex		ATL	27	33%	15%	52%	-37
Bartlett, Jason		SD	27	26%	30%	44%	-37
Pennington, Cliff	OAK	26	31%	15%	54%	-46
Desmond, Ian		WAS	27	22%	30%	48%	-52
Beckham, Gordon		CHW	27	22%	26%	52%	-59

Five middle infielders with QC scores of 100, or better, were listed earlier: Kinsler, Reyes, Cano, Tulowitzki, and Phillips. Behind them, there was noticeable consistency from Starlin Castro in his first full season with CHC, and also from Ben Zobrist who qualified at 2B and OF for TAM. At the bottom of the list are players who earned consistent playing time last season for their major league teams. It will be interesting to see how long clubs stick with Darwin Barney, Ian Desmond, and Gordon Beckham if they don't find more consistency in 2012.

Outlying Outfielders

Notable DIS rates from 2011:

 

Lastname		Tm	WEEKS	DOM %	NEUT %	DIS %	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Bourn, Michael		ATL	27	37%	15%	48%	-22
Rivera, Juan		LA	27	33%	22%	44%	-22
Rasmus, Colby		TOR	25	40%	8%	52%	-24
Bay, Jason		NYM	24	29%	25%	46%	-33
Stubb, sDrew		CIN	27	30%	15%	56%	-52
Jackson, Austin		DET	27	22%	26%	52%	-59
Fukudome, Kosuke	CLE	27	26%	19%	56%	-59
Ludwick, Ryan		PIT	26	23%	23%	54%	-62

Four of these outfielders were moved at the trade deadline, and none of them reached the postseason. Michael Bourn's 61 SBs lead the NL, but the second half of the season his 77% DIS made him a one-trick pony. Colby Rasmus was all-or-nothing in 2011, and mostly nothing once he arrived in TOR: 1 DOM / 5 DIS.

Pitching Disasters

These pitchers posted at least 11 DIS weeks in 2011:

 

Lastname		Tm	TOT	DOM %	NEUT %	DIS %	QC
================        ===     =====   ====    =====   ====    ===
Chatwood, Tyler		LAA	21	14%	29%	57%	-86
Penny, Brad		DET	25	16%	36%	48%	-64
Liriano, Francisco	MIN	23	43%	9%	48%	-9
Saunders, Joe		ARI	26	42%	12%	46%	-8
Westbrook, Jake		STL	27	44%	11%	44%	 0
Hellickson, Jeremy	TAM	25	36%	20%	44%	-16

AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson had two five-week stretches in 2011 with 4 DIS weeks. Tyler Chatwood and Brad Penny provided consistent performance of another sort: their miserable DOM/DIS (Chatwood 3/12 and Penny 4/12) stood in stark contrast with the aces atop the ANA and DET organizations in Haren and Verlander.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.