FACTS/FLUKES: Tellez, I. Anderson, Segura, Freeland, Crawford

Tellez flexes barrels in 2022... With 11 HR in 2021, Rowdy Tellez (1B, MIL) was a post-300 pick at a 349 ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts. In 2022, he has increased his home run pace, as he has nine HR in 144 plate appearances. How are his skills behind the results?

Year   PA  HR  xHR    BA/xBA   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX  QBaB  Brl%
====  ===  ==  ===   ========  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ====  ==== 
2018* 501  15    4  .263/.268    7   78  38/26/36  31   115  106/138   CCd   12%
2019* 514  27   20  .249/.257    8   69  39/24/38  30    99  138/114   BCc   13%
2020  127   8    7  .283/.288    9   82  46/20/34  28   123  125/ 97   BCc    8%
2021* 383  14   16  .242/.252    7   77  41/21/38  27   112  104/111   ACf   12%
2022  144   9  N/A  .244/.258    8   73  36/13/51  26   118  170/186   N/A   19%
*-Inc. MLEs

His power metrics back his power, and he's making hard contact: 

  • His career-high Brl% in the 97th percentile and elite xPX firmly support his power. While he has a 39% career FB%, his 19% career HR/F and home park (+15 LHB HR) can help his power efforts. 
  • An above-average HctX says he deserves a little better BA, as seen in his xBA. He has a .247 career BA with a 74% career ct% and 28% career h%.
  • According to Statcast, his 49.0% HardHit% is in the 87th percentile, and his xBA is in the 83rd percentile. 

With his only double-digit R$ finish in 2020, Tellez's early power skills (64 BPV) are a fact. He is supporting his increased home run power with a higher Brl% and xPX, and his home park could continue (seven home HR) to boost his HR results. The hard contact he makes should keep his BA playable. With a 75% projected PT at 1B, those fantasy managers that rostered Tellez should enjoy the power results and counting stats going forward. 


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Anderson's skills slip early... As Ian Anderson (RHP, ATL) settles into the National League with almost 200 career IP, his 2021 and 2022 results have not been as strong. Through seven games started, he has a $3 R$. How are his early 2022 skills?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA  BB%    K%  K-BB  Ball%   SwK   Vel   G/L/F    H%/S%  HR/F
====  ===  =========  ===  ====  ====  =====  ====  ====  ========  =====  ====
2018#  20  2.87/2.47  11%   26%   15%   38%    N/A   N/A     N/A    31/74   N/A
2019^ 137  4.77/4.37  12%   25%   13%   39%    N/A   N/A     N/A    32/69   N/A
2020   32  1.95/3.45  10%   30%   20%   39%   12.3  94.1  53/20/28  28/82    5%
2021  128  3.58/4.05  10%   23%   13%   39%   12.4  94.6  49/20/31  28/74   15%
2022   36  3.75/4.99  12%   16%    5%   40%   12.6  93.6  48/19/33  25/75   11%

His early skills (17 BPV) have been the lowest of his career:

  • Even with losing a tick of velocity, he's maintained his SwK with a change-up (20% SwK) and curveball (14.5% SwK) that create swings and misses. He has a 23% career K%. 
  • An elevated Ball% hasn't helped, and his BB% is in the 19th percentile. Even with a 10% career BB%, his Ball% carries some risk. 
  • He has a 49% career GB%, and he has a 58% career GB% with his change-up. He has posted a 13% career HR/F, 27% career H%, and 3.96 career xERA. 

While he can struggle with control at times, his change-up does a good job of missing bats and inducing ground balls. With a low fastball spin that is missing fewer bats (6% SwK), his 2022 results may not feature the upside from his early first-round pick status in the 2016 MLB Draft. Even though he can help roster's ERA, his rising WHIP could make him more of a mid-rotation arm for most formats. With his below-average skills, another single-digit R$ season looks possible. 

 

Segura starts quickly... To start the 2022 season, Jean Segura (2B/SS, PHI) has built on his 2021 success. With a $21 R$ that put him near pick 200 in 2022 fantasy drafts, he's providing across-the-board contributions. Can he continue to help rosters?

Year   PA  HR   SB    BA/xBA   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX   Spd  Brl%
====  ===  ==  ===   ========  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ====  ==== 
2018  632  10   20  .304/.272    5   88  51/19/29  33    84   63/ 59   123    4%
2019  618  12   10  .280/.291    5   87  52/21/27  30   100   72/ 61   112    3%
2020  217   7    2  .266/.240   11   77  48/18/34  31    96   80/ 64   156    6%
2021  567  14    9  .290/.275    7   85  52/19/29  32   100   79/ 68   107    6%
2022  133   6    5  .293/.271    7   83  50/20/30  31   112   84/ 71    78    7%

Yes, he can help in all five categories: 

  • Although his Spd has dropped, his Sprint Speed is in the 64th percentile, and he has an 83% SB% with a 17% SBO% in 2022. He has a 136 career Spd. 
  • An increase in HctX pairs well his ct%, and he has a .285 career BA. 
  • His below-average xPX and Brl% in the 42nd percentile have some doubts about his 19% HR/F when compared to his 9% career HR/F. When he hits a fly ball, he has an 89.9 MPH exit velocity with a 299 feet average fly ball distance in 2022. 

Even if his power pace slows with a lower HR/F, there is plenty to like in his variety of skills. As a high-contact hitter that makes hard contact, he can provide an above-average BA. While he has lost some Spd early, his 20% career SBO% and 75% career SB% back a chance at a double-digit SB season. Add in some counting stats, and his well-rounded profile fills in nicely on most fantasy rosters. 

 

Freeland's ratios can sting... When we last checked in on Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL), he was in the middle of a 2021 second half run that featured a 3.80 ERA. His 2022 results have not been near the same quality. Are there signs of hope in his skills?

Year   IP   ERA/xERA  BB%    K%  K-BB  Ball%   SwK   Vel   G/L/F    H%/S%  HR/F
====  ===  =========  ===  ====  ====  =====  ====  ====  ========  =====  ====
2018  202  2.85/4.19   8%   20%   12%   36%    9.6  91.6  46/19/35  29/80    8%
2019  104  6.73/5.30   8%   17%    8%   36%    9.9  91.9  47/21/33  32/62   22%
2020   71  4.33/4.72   8%   15%    8%   37%    9.4  91.9  52/23/35  31/73   16%
2021  121  4.33/4.35   7%   20%   13%   36%    9.2  91.4  45/21/34  32/75   16%
2022   43  4.85/4.42   7%   17%   11%   36%   10.7  90.6  46/26/28  37/70   10%

His below-average skills (79 BPV) aren't that hopeful:

  • Throwing his slider (25.8%) more often has slightly boosted SwK. He has an 18% career K%. 
  • While his H% hovers above his 31% career H%, his 41% HardHit% against is in the 39th percentile. He has a 48% career GB% with a 4.39 career xERA. 
  • His HardHit% allowed and an xwOBA in the 24th percentile could keep his WHIP elevated. Pitching in Coors Field can add to the hits with a +12 LHB BA and a +22% RHB BA. 

Even though he did improve his 2021 second-half skills, his early 2022 skills don't offer many hopeful signs ahead for the lefty. Although a H% swing could help his ratios, his home park and the number of hard-hit balls he allows could continue to keep his ratios higher than MLB average. Outside maybe a few mono leagues, his results can hurt more than help. 

 

Crawford has a slow start to 2022... In his 2021 season, Brandon Crawford (SS, SF) posted a career year with five-category contributions and a $30 R$. His 2022 season hasn't been much of an encore so far, as he has a $9 R$. Can he turn it around in 2022?

Year   PA  HR/SB  xHR    BA/xBA   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX  Spd  SBO%
====  ===  =====  ===   ========  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ===  ====
2018  594  14/ 4   13  .254/.258    8   77  44/25/31  31   103   88/ 91   77    6%
2019  560  11/ 3   15  .228/.252    9   77  48/23/28  28   104   69/106   78    4%
2020  193   8/ 1    7  .256/.259    8   73  42/23/35  31   102  127/123   72    8%
2021  549  24/11   33  .298/.266   10   78  40/19/41  34   101  126/137  103   10%
2022  148   3/ 1  N/A  .223/.234    9   78  46/18/36  27    55   71/ 61  106    6%

Even though his career skills support improvement, his results will likely stay below his 2021 performance: 

  • A below-average xPX, lower FB%, and a lower HctX have contributed to a slower power pace in 2022. After his 12% Brl% in 2021, he has an 8% Brl% in 2022. When hitting the ball in the air, he has a 90.2 MPH exit velocity (94.8 MPH in 2021) with a 301 feet average fly ball distance. (333 feet in 2022) He has a 34% career FB% with a 10% career HR/F, and he has a 108 career xPX with a 102 career HctX. 
  • Even with a lower HctX, his ct% is consistent. According to Statcast, his 29.7% HardHit% is in the tenth percentile. He has a 30% career h% with a .253 career xBA.  
  • His SBO% has dipped to his 6% career SBO%, and he has a 56% career SBO%. 

While some better h% fortune should help improve his BA to improve, his 2022 skills (20 BPV) claim that most of his results are a fact. Although his career skills say his HR pace should pick up, his lack of SB success could keep his SB total below his 2021 SB result. After hitting fourth in the lineup earlier in 2022, he has been hitting sixth or seventh in the San Francisco lineup over the last week. His ability to contribute in most categories with a chance at a double-digit R$ should keep him viable for most leagues. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.