FACTS/FLUKES: Rosario, Bailey, Santana, H. Robles, G. Allen

Rosario nears UP: 30 HR... With an UP: 30 HR from the 2019 Baseball ForecasterEddie Rosario (OF, MIN) moved up draft boards with his .288, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 87 R, and 8 SB finish from 2018. Through 439 at-bats in 2019, he's closing in on 30 HR. The outfielder's .282, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 74 R, and 3 SB performance has led to $22 worth of R$ in 2019. Is a possible career-high HR total a fact?

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ====  =======  ====  ===  ===
2015  453  13/11  .267  .245    3   74  39/20/41    95  120/110   10%  176  19%
2016  335  10/ 5  .269  .242    3   73  46/19/34    89  100/102   12%  139  10%
2017  542  27/ 9  .290  .281    6   80  42/20/37   103  119/121   16%  107  13%
2018  559  24/ 8  .288  .259    5   81  36/20/44   109  108/126   12%  104   7%
2019  439  27/ 3  .282  .282    4   85  37/20/43   115  105/122   17%   91   4%

Yes, Rosario's above-average xPX and HctX back his HR total: 

  • He continues to improve his HctX, and pairing his FB% and above-average xPX with a 48% Pull% backs his power. His 7.1% Brls/PA ranks 93rd in MLB, and his 93.4 mph exit velocity on fly balls has carried over from 2018. Even with a 14% career hr/f, his power metrics support a 30+ HR season in the current MLB environment. 
  • His ct% gains with a steady LD% support his above-average BA, and his xBA says he can provide BA value.
  • The Spd and SBO declines don't pair well with his below-average bb% and .311 career-OBP. With fewer running opportunities, he is on pace for the lowest SB season of his career. 

The outfielder's skills (63 BPV) are backed by an increasing ct% and a steady LD%. With a HctX bump, he can continue to help rosters with his above-average BA. His career-best HR pace is a fact, as his above-average xPX, HctX, and FB% support his 30+ HR power in 2019. Although his Spd and SBO declines with fewer SB may cut into his R$, his skills and three consecutive $20+ R$ seasons could have him close to the Top 60 picks in 2020 drafts. 

 

Bailey's below-average skills improve slightly... Kansas City traded Homer Bailey (RHP, OAK) to Oakland in July, and his skills have improved in August. The ratios on the year haven't been as kind, as he owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 128 IP. Does he have the skills to sustain his August success?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%/S%  hr/f  BPV 
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  
2015   11  5.56  5.64  3.2   2.4  0.8  63%   7%  52/17/31  31/76   23%  -13
2016   23  6.65  3.67  2.7  10.6  3.9  54%  10%  45/30/25  47/63   11%  139
2017   91  6.43  5.11  4.2   6.6  1.6  61%  10%  45/27/28  35/62   13%   30
2018  106  6.09  5.03  2.8   6.3  2.3  62%   9%  43/24/33  34/68   19%   60
2019  128  5.06  4.60  3.3   8.2  2.5  63%  11%  44/23/33  32/66   13%   80

Even with a 105 BPV in August, his 74 career BPV and 4.75 career xERA cast doubt on his current run:

  • The right-hander has improved his SwK with a split-finger fastball (19% SwK) and a slider (10% SwK) that can miss bats. His 8.2 Dom is a reasonable landing spot, as his SwK has an 8.2 xDom in the 50th percentile.
  • Although he owns an above-average FpK, his Ctl has stayed near league average. His 44% hard-contact rate allowed has contributed to a WHIP that has inflated rosters. In a small sample 23 IP, his 69% FpK and 1.9 Ctl in August have helped his 1.07 WHIP. His 3.0 career Ctl and 1.47 projected WHIP tell a different story. 
  • While his GB% can provide some ERA aid, his current xERA and 4.75 career xERA cast a cloud on his 3.86 ERA in August. On the plus side, his hard contact allowed has fallen in August, and he has posted a 20% IFFB% for the month. 

With two pitches that can create swings and misses, the right-hander's improved Dom is a fact, as seen in his xDom. Even with his FpK and Ctl improvements in August, his career Ctl makes it doubtful that he can continue his recent success. While the Oakland Coliseum can help pitchers cut down on home runs, his xERA and 5.29 projected ERA see an ERA that can inflate ratios. With below-average skills (80 BPV), it could be difficult to sustain his August success. 

 

Santana keeps slugging... Coming into 2019, Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) was losing R$ since his $19 R$ performance from 2016. He's back to slugging like it's 2016, as he is hitting .292 with 30 HR, 79 RBI, 91 R, and 4 SB in 452 at-bats. How are his skills behind the improved results?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA    vL/vR    bb%  ct%    G/L/F   HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  =========  ===  ===  ========  ====  =======  ====
2015  550  19  .231  .252  .755/.750   16   78  45/18/37   101  108/ 95   12%
2016  582  34  .259  .281  .742/.915   14   83  43/16/41   122  129/122   17%
2017  571  23  .259  .278  .777/.844   13   84  41/20/39   112  106/102   12%
2018  560  24  .229  .253  .816/.747   16   83  40/16/44   101  101/112   12%
2019  452  30  .292  .287  .985/.951   17   82  47/16/37   125  122/117   22%

His strong skills (84 BPV) back his increased HR: 

  • Even with fewer fly balls, his HctX growth and above-average xPX back his power. His 6.8% Brls/PA is above-average (108th in MLB), and his 93.0 mph exit velocity on fly balls has remained consistent.  
  • He's stinging the ball with plenty of HctX, and his above-average ct% and 1.16 Eye contribute to an above-average BA and an elite .413 OBP. While a h% increase has also helped his efforts, his xBA shows his above-average BA is deserved. 
  • Although a 35% h% vL has aided his cause, he owns a 48% hard-contact rate vL, albeit with a 57% GB% vL. His 102 PX vL is in line with his 101 PX vL from 2018. 

Santana's return to Cleveland with 30 HR is supported with increased HctX, an above-average Brls/PA, and his above-average xPX. Even with more ground balls vL, he's hitting the ball hard with his highest HctX since 2010. With his HctX and strong plate discipline, his career-high BA has been a fact, and his elite OBP and strong bb% support his 84 BPV. His career-high $25 R$ has provided plenty a nice profit for fantasy owners in 2019, which could increase his acquisition cost in 2020. 

 

Can Robles continue saves run?... When we checked on Hansel Robles (RHP, LAA) in May, there were some signs for "caution" about his FpK and home runs allowed. With four wins, 18 saves, 57 strikeouts, a 2.78 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP in 58 IP, he has added $20 R$ to fantasy rosters. Has the right-hander taken a step forward?

Year  IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%/S%  hr/f  BPV   LI
====  ==  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ====
2015  54  3.67  3.64  3.0  10.2  3.4  60%  13%  33/18/49  24/70   12%  113  1.02
2016  78  3.48  4.33  4.2   9.8  2.4  59%  12%  30/29/41  32/77    8%   73  1.07
2017  57  4.92  4.72  4.6   9.5  2.1  54%   9%  34/22/44  27/68   15%   59  1.11
2018  56  3.70  4.41  4.0   9.5  2.4  57%  11%  35/24/41  31/80   14%   75  0.99
2019  58  2.78  4.22  2.3   8.8  3.8  60%  11%  38/21/41  31/79    8%  112  1.14

The results have, but his xERA and career Ctl still raise questions about his current performance:

  • The right-hander pairs his 97.2 mph velocity on his four-seam fastball (10% SwK) with a change-up (19% SwK) that creates swings and misses. His SwK points to a Dom that finishes close to a strikeout per inning. 
  • Although he has bumped up his FpK, his 3.7 career Ctl and 3.0 Ctl in the second half say his control could increase in 2020. 
  • Reducing his exit velocity on fly balls from 91.7 mph in 2018 to 88.7 mph in 2019 has helped his hr/f, but his xERA suggests he has had some good fortune (75% career-S%) too. 
  • Saving 18 games in 21 chances points to 23 projected saves. 

Robles's strikeouts can continue, as he supports his SwK with his change-up and fastball. Even though his Ctl has improved, his 3.7 career Ctl suggests that his control may not be as sharp in 2020. While cutting down on his exit velocity allowed is a good sign going forward, his xERA points out that the ratio success wasn't all earned, which could lead to a higher ERA in 2020. Even if he has higher ratios, his above-average Sv% supports ninth-inning chances. Although his strong skills are a fact, his ratios could increase in 2020. 

 

Allen looks for chances... After stealing 17 bases in the second half of 2018, Greg Allen (OF, CLE) was a popular pick for late speed in 2019 drafts. Unfortunately, the playing time hasn't worked out as well, as he was limited to 65 first-half at-bats in 2019. His stolen base pace has slowed down too, and his .234, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 26 R, and 3 SB performance in 171 at-bats has only provided a $2 R$. Has he lost some speed?

Year   AB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  SB
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ====  ===  ===  ==
2016^ 145  .269   N/A   10   82     N/A    32   N/A   76/N/A   N/A  122  28%  11
2017* 293  .240  .218    6   76  58/ 8/35  31    99   62/ 31   11%  113  29%  18
2018* 436  .260  .241    6   75  47/24/29  34   101   66/ 84    3%  126  38%  30
2019  171  .234  .255    4   78  48/20/32  28    94   74/ 72   10%  152  15%   3
*-Inc. MLEs
^AA MLEs

Allen's Spd remains strong, but fewer SBO and OBP have cut into his value: 

  • His Spd skill vouches for chances, but his decreasing SBO and his 60% SB% on five chances tempers SB expectations. With a below-average bb% and a sub-.300 OBP, he has some work to do. 
  • Fewer LD% with a lower HctX has not helped his BA, but a h% swing has hurt his efforts. His xBA says he has the skills to provide a league-average BA. 
  • While an 18% h% vL has limited his results, his 58% GB% with a 27% hard contact rate is not encouraging. He had some success in MiLB vL, but he owns a .502 career-OPS vL in the majors. 
  • His below-average xPX, HctX, and 2.7% Brls/PA (341st in MLB) say he's not much of a power threat. 

As a late-round speedster, Allen's results have not helped rosters in 2019. He still owns elite Spd, but his falling SBO and lower SB% have limited his speed value. He will need to work on his bb% and OBP to rebound in 2020. His batting average hasn't helped either, as a h% drop and lower HctX have limited his R$, even though his xBA points to a BA closer to league average. Even with some poor fortune vL, his GB% with fewer hard-hit balls may not help in the future. With below-average skills (29 BPV), he will need to improve his SB% with more SBO to qualify as a one-trick pony. 


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