DAILY MATCHUPS: E-Rod, Bailey among Tuesday's top starters

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: All 30 teams have a game on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 1:05pm when the Nationals host the Phillies in the first game of a double-header. The Royals hosting the Braves is the lone interleague game on the slate today. The weather forecast looks clear for all games. 

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Gerrit Cole (R) HOU @SEA 5.86 6.62 5.35 6.34 5.11 4 3 4 5 4
  Max Scherzer (R) WAS vPHI 3.11 3.46 2.32 3.66 2.99 2 3 3 3 3
  Jack Flaherty (R) STL @ARI 2.84 3.06 2.83 3.21 2.26 3 5 5 3 4
  Michael Clevinger (R) CLE vCHW 2.23 4.05 1.77 2.46 0.65 5 3 4 4 3
  Sonny Gray (R) CIN vMIL 1.93 2.93 1.87 2.01 0.89 2 3 4 4 5
  Rich Hill (L) LA @SD 1.83 1.28 1.73 1.84 2.46 5 1 3 2 2
  Jake Odorizzi (R) MIN @DET 1.70 2.55 1.32 1.99 0.94 3 4 2 4 3
  Eduardo Rodriguez (L) BOS @TEX 1.66 2.16 1.54 1.70 1.25 2 4 3 5 4
  Aaron Nola (R) PHI @WAS 1.44 1.97 1.15 1.14 1.48 5 1 1 5 0
  Madison Bumgarner (L) SF vCOL 1.43 1.45 1.29 2.40 0.58 4 0 3 3 3
  Noah Syndergaard (R) NYM vMIA 1.29 1.48 1.18 1.29 1.21 2 5 2 0 2
  Homer Bailey (R) OAK @LAA 1.25 1.46 0.88 0.93 1.74 1 3 3 2 5
  Masahiro Tanaka (R) NYY @TAM 1.23 0.63 1.27 2.11 0.89 5 1 0 2 4
  Kyle Hendricks (R) CHC @PIT 0.82 0.25 1.13 1.50 0.38 1 4 3 1 3
  Dylan Bundy (R) BAL @TOR 0.73 1.91 0.38 0.62 TBD 1 1 1 3 2
  Julio Teheran (R) ATL @KC 0.53 0.98 0.30 -0.33 -1.26 1 1 3 1 2

Sonny Gray (RHP, CIN) is closing the season strong as he has thrown a PQS-DOM in each of his last three starts. He owns a 2.86 xERA in his four starts against the Brewers this season, two of which have resulted in a PQS-DOM. In his 15 home starts this season he is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 81 IP. He is shutting down right-handed batters as they have just a .195 BA and .593 OPS against him.

Jake Odorizzi (RHP, MIN) is set to face a terrible Tigers lineup who owns a .684 OPS at home, third worst in MLB. Over his last four starts he has been pitching well with a 34/5 K/BB and two of those have resulted in a PQS-DOM. He is limiting right-handed batters to a .197 BA and .592 OPS. Two of his three starts against the Tigers this season have resulted in a PQS-DOM. In five career starts at Comerica Park, he is 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 28 IP. 

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, BOS) has been pitching great down the stretch as four of his last six starts have resulted in a PQS-DOM. In four September starts he is flashing tremendous skills (2.82 xERA, 13.7 Dom, 4.9 Cmd, 17% SwK, 193 BPV). Pitching on the road has been his biggest challenge this season as in 16 starts he is 9-4, although with a 4.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. 

Homer Bailey (RHP, OAK) tossed a PQS-2 versus the Angels way back on April 28 in his lone start against them this season. In 12 starts since joining the Athletics he is 6-2 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 68 IP. He is coming off an incredibly strong PQS-5 in his last start where he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings. He is holding left-handed batters to a .215 BA and .651 OPS. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Mitch Keller (R) PIT vCHC 0.43 1.16 0.37 1.07 -0.88 2 2 3 2 3
  Adrian Houser (R) MIL @CIN 0.28 0.60 0.58 0.94 -1.39 1 3 3 1 3
  Hector Santiago (L) CHW vCLE 0.16 -0.12 0.33 1.93 -1.49 2 1
  Spencer Turnbull (R) DET vMIN -0.11 0.95 -0.16 0.20 -1.44 0 1 1 2 3
  Jeff Hoffman (R) COL @SF -0.12 0.80 0.30 -0.33 -1.26 1 1 3 1 2
  Brendan McKay (L) TAM vNYY -0.16 0.79 -0.21 0.20 -1.43 2 0 4 1 3
  Danny Duffy (L) KC vATL -0.21 0.86 -0.50 -0.38 -0.83 1 3 3 3 5

Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) has had a rough rookie season if you just look at his surface stats, going 1-5 with 7.74 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 10 starts. A closer look reveals that he has been done in by the combination of a 48% H% and 58% S% and that his skills have been really good (3.95 xERA, 12.1 Dom, 4.1 Cmd, 158 BPV). Over his last five starts he owns a strong 34/4 K/BB. 

Adrian Houser (RHP, MIL) made a start against the Reds earlier this season which resulted in a PQS-0. As a starter he has not been impressive, going 2-7 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 73 IP. His splits are strong as left-handed batters have a .846 OPS against him while right-handed batters have only a .642 OPS. The Reds offense has struggled in September where they are averaging just 3.5 runs per game and have a .217 BA. 

Brendan McKay (LHP, TAM) is not expected to earn a win today no matter how well he pitches. Across his last four starts he has been limited to around the 60 pitch mark, making it difficult for him to get through four innings. One of his three PQS-DIS starts this season came against the Yankees back in July. Right-handed batters have been hitting him hard with a .289 BA and .888 OPS. 

Danny Duffy (LHP, KC) comes into this start off of a PQS-5 where he tossed seven shutout innings. Back on July 23 he took on the Braves where he threw a PQS-4, striking out 11 across six innings. Over his last four starts he is 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, however in that time he owns a 4.43 xERA. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Mike Leake (R) ARI vSTL -0.55 -0.32 -0.01 0.88 -2.76 3 1 2 3 2
  Sandy Alcantara (R) MIA @NYM -0.57 0.86 -0.75 -0.68 -1.71 2 3 5 4 0
  Ariel Jurado (R) TEX vBOS -1.00 -0.83 -0.86 -0.21 -2.08 3 1 0 1 1
  Dillon Peters (L) LAA vOAK -1.47 -1.04 -1.62 -1.23 -1.99 0 4 0 0 0
  Erick Fedde (R) WAS vPHI -1.51 -1.43 -1.22 -1.39 -1.98 2 0 1 0 0
  Ronald Bolanos (R) SD vLA -2.13 0.23 -2.26 -3.53 -2.97 2 1
  Justin Dunn (R) SEA vHOU -2.63 -0.36 -2.21 -2.33 -5.61 2 2
  Cole Irvin (L) PHI @WAS -2.88 -2.29 -2.40 -3.10 -3.72 5 1 1

Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) receives a weak start rating despite throwing a PQS-DOM in four of his last eight starts and also in two of his last three. He has made four starts this season versus the Mets which have resulted in a PQS-0,5,2,2. In those four starts he owns a 4.70 xERA. His four career starts at Citi Field have not been terrible as he is 0-2, but with a 3.28 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. 

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.