DAILY MATCHUPS: Darvish is a top Tuesday starter

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: All 30 teams have a game on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 6:35pm when the Yankees host the Angels. There are three interleague games on the schedule, with the Pirates hosting the Mariners, the Red Sox hosting the Giants, and the Dodgers hosting the Rays. The weather looks clear for today's slate of games. 

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Justin Verlander (R) HOU vTEX 3.52 4.48 2.84 4.12 2.64 4 3 5 5 3
  Yu Darvish (R) CHC vCIN 1.92 3.17 1.67 2.42 0.42 5 2 4 4 4
  Patrick Corbin (L) WAS @STL 1.64 2.45 2.02 1.67 0.42 3 5 2 2 1
  Ross Detwiler (L) CHW @MIN 1.38 0.75 1.21 2.27 1.30 1 0 3 1 1
  Dallas Keuchel (L) ATL vPHI 1.19 0.81 1.50 0.94 1.49 2 4 2 1 3
  Brandon Woodruff (R) MIL vSD 1.12 0.15 1.75 1.72 0.86 3 5 3 4 0
  Mitch Keller (R) PIT vSEA 1.07 1.13 1.03 1.23 0.90 1 2 2 3 2
  Sonny Gray (R) CIN @CHC 0.91 2.53 0.93 1.08 -0.92 3 2 3 4 4
  Ross Stripling (R) LA vTAM 0.81 0.01 1.06 1.49 0.67 3 2 1 2 1
  Marcus Stroman (R) NYM @COL 0.80 0.65 0.53 0.55 1.48 1 2 2 2 4
  Chris Paddack (R) SD @MIL 0.54 1.78 0.48 1.25 -1.36 2 0 4 4 4

Yu Darvish (RHP, CHC) has been in fantastic form over his last five starts, as he is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 46/4 K/BB in 31.1 IP. Four of those last five starts have resulted in a PQS-DOM. His hot stretch actually goes much further back, as over his last 12 starts he has shown outstanding skills (2.73 xERA, 221 BPV). He has made four starts against the Reds this season, with half of those resulting in a PQS-DOM. Right-handed batters have been limited to a .177 BA and .609 OPS when facing him. 

Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM) has not been in his best form since joining the Mets, as over his eight starts he is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. He owns a 4.40 xERA over those eight starts and just one has resulted in a PQS-DOM. His only career start at Coors Field came back on June 1 and resulted in a PQS-2. The Rockies are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home and have an outstanding .887 OPS. Left-handed batters have hit him very well, with a .301 BA and .809 OPS. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Alex Young (L) ARI vMIA 0.50 0.45 0.54 0.66 0.34 1 2 2 5 0
  Trent Thornton (R) TOR @BAL 0.40 0.40 -0.15 0.54 0.81 4 1 1 2 2
  Caleb Smith (L) MIA @ARI 0.32 1.78 -0.23 0.58 -0.84 2 1 2 4 0
  Miles Mikolas (R) STL vWAS 0.15 0.19 0.55 1.41 -1.56 1 4 3 3 2
  Nathan Eovaldi (R) BOS vSF 0.15 TBD 0.24 0.01 0.34 0 1 3 2 2
  Adam Plutko (R) CLE vDET -0.04 0.47 -0.63 0.45 -0.46 4 4 0 3 0
  Spencer Turnbull (R) DET @CLE -0.18 0.27 -0.32 -0.62 -0.04 0 0 1 1 2
  Brett Anderson (L) OAK vKC -0.22 -1.05 0.24 -0.61 0.55 0 0 1 1 0
  Blake Snell (L) TAM @LA -0.44 -0.26 -0.11 -0.09 -1.28 1 3 1 1 4
  Vincent Velasquez (R) PHI @ATL -0.46 1.02 -0.77 -0.46 -1.63 3 0 2 2 1
  Marco Gonzales (L) SEA @PIT -0.47 -0.27 -0.46 -0.18 -0.98 1 4 0 0 4

Alex Young (LHP, ARI) had a poor effort when facing the Marlins earlier this season, with that start resulting in a PQS-0. Over his last three starts, he has been fantastic, with a 3.08 xERA, 188 BPV, and 20/3 K/BB in 15 IP. He is limiting left-handed batters to a .139 BA and .531 OPS. The opposing Marlins only average 3.4 runs per game on the road, where they have an MLB-worst .652 OPS. 

Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) threw a PQS-2 versus the Nationals earlier this season, however, that start came on the road, where he has been terrible. In his 14 home starts, he has been much better, going 5-5 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 90 IP. Over the second half of the season, his skills have been solid in 13 starts (3.94 xERA, 8.0 Dom, 5.2 Cmd, 126 BPV). 

Adam Plutko (RHP, CLE) will be making his fourth start of the season against the Tigers. His latest start against them on August 27 resulted in a strong PQS-4. The Tigers have a .237 BA and .680 OPS versus right-handed pitching, which is second-worst in MLB. He finally starts at home today, as each of his last seven starts have come on the road. In his seven home starts this season, he is 3-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. 

Brett Anderson (LHP, OAK) has not been able to throw a PQS-DOM in 29 starts this season, and each of his last five starts has resulted in a PQS-DIS. He has earned 12 wins this season despite a 4.96 xERA, 4.6 Dom, 1.8 Cmd, and 46 BPV. Home has not treated him well, as he is just 4-6 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 14 starts. Facing the Royals is a great matchup for him, as they have a poor .684 OPS versus left-handed pitching. 

Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) has been up and down across his last nine starts, as four have resulted in a PQS-DOM and another four have resulted in a PQS-DIS. He has somehow earned 15 wins on the season despite a poor 5.16 xERA. Four of his last five starts on the road have resulted in a PQS-DIS. He receives a dream matchup, as the Pirates' .680 OPS versus left-handed pitching is the worst in MLB. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Lance Lynn (R) TEX @HOU -0.51 1.69 -0.65 0.08 -3.14 2 3 3 1 4
  Logan Webb (R) SF @BOS -0.62 -0.57 -0.58 -0.50 -0.84 3 0 3 0 2
  Jose Suarez (L) LAA @NYY -0.62 0.10 -1.30 -0.60 -0.66 1 0 1 1 0
  Jorge Lopez (R) KC @OAK -0.66 -0.34 -0.88 -0.73 -0.67 0 2 3 4 1
  Luis Severino (R) NYY vLAA -0.68 -1.02 -0.86 -0.87 0.04  
  Martin Perez (L) MIN vCHW -1.12 -0.44 -0.85 -1.38 -1.80 1 4 0 1 0
  Chandler Shepherd (R) BAL vTOR -1.63 -1.64 -1.78 -1.77 -1.31  
  Timothy Melville (R) COL vNYM -1.67 -1.09 -2.09 -1.52 -1.98 2 2 0 4 0

Lance Lynn (RHP, TEX) is struggling with the control recently, as after a stretch in June-July where he walked 11 in 73 IP, he has walked 23 over his last 48 IP. He has actually enjoyed opposing the Astros this season, as two of his three starts against them have resulted in a PQS-DOM. He is limiting right-handed batters to a .218 BA and .647 OPS. 

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.