DAILY MATCHUPS: Corbin headlines the final Monday slate of the season

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: The final Monday slate of the season features a small group of games, including three in the NL and two in the AL. The PHI at WAS contest starts things off at 7:05 pm EST, with the STL at ARI matchup being the last to get started at 9:40 pm EST. There are no significant chances of precipitation according to current weather forecasts. Be sure to check the latest forecasts prior to setting your lineup(s). 

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Strong Starts (top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Patrick Corbin (L) WAS vPHI 2.30 2.93 2.08 2.22 1.95 5 2 2 1 3
  Blake Snell (L) TAM vBOS 1.53 1.30 1.50 1.36 1.95 3 1 1 4 3
  Steven Matz (L) NYM vMIA 0.98 1.24 0.80 0.98 0.90 3 2 1 3 0
  Dylan Bundy (R) BAL @TOR 0.93 1.96 0.53 0.91 0.30 1 1 1 3 2
  Adam Wainwright (R) STL @ARI 0.56 -0.45 0.92 1.19 0.59 1 3 4 3 3

Blake Snell (LHP, TAM) allowed 0 ER over 2 IP with 4 K and 0 BB in his return from the injured list against the Dodgers last Tuesday. He threw 26 pitches, and finished his day off in the bullpen, getting another 10 or so pitches of work in. He’ll once again be on a fairly strict PC limit today; his stellar Wins rating is likely not taking that piece into account. He registered a PQS-4 against the Red Sox on June 9, but they’re still toting out the majority of their regulars. Snell should be in line to post some quality numbers, but his limitations are certainly something that need to be taken into account.

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) has been a disaster on the road this season; compiling a 4.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 Cmd, and an 8/42% DOM/DIS over 12 GS. This will be his fourth turn against the Blue Jays this year. In his previous 3 GS he logged a 2.12 ERA (3.90 xERA), 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 Cmd, and 106 BPV – resulting in a pair of PQS-DEC and a PQS-4. The TOR offense has been a Top-5 unit over the last seven days, but remain a bottom-tier unit on the road. Bundy has an 11.1 Dom and 13% SwK against the Blue Jays, and the TOR offense totes one of the worst ct% against RHP this season (75%). He has a solid WHIP rating for today, but he posted 5 BB against the Blue Jays in his last start and has a 58% FpK this month.

Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) has yielded a total of 3 ER over his last 5 GS (30.2 IP) and owns a 1.7 Ctl (64% FpK) over 4 GS this month. His positive ERA and WHIP ratings reflect his recent performance, and his opponent (ARI), will be without Ketel Marte; which has placed them on a downward trajectory over the last week. He’s been susceptible to blow ups on the road (7/62% DOM/DIS), and his 4.59 xERA (76 BPV) in the 2H demonstrates that his 3.28 ERA in the 2H could be at risk. His upside is very limited as well; he’s posted a 4.7 Dom and 6% SwK this month, and the Diamondbacks do a decent job of making contact.

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Alex Young (L) ARI vSTL 0.27 0.34 0.78 0.34 -0.37 2 2 5 0 1
  Caleb Smith (L) MIA @NYM -0.22 1.27 -0.75 0.01 -1.40 1 2 4 0 1
  Clay Buchholz (R) TOR vBAL -0.32 -0.54 -0.19 0.27 -0.80 2 2 1 2 1

Alex Young (LHP, ARI) looks to put an end to his two game PQS-DIS streak as he takes on a Cardinals offense that’s been middle of the pack against LHP and over the last week. His 13% SwK has only produced a 7.8 Dom in the 2H. The Cardinals do a great job of making contact against southpaws (22% K), and Young’s rating is only slightly positive in the K category. Outside of a 4 BB performance in his last outing, Young had done a great job of limiting free passes (2 BB or fewer in 11 of 14 GS prior, 60% FpK, 3.0 Ctl this season). There’s some intrigue with Young here, but with the Cardinals in the thick of a playoff race and Young logging a PQS-DIS in three of his last four GS at home, there’s a lot of ways that this could go wrong.

Caleb Smith (LHP, MIA) has been rather pedestrian on the road this season (4.94 ERA), as well as over his last 4 GS; allowing 16 ER with 20 K and 10 BB over 21.1 IP – resulting in a pair of PQS-DIS and two PQS-2 outings. His Cmd is exactly the same at home and on the road (3.1), but there’s a stark contrast in his hr/9 (2.5 on the road, 1.2 at home). The NYM have been a league average unit over the last week, but sit Top-6 in wRC+ against LHP for the season (112). Smith has logged a PQS-3 and a PQS-4 against the Mets this season, but he hasn’t faced them since July 12 and both outings have come at home. Outside of a nice K rating, Smith is a very risky proposition today.

Clay Buchholz (RHP, TOR) logged a PQS-1 against the Orioles on Wednesday, but will look for better results this time around. Since returning from the injured list (5 GS) he’s tallied a 6.39 ERA (4.91 xERA), 1.42 WHIP, 2.8 Cmd, and 78 BPV. The BAL offense has heated up of late, but continue to sit near the bottom against RHP. Buchholz has an 11% Swk (7.2 Dom) and 62% FpK (0.7 Ctl) this month, and while the Orioles sit league average in ct% (77%), they’re among the league’s worst in BB% against RHP (7%), hence the positive WHIP grade for Buchholz. There’s little upside here, and he’s failed to go more than 4 IP in each of his last 2 GS; but the matchup alone is enough to warrant consideration despite his results in his last performance.  

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Zach Eflin (R) PHI @WAS -0.89 -0.31 -0.68 -0.46 -2.12 1 3 2 2 3
  Jhoulys Chacin (R) BOS @TAM -1.52 -0.56 -1.57 -1.98 -1.96 0 2 3 2 2

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.      

                 Overall SP Rating
                    SP      by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES and ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10 p.m. ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 

 

 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.