DAILY MATCHUPS: Bieber, Ray, Strasburg earn top figures for Wednesday

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: Wednesday’s slate finds all 30 major league teams in action. Nine days games tilt the schedule nearly two-thirds into the afternoon. Weather-wise, a slim chance of rain dots Wednesday’s venues with as much frequency. No major weather issues are expected, however. The interleague portion of the day’s action lays out thusly: MIN at MIL, TAM at SD, OAK at SF, PIT at LAA, STL at KC. Cleveland Shane Bieber—and his 3.16 xERA—heads the Matchup Ratings.

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Strong Starts (top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Shane Bieber (R) CLE vBOS 2.70 3.33 2.05 2.76 2.64 2 5 3 4 3
  Robbie Ray (L) ARI @COL 1.68 2.86 0.99 1.28 1.58 2 2 2 3 3
  Stephen Strasburg (R) WAS vCIN 1.40 2.46 0.93 1.87 0.32 3 4 5 2 4
  Wade Miley (L) HOU @CHW 1.08 0.75 1.08 0.97 1.50 2 5 3 2 1
  Chris Archer (R) PIT @LAA 0.96 2.25 0.21 0.54 0.82 3 2 0 4 3
  Steven Matz (L) NYM @ATL 0.92 1.34 1.00 1.37 -0.05 0 3 5 2 3
  Aaron Nola (R) PHI vCHC 0.83 2.34 0.29 0.74 -0.07 1 5 2 5 1
  Marco Gonzales (L) SEA @DET 0.78 0.61 0.49 0.92 1.09 2 3 5 0 4
  Tyler Beede (R) SF vOAK 0.67 1.46 0.75 0.35 0.13 5 2 0 0 3
  Trevor Bauer (R) CIN @WAS 0.63 2.95 0.21 0.18 -0.82 4 5 2 1 4
  Kyle Gibson (R) MIN @MIL 0.62 1.41 0.18 0.02 0.86 4 0 3 4 2
  Dustin May (R) LA @MIA 0.58 0.07 0.37 0.55 1.31 2 3
  J.A. Happ (L) NYY vBAL 0.58 0.95 -0.04 0.68 0.74 2 0 0 0 1

Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) left his last start—a PQS-4 vs. TAM—due to a leg injury, so his status is a bit uncertain. But he dominated the Tigers three starts back (PQS-5 on July 27), and owns a 3.76 xERA over his last five starts.

Tyler Beede (RHP, SF) has been banged up around the margins, and that’s masked some solid skill-based potential. Beede’s stuff is a good match for a right-leaning Oakland lineup, one that has scuffled on a current road trip.

Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) draws a slumping Milwaukee club which owns a strikeout-laden .727 OPS in August (21st MLB). Whiffs are especially up against right-handers. This particular right-hander has notched a 3.88 xERA on the season and a 4.20 xERA over his last five starts. Gibson issued six free passes in his last start, but he doesn’t have a history of clumping together bad walk games. He’s held foes to 2 ER or less in 6-of-11 road starts this season, including each of his last three.

Dustin May (RHP, LA) has exhibited electric stuff through two starts. He’s most certainly worth a long look for this start against right-leaning Miami.

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Dallas Keuchel (L) ATL vNYM 0.38 0.72 0.76 0.50 -0.45 1 3 1 3 1
  Brad Keller (R) KC vSTL 0.28 0.78 0.24 0.17 -0.09 3 4 3 4 1
  Cal Quantrill (R) SD vTAM 0.03 -0.06 -0.19 0.36 0.01 1 3 2 1 5
  Homer Bailey (R) OAK @SF -0.09 -0.08 0.27 0.09 -0.63 3 0 4 3 0
  Dillon Peters (L) LAA vPIT -0.13 -0.27 -0.10 0.35 -0.48 2 0 3
  Cole Hamels (L) CHC @PHI -0.14 0.82 0.06 0.04 -1.46 5 2 1 4 0
  Sean Reid-Foley (R) TOR vTEX -0.33 0.67 -0.79 -1.00 -0.18 0 2 2 1 1
  Kolby Allard (L) TEX @TOR -0.35 -0.40 -0.89 -0.58 0.47 3
  Dylan Bundy (R) BAL @NYY -0.35 1.12 -1.52 -0.22 -0.79 0 3 0 3 4

Dallas Keuchel (LHP, ATL) is tagged with a positive matchup rating for his home start against the Mets. Keuchel tossed a clunker in his last, albeit with all kinds of hit-rate problems. His indicators of late have been solid, and he’s been outstanding in his home yard (2.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP). The Mets offense has cranked out an .878 OPS in August, and lefties swing them around to the better half of their platoon splits. But Keuchel’s ability to get ground balls cuts into a problem area for NYM. The Mets are also left-heavy in their batting order, and that’s a plus for Keuchel, who has had issue vs. RHBs.

Brad Keller (RHP, KC) is rated above water for his Wednesday start in the I-70 set against the Cardinals. Keller is coming off a shaky start, but has otherwise been outstanding since the break. The second half has spelled upticks in ground balls, control, and velocity. The 23-year-old looks to be catching the Cardinals at an opportune time (.640 OPS, 0.23 Eye in August).

Cal Quantrill (RHP, SD) has allowed just 1 ER over his last 18.1 IP at Petco, and that’s where he’ll face the Rays on Wednesday. But beware this one—Tampa Bay sports a solid attack on the road, especially so of late. Quantrill tied a season-high with 102 pitches in his last.

Homer Bailey (RHP, OAK) is coming off an awful outing at CHC. Bailey’s road ERA now sits at 5.60. Avoid this road turn against a Giants club batting .270/.328/.455 (.783) since July 28.

Dillon Peters (LHP, LAA) stays in the Angels rotation after a nifty effort at Fenway in his last. He’s worth a look against a Pittsburgh nine which ranks 30th in OPS vs. LHPs since July 1 (.670). The Pirates have been a slumping group of late—they own a similar overall OPS in August. For PIT, Wednesday’s game is a getaway affair at the end of a six-game road swing.

Cole Hamels (LHP, CHC) is worth a look in what marks his third start off the IL (oblique). The Phillies have not looked good over recent weeks (.704 OPS in August).

Sean Reid-Foley (RHP, TOR) draws a home start against a struggling Texas nine. The Rangers own a whiff-heavy .687 OPS this month. They’re a solidly bottom-ten group away from home, and this one is a getaway day game wrapping up a nine-game road trip. Reid-Foley has battled some control problems, but is coming off a decent start against the patient Yankees. Look elsewhere first, but consider the 23-year-old right-hander an end-gamer if needed.

Kolby Allard (LHP, TEX) remains in the Ranger rotation for this start at Toronto. The Blue Jays scored 19 runs in game one of this series, and they’ve averaged 6.7 RPG on a .906 OPS since July 27. Look past Toronto’s shaky home OPS (.715)—that number is tethered down by a crazy-low 25% hit rate.

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) has been solid of late (4.03 ERA/4.25 xERA), but avoid this one at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees (and whatever Scranton RailRiders they have in Wednesday’s lineup) are in a phase that makes them a no-go for all but the best on the mound.

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Dakota Hudson (R) STL @KC -0.51 -0.75 0.03 -0.91 -0.41 0 3 1 2 1
  Jalen Beeks (L) TAM @SD -0.54 -0.15 -0.56 -0.79 -0.64 0 1
  Gio Gonzalez (L) MIL vMIN -1.09 -0.04 -1.61 -1.27 -1.45 2 1 4 2 1
  Edwin Jackson (R) DET vSEA -1.34 -0.56 -1.48 -1.72 -1.61 1 0 0 0 2
  Elieser Hernandez (R) MIA vLA -1.37 -0.35 -1.99 -1.33 -1.81 3 2 2 0 4
  Ross Detwiler (L) CHW vHOU -1.46 -1.44 -1.36 -1.02 -2.00 1 0 0 3 1
  Kyle Freeland (L) COL vARI -1.61 -0.99 -1.64 -1.73 -2.08 1 3 0 2 1
  Brian Johnson (L) BOS @CLE -1.89 -0.97 -2.08 -1.59 -2.91 1 3 0 1

Gio Gonzalez (LHP, MIL) has, through 10 starts, been fortunate to log a low HR/f and a generous hit rate. He owns a 4.69 xERA over his last four starts, and is facing a Minnesota nine which crushes southpaws (.871 OPS).

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating

                   SP       by SP league percentile

League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75|
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22    +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30    +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30    +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34    +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55    +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So, if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.