DAILY MATCHUPS: Bieber, Canning among Tuesday's top starters

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: All 30 teams have a game on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 3:40pm when the Padres host the Orioles in the first of five interleague games. The other four interleague games on the schedule include the Diamondbacks-Yankees, Twins-Marlins, Mets-White Sox, and Brewers-Athletics. The weather looks clear for today's games. 

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Noah Syndergaard (R) NYM @CHW 2.16 2.60 2.11 2.26 1.67 1 0 5 5 3
  Charlie Morton (R) TAM @BOS 1.90 2.75 1.90 2.09 0.84 4 3 3 1 5
  Justin Verlander (R) HOU @CLE 1.67 2.93 1.34 2.54 -0.13 1 3 4 2 4
  Shane Bieber (R) CLE vHOU 1.40 2.62 1.20 2.16 -0.37 5 4 5 2 5
  Yu Darvish (R) CHC @STL 1.37 2.09 1.11 1.45 0.81 2 3 4 4 2
  Mike Leake (R) SEA @TEX 1.18 0.81 0.86 1.81 1.24 2 5 0 5 3
  Griffin Canning (R) LAA vDET 1.14 1.17 0.28 0.34 2.75 1 3 1 1 4
  David Price (L) BOS vTAM 0.86 2.04 1.12 1.27 -0.98 3 4 2 1 3
  Tyler Beede (R) SF @PHI 0.71 1.61 0.15 0.75 0.31 1 3 3 5 2
  Joe Musgrove (R) PIT @CIN 0.68 0.66 0.22 1.27 0.56 3 3 1 4 0
  Dinelson Lamet (R) SD vBAL 0.53 1.42 -0.09 0.26 0.52 3 2 1 3

Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE) is in fantastic form, as he has thrown a PQS-DOM in six of his last eight starts. He threw a PQS-2 in his start in Houston back on April 27. Despite that mediocre effort, in 10 road starts, he has been incredible, with a 2.79 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. The notoriety may not be there, however his skills are at an elite level (3.17 xERA, 11.2 Dom, 5.7 Cmd, 171 BPV). Right-handed batters have been limited to a .209 BA and .604 OPS when facing him. 

Mike Leake (RHP, SEA) has been great over his last four starts, where he is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.55 xERA, and 22/2 K/BB in 24 IP. Two of those four starts have resulted in a PQS-DOM. His recent run of good pitching actually goes back further, as he owns a 134 BPV over his last nine starts. Two of his three starts against the Rangers this season have resulted in a PQS-DIS. In 11 road starts, he has really struggled, going 2-6 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 

Griffin Canning (RHP, LAA) came out of the bullpen in his last appearance due to a marathon extra-inning game. He has certainly hit a rough patch in his rookie campaign, as three of his last five starts have resulted in a PQS-DIS. In 12 IP during July, he owns a terrible 16/11 K/BB, 5.99 xERA, and 14 BPV. The positive news about today's start is that it comes against the punchless Tigers lineup (.661 OPS vs RHP). He threw a PQS-4 against them back on May 7. 

Tyler Beede (RHP, SF) is pitching his best ball of the season over his last five starts, where he has a 2.75 ERA and 26/5 K/BB in 32 IP. The road has not been kind to him, as three of his seven starts have resulted in a PQS-DIS. In those seven road starts, he is 3-2 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 39 IP. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Jake Odorizzi (R) MIN @MIA 0.30 1.05 -0.10 0.08 0.18 3 1 4 0 3
  Chris Bassitt (R) OAK vMIL 0.29 0.44 -0.04 0.56 0.18 3 0 1 0 2
  J.A. Happ (L) NYY vARI 0.25 1.07 -0.41 -0.09 0.43 0 3 4 2 0
  Kyle Freeland (L) COL vLA 0.01 0.12 -0.13 0.23 -0.18 0 0 2 1 3
  Reynaldo Lopez (R) CHW vNYM -0.02 1.53 -0.19 0.73 -2.17 1 1 4 5 4
  Julio Urias (L) LA @COL -0.18 -0.12 -0.22 -0.07 -0.32 4 1 1 4 4
  Sean Reid-Foley (R) TOR @KC -0.18 -0.17 -0.41 -0.84 0.71 0 2
  Julio Teheran (R) ATL @WAS -0.19 0.37 -0.66 -0.53 0.05 0 4 3 4 4
  Drew Smyly (L) PHI vSF -0.23 1.24 -0.84 -0.36 -0.96 2 1 0 0 4
  Adam Wainwright (R) STL vCHC -0.25 0.74 -0.23 -0.21 -1.31 3 2 5 1 2
  Zac Gallen (R) MIA vMIN -0.33 0.50 -0.71 -0.44 -0.68 4 0 2 3 5

Jake Odorizzi (RHP, MIN) has hit a rough patch in the season, as four of his last six starts have resulted in a PQS-DIS. He has allowed eight HR over his last five starts, over which time he is 1-2 with a 8.36 ERA. Left-handed batters have a strong .806 OPS versus him, while he is holding right-handed batters to a .591 OPS. The opposing Marlins are a juicy matchup, as their .650 OPS versus right-handed pitching is the worst in MLB.

J.A. Happ (LHP, NYY) faces a tough challenge, as the opposing Diamondbacks have a .846 OPS against left-handed pitching, which is third-best in MLB. Right-handed batters own a .801 OPS against him and have hit 17 HR. He has not been his best at home, where in 11 starts, he is 5-5 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, CHW) is currently firing on all cylinders, as each of his last three starts have resulted in a PQS-DOM. Over his last four, he is just 1-2, but with a 3.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.60 xERA, and 28/4 K/BB in 26 IP. Left-handed batters have a strong .902 OPS against him this season. 

Drew Smyly (LHP, PHI) incredibly tossed a PQS-4 in his Phillies debut, after making nine starts with the Rangers in which six resulted in a PQS-DIS. In 57 IP this season, he has allowed an astonishing 19 HR. The opposing Giants have only hit 109 HR this season, which is fifth-fewest in MLB. They also have been poor versus left-handed pitching, with a .228 BA and .658 OPS. 

Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) has made three starts versus the Cubs already this season, with two resulting in a PQS-DIS and the other resulting in a PQS-DOM. The PQS-DOM was the only one of those three starts to come at home. In his nine home starts this season, he has been great, going 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Over his last eight starts, he owns a decent 3.91 xERA and 103 BPV.

Zac Gallen (RHP, MIA) has thrown a PQS -DOM in two of his first six MLB starts. Luck has definitely been on his side, as he has taken advantage of a 79% S% (2.76 ERA, 4.39 xERA). The surface stats may not hold, but the strikeouts should keep coming (10.7 Dom, 13% SwK). The opposing Twins have a .830 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is fourth-best in MLB. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Tanner Roark (R) CIN vPIT -0.52 0.38 -0.93 -0.47 -1.06 3 4 1 2 3
  Adrian Houser (R) MIL @OAK -0.58 -0.46 -0.64 -0.55 -0.68 4 0 2 3 5
  Taylor Clarke (R) ARI @NYY -0.77 -0.35 -1.44 -0.64 -0.63 0 1 0 0 3
  Tom Eshelman (R) BAL @SD -0.96 -0.89 -1.22 -0.69 -1.02 1 3 0
  Ariel Jurado (R) TEX vSEA -1.00 -0.31 -1.21 -0.75 -1.74 4 2 1 1 5
  Erick Fedde (R) WAS vATL -1.01 -0.85 -1.12 -1.51 -0.55 3 0 1 1 2
  Michael Montgomery (L) KC vTOR -1.26 -1.39 -1.30 -1.52 -0.84 0 0
  Drew VerHagen (R) DET @LAA -3.95 -2.95 -5.58 -4.01 -3.25 0

Tanner Roark (RHP, CIN) will be taking on the Pirates for a second time this season. The first time around resulted in an ugly PQS-0. Over his last five starts, the long ball has been a problem, as he has allowed eight HR. Receiving extra rest has not helped him, as in six starts when getting six or more days of rest, he is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Left-handed batters have enjoyed facing him this season, as they have a strong .941 OPS. 

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.