THE BIG HURT: Hurt File, June 6-11

NOTE: The focus of this column is analysis, so we don't cover the progress of every injured player. We try to highlight the key fantasy contributors, unusual injuries, or situations where the official projected return is variable or not given. Players whose progress is proceeding as expected are very well covered by fantasy news sources; we'll tend to leave those players alone unless we have something we want to add to the news coverage. This column is updated on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Mondays.

Last week's column (May 30-June 4)


June 11, 2018

Shohei Ohtani (RHP, LAA) – R elbow, UCL tear (6/6/18) UPDATE
FYI—based on history of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injections to treat UCL injuries, we'd estimate that Ohtani's odds of needing Tommy John surgery are better than 50 percent. Maybe as high as 70 percent (that last number is admittedly spitballing somewhat).
2018 Impact: High risk; Likely extended absence; Potential for season-ending surgery
Est. Return: Late July-late August if he avoids surgery

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) – R thumb contusion (6/4/18)
He is hoping to be back by June 15, and that’s a reasonable return date given his injury. Of greater concern was an off-hand remark he made that his arm has been sore most of the season and that he’s hoping the time off will help with that. Soreness of any kind is a red flag, and while it may just be garden-variety fatigue, it elevates his risk at the least.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk
Est. Return: Mid-June (soon)

Justin Turner (3B, LA) – L wrist soreness (6/7/18)
His wrist has been sore for a few days now, and his power has been off since his return from the DL. Both are normal after-effects of his broken wrist. He should avoid the DL and improve as the season goes on, but he may not be 100 percent until 2019.
2018 Impact: Potential for reduced power for a while
Est. Return: NA—he should avoid the DL

Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS) – R knee surgery (10/20/17) UPDATE
A week ago, he was hobbling around the field, barely able to man his position and now he’s “feeling fine” and could be activated soon. It’s possible that he was just getting the knee used to the strain of going full speed again, but if you’re a Murphy owner, you should be concerned. As noted last week, microfracture surgery is more theoretically than clinically proven to be effective. We’ve updated his return date to coincide with the latest news, but caveat emptor.
2018 Impact: Very high risk
Est. Return: Mid/late June

Stephen Strasburg (RHP, WAS) – R shoulder inflammation (6/8/18)
An MRI showed no structural damage, which means no tearing or breaks. However, there are conditions that won’t show in an MRI, such as tendonitis. It’s better than finding a torn tendon or ligament, but it doesn’t mean he’s in the clear. We’ll project a short stay for now, but there’s a lot still that could be wrong. With no definitive diagnosis, we can’t project with any accuracy.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk; No definitive diagnosis
Est. Return: Late June (best estimate)

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY) – Both hamstrings, strain (6/8/18)
The team is reporting that these are “low-grade” strains, which of course indicates a fairly quick return. Of course, the fact that it’s both hamstrings increases the risk, as either one could delay his return. As with any strain, there is a high risk of recurrence if he returns before they’re fully healed.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk
Est. Return: Post All-Star break


June 9, 2018

Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM) – R shoulder soreness (6/7/18)
It’s impossible to say, with out more information, what’s wrong with him. This could explain his recent struggles, though there’s no reason to suspect the injury occurred recently. He will be examined, of course, and we’ll know more then. Figure a minimum of two to three weeks, possibly more if there’s something seriously wrong.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk, any time there’s a sore shoulder
Est. Return: Post All-Star break is likely, though it’s too soon to be definitive

Shohei Ohtani (RHP, LAA) – R elbow, UCL tear (6/6/18)
This is a Grade 2 tear, and that’s some bad news for Ohtani and owners. It’s quite possible that his 2017 injury wasn’t fully healed, but what matters now is his future. He’s had a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection, though the effectiveness of PRP has yet to be established. Even if rest, therapy, and the PRP are effective in healing, we’re looking at six to eight weeks at a bare minimum, and his season is in jeopardy even without surgery. Then there’s the possibility that he waits a month or two and then elects surgery, which is not uncommon.
2018 Impact: High risk; Likely extended absence; Potential for season-ending surgery
Est. Return: Late July-late August if he avoids surgery

Carlos Correa (SS, HOU) – R side discomfort (6/6/18)
He felt discomfort on Wednesday, but an MRI revealed no damage. That doesn’t mean he’s not hurt, of course, but it’s likely not serious. He may need another couple of days to recover.
2018 Impact: Likely minimal
Est. Return: June 10-12

Steven Souza (OF, ARI) – R pectoral strain, the sequel (5/19/18) UPDATE
A recent MRI revealed that he still has swelling, so the injury is progressing slowly at best. The pectoralis is very large muscle, so it takes more force to tear. The upshot is that tears tend to be a bit worse. Give how slowly he healed the first time, we can expect a long process here. He’s not close to being ready, so we’re updating our projection.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk; Variable recovery time
Est. Return: Post All-Star break

Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA) – R ankle sprain (6/5/18)
Here’s a great example of why you can’t trust players’ judgment. He’s expecting to return in the minimum 10 days, but he suffered a Grade 2 sprain, so a 10-day recovery is highly unlikely. Expect him to miss two weeks at a bare minimum, perhaps a week or two longer.
2018 Impact: Likely minimal
Est. Return: Late June


June 6, 2018

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) – Groin tightness (6/2/18)
He’s not on the DL yet—he saw a muscle specialist on Tuesday, so that should shed some light on his situation. Given that this apparently hasn’t improved, a DL trip is likely. Hopefully, it will be a short one, but groin injuries can be tricky.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk; Extent of injury unknown
Est. Return: Likely Mid-June (best estimate)

Ervin Santana (RHP, MIN) – Recovery from finger surgery (2/6/18) UPDATE
He was first covered in a previous column. He had a setback in his rehab, but is back to throwing. Given that he missed  the entire spring, he’s still a few weeks away from a rehab stint. He could be back by the end of June, but most likely, the team will bring him back after the break.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk
Est. Return: Likely post All-Star break

A.J. Pollock (OF, ARI) – L thumb, avulsion fracture (5/14/18) UPDATE
First covered here. He’s still in a cast, so the optimists were wrong here. We landed somewhere in the middle, but he’ll likely go past our original late June projection. He should be back after the All-Star break.
2018 Impact: Elevated risk; Possibly some reduced production at first
Est. Return: Early July

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