Marketwatch
With the proliferation of fantasy news sites, we have become inundated in news bites. Baseball HQ's news columnists separate the news from the noise and provide the most fantasy-baseball-relevant analysis on the internet. This is your exclusive in-depth insight into the ripple effects of all promotions, demotions, trades, signings, injury prognoses, rehab progress, role changes, usage changes, lineup juggling, managerial decisions, and more. If anything happens that affects playing time or performance, you will find the impact analyzed here, both situationally and statistically.
Recent Samples
3/7/2007 - Iguchi's value drops with fall in batting order... Ozzie Guillen announced that if Scott Podsednik (OF, CWS) is healthy, Tadahito Iguchi (2B, CWS) will bat seventh. Over a full season, that amounts to approximately eighty less plate appearances. This will negatively effect Iguchi's counting stats. Other factors may temper this a bit.
YEAR AB R HR RBI SB BA OPS BB% CT% PX SX XBA ==== === == == === == === === === === === === === 2005 511 74 15 71 15 278 777 8% 78% 105 118 277 2006 555 97 18 67 11 281 772 10% 80% 88 80 249 2007P 526 87 14 71 9 273 749 9% 80% 87 91 254
While it appears Taguchi progressed in 2006, the increase in Homers and Runs resulted from 44 more at-bats, not gains in skills. In fact, both his PX and SX dropped dramatically. While he controlled the strike zone better with an increase in bb% and ct%, he didn't capitalize on those improvements. They just helped him maintain the appearance of consistency. Moving down in the order with reduced plate appearances will unveil the declining power skills and reduce his chances to score runs. His xBA warns of a pending batting average decline, as well. Adjust your valuation accordingly.
3/18/2007 - Buying opp as Vazquez struggles in ST... White Sox RHP Javier Vazquez has been awful in Spring Training, going 0-2, 10.80/2.00—and that’s after a three-run, five-hit performance in 4 2/3 innings in his last start, which manager Ozzie Guillen called his "best performance" all spring.
Vazquez is already disdained by large swaths of fantasy owners (Mock Draft Central puts him in towards the end of the 12th round in 15-team mixed leagues). Most of us know that ST stats are not worth the paper (or pixels) they’re printed on. And Vazquez’ brutal spring might push him into genuine bargain territory. First of all, it’s worth mentioning that Vazquez has been ridiculously unlucky this spring, with a 45% Hit Rate and a 42% S%. And his base skills have been pretty fine, with a 2.7 Ctl (bb/9), 8.1 Dom (K/9) and nifty 3.0 Cmd (K/bb). Yeah, the sample is small, but it’s this small sample that will drive Vazquez bids downwards. Which presents the opportunity. Look at Vazquez’ BPIs the last few years:
Year Ctl Dom Cmd HR9 S% xERA ==== === === === === === ==== 2003 2.2 9.4 4.2 1.1 76% 3.24 2004 2.7 6.8 2.5 1.5 66% 4.46 2005 1.9 8.0 4.2 1.5 70% 3.14 2006 2.5 8.2 3.3 1.0 64% 3.13
Except for the HR/9 in two 2004-05, these are excellent skills! And those HR/9 spikes are the result of jumps in HR/FB, which is partly another indicator of bad luck. Vazquez figures to get lucky one of these years, and when he does, his skills suggest the 3.20-ish starter we saw in 2003 when he was with the Expos. It’s also possible that Vazquez is one of those pitchers who melts down a little under stress, which could explain the S% swings. For that reason, don’t push him into the first four rounds or to a $20 bid. But many of HQ’s strategies call for finding high-skill pitchers in the later rounds or for cheap—and Vazquez looks like a prime candidate.
3/20/2007 -
Spring Training Stats 2007 Projections Player Tm Pos AB 2B 3B HR LWPwr LWPwr diff PX ============ === === == == == == ===== ===== ==== === K Greene SD SS 25 1 0 3 73 37 +36 94
The Forecaster notes that Khalil Greene (SS, SD) has 20 HR upside. Greene's 73 LWPwr this Spring certainly makes that upside seem possible, even though we project a more modest 37 LWPwr during the season. Note that Greene's PX last year was 126-126-90-147 from April through July, so he has shown the ability to hit with power for a sustained period of time. Greene is a player you can get later in the draft who will help with respectable power output.
4/15/2007 - Bedard's skills continue to grow...Erik Bedard (LHP, BAL) fired his second straight PQS-5 start Friday night, throwing six innings against the Royals while allowing one run on five hits and four walks, and striking out nine. Bedard had the best season of his young career in 2006, put on a show of dominance in spring training, and now appears to be carrying it over into the regular season:
Year ERA Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 hr/f G/L/F H% S% xERA ==== ==== === === === ==== ==== ======== == == ==== 2004 4.60 4.7 7.9 1.7 7% 0.9 38/19/42 34 72 4.36 2005 4.02 3.6 8.0 2.2 7% 0.6 40/23/37 32 72 3.77 2006 3.76 3.2 7.8 2.5 9% 0.7 49/21/30 32 73 3.35 2007 5.09 3.1 8.7 2.8 23% 1.5 54/21/25 34 70 2.87
This is exactly what you want to see from a 28 year-old pitcher heading into his peak seasons. The control and command trends, the steadily increasing number of ground balls, and consistent year-to-year improvement in xERA. It's only been three starts, but thus far, in terms of skills, Bedard is pitching better than ever. But thanks to some bad luck with hit rate and an excessive number of home runs, his ERA doesn't reflect that. If the Bedard owner in your league is feeling any dissatisfaction with his current 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, see if you can help relieve him of the burden. But do it quickly - those bloated surface stats won't likely last much longer.
4/15/2007 - Improved Control key to Dontrelle's 3-0 start... After a 22-10 record, 1.14 WHIP and a 2.63 ERA in 2005, Dontrelle Willis (LHP, FLA) disappointed many owners who paid top dollar in 2006. A 12-12 record, 1.42 WHIP, and 3.87 ERA yielded little, if any, profit.
YEAR IP W ERA WHIP H% S% CTL DOM CMD XERA BPV ==== ===== == ==== ==== === === === === === ==== === 2003 160.2 14 3.31 1.29 30% 76% 3.3 8.0 2.4 3.45 77 2004 197.0 10 4.02 1.38 31% 73% 2.8 6.4 2.3 3.78 59 2005 236.1 22 2.63 1.14 29% 77% 2.1 6.5 3.1 3.35 91 2006 223.3 12 3.87 1.42 31% 75% 3.3 6.4 1.9 3.57 54 2007P 202.0 12 4.13 1.37 30% 73% 3.2 6.3 2.0 4.13 54 2007A 19.0 3 3.32 1.37 35% 79% 1.9 8.1 4.3 2.84 109
The main culprit was a rise in his Control rate from 2.1 to 3.3. This lowered his Command from a solid 3.1 to a mediocre 1.9. This spring, Dontrelle ended the Grapefruit League with a 1.8 Control and 3.25 Command. He's carried that into the regular season, posting a 1.9 Control rate teamed with an 8.1 Dominance, yielding an excellent 4.3 Command. His xERA of 2.84 reflects his high 35% hit rate. He's earning each win with solid skills and a 79% strand rate.
These numbers exceed our projections and his historical norms. Keep an eye on his Control rate. If he keeps this below 3.0, his effectiveness will continue. But Dontrelle has shown flashes of brilliance before that he often cannot maintain. After an oustanding April in 2006, he posted a 6.45 ERA in May with a 1.70 WHIP. He followed a solid June with a 5.52 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in July. With 259 IP the past two years, Willis represents a workload risk, as well. The risks in holding Dontrelle outweigh the possible benefits. Capitalize on his hot start to acquire a more reliable asset for your squad.
4/21/2007 - Pedroia worthy of patience despite early slump... The start of the 2007 season has not been kind to Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS), as he entered Friday night's play batting .167, with just one hit in his last 26 AB. It's a familiar story, as Pedroia hit just .191 in his short stint with the Red Sox in 2006. And just like last year, there's several reasons to be optimistic that the slump won't last:
Year BA bb% ct% h% Eye G/L/F PX xBA ======= ==== === === == ==== ======== == ==== 2005# .276 9 92 28 1.35 N/A 85 N/A 2006-AAA# .303 10 94 31 1.88 48/18/34 92 N/A 2006-MLB .191 7 92 19 1.00 48/23/30 64 .286 2007 .167 16 89 19 1.75 45/19/35 0 .194 #MLEs
If Pedroia's feeling a little deja vu, he's got good reason - once again, a 19% hit rate is undermining his positive skills. The main reason his xBA is lower this year is the 0 PX, which is due to his lack of any extra-base hits so far. He's no power threat, and that limits his overall upside as a hitter; still, his PX should come around enough to give him an xBA more in line with last season. The fact that he's batting .184 in 125 major-league AB despite a 91% contact rate and a 1.27 Eye is simply stunning - generally speaking, a hitter with a batting eye over 1.00 has just a 9% chance of hitting below .250. Right now, the Red Sox appear committed to keeping him in the lineup, and given time, his luck is going to turn. This may be the lowest his value will be all season.
