Dr. HQ, Injury Analyst
Rick Wilton is Dr. HQ, the industry's first and only analyst with experience in sports medicine, radiology, pharmacology and physical therapy. Every Friday from March through September, Dr. HQ reveals the "D.L. truths" behind the hype...
* Injury prognoses that differ from published media reports
* Realistic return dates
* How a player's injury might affect his future performance
* What to expect when the player is activated from the DL
* Anatomy lessons to provide more insight into individual injuries
* A fantasy-relevant slant available nowhere else
* ...plus much more!
Sample Report
September 24, 2007
There have been about 10% more injuries this season than in the past few seasons. The DL lists have had their share of top-flight hurlers too. In this, the next to last column of the year, we focus on our review of injuries to pitchers. Next week, we will look at the hitters. Here are my top ten in no particular order...
Rich Harden (RHP, OAK)
Harden was lights out this spring. In 13 2/3 innings, he walked just three while striking out 25! His ERA was 1.32 and WHIP 1.02. His amazing spring domination wiped out the memories of elbow woes and the fact he worked just 46 2/3 innings the prior season. He continued to dominate in three starts into the season before leaving with shoulder tightness. It turned out to be a strained shoulder and he landed on the DL. His shoulder woes followed him the rest of the season and he started just one more time. The lesson here is a great spring training should not overshadow a history of injuries and struggles the season before.
Chris Carpenter (RHP, STL)
The Cardinals inked Carpenter to a huge deal last December. He had proven to be the staff ace and durable, posting 93 starts from 2004-2006. This spring, he developed what appeared to be minor elbow soreness and inflammation. Then the diagnosis was changed to an impingement in his elbow. Carpenter ended his attempt to come back in mid-July and underwent elbow reconstruction surgery July 24. He missed the rest of the 2007 season and is not likely to be ready until the middle of the 2008 campaign.
Chris Ray (RHP, BAL)
Ray was the kind of closer who snuck in under the radar on draft day 2007. He was pitching for the lowly Orioles, and even though he saved 33 games in 2006 with a solid 2.66 ERA and 1.09 Ratio, he was not considered an elite closer. Ray developed stiffness in his pitching elbow late in July and the Orioles ended up placing him on the disabled list July 25. At the time, he was diagnosed with a sprain ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and surgery was not considered an option. A couple weeks later, while starting his throwing program, he developed more soreness in his pitching elbow and was shut down for the season. Another round of tests revealed a bone spur causing his problems. Once Dr. Andrews opened up his pitching elbow, he went from just needing the spur removed to Tommy John surgery when it was discovered his UCL was damaged more than what showed up in his MRI. Because he underwent surgery in August 2007, he will miss most of the 2008 season.
Akinori Otsuka (RHP, TEX)
Early in the season, Otsuka lost his closer's job to free-agent signee Eric Gagne. The Gagne signing was a surprising one since Otsuka had saved 32 games in 2006 and posted a 2.11 ERA. Clearly, the Rangers would trade either Otsuka or Gagne during the season and still have a closer. Gagne was the one that was dealt. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Otsuka developed forearm problems in early July and never did pitching again for them. As we approach the end of the 2007 season, his forearm problems still have not been resolved. He has seen three different physicians and all three concur he does not need surgery.
BJ Ryan (LHP, TOR)
Ryan entered the 2007 season as one of the more dominating closers, after posting a 1.37 ERA and 0.85 WHIP and saving 38 games for the Blue Jays. According to the Jays, Ryan developed a sore back in spring training and missed most of the spring. Early in April, Ryan continue to struggle, then was placed on the DL the middle of the month with a sprained pitching elbow. Supposedly, the MRI done on the elbow did not reveal any significant damage, but he was shut down for four weeks. While Ryan was in shutdown mode, GM J.P. Ricciardi admitted Ryan's back woes this spring were a falsification. He had elbow problems, which Toronto did not reveal to their fans and the media. As it turned out, the rest did not clear up Ryan's elbow soreness and he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-May. If all goes as planned, he should be back pitching for the Blue Jays before the All-Star break next season.
Joel Zumaya (RHP, DET)
Zumaya struggled in April, but there did not appear to be a physical reason for his subpar numbers. Early May, he suffered a torn tendon involving the middle finger on his pitching hand. He ended up missing over three months of the season and has struggled since his return in August. He clearly is not the pitcher he was in 2006, but the Tigers expect him to be back to his dominating form next spring.
Anibal Sanchez (RHP, FLA)
Officially, Sanchez did not spend any time on the Marlins disabled list, because he was at Triple-A when he needed surgery to repair a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder in June. Sanchez was expected to enter the spring with high hopes based partly on a no-hitter he threw in September 2006. While throwing in January, he developed some discomfort in his shoulder, which as it turned out was the beginning of a season-long problems with the labrum in his pitching shoulder. Because pitchers coming off labrum surgery struggle to regain prior form, the Marlins are cautiously optimistic about his future but understand it will take time for him to regain his form.
Josh Johnson (RHP, FLA)
Johnson was coming off a solid rookie season, where he won 12 games with a 3.10 ERA. His 2006 season ended when the Marlins shut him down due to what was termed "minor forearm discomfort" very late in the season. In February, it was discovered that Johnson had struggled with triceps and forearm tightness in January as he prepared for the 2007 season. In early March, he was diagnosed with ulnar neuritis (inflammation of the sheath surrounding the ulnar nerve) in his pitching elbow. His rehab program got him back to the majors in June before he redeveloped stiffness in his forearm in July. This diagnosis was a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and he underwent Tommy John surgery in early August. He is likely to miss most if not all of the 2008 season.
Randy Johnson (LHP, ARI)
The Diamondbacks were convinced Johnson's troublesome back problems were manageable, and they could expect 175-200 innings out of him in 2007. So they brought him along slowly as he recovered from back surgery in October 2006 to repair damage to a herniated disc. Johnson was dominating in May before redeveloping more problems with the same disc. His last outing was late in June, and he missed the second half of the season. Johnson had the same type surgery in August that he had in October. His future is cloudy entering 2008 considering his back history and the fact that he is in his mid-40s.
Jason Schmidt (RHP, LA)
Schmidt was able to post 200-plus innings in three of the last four seasons, and the Dodgers were confident he would provide them more of the same in 2007. Schmidt struggled with his velocity almost from the beginning of spring training, and did not pitch effectively in Florida. He landed on the DL in the middle of April with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. He worked his way back to the Dodgers in early June but never regained the velocity on his fastball. Exploratory surgery in late June revealed damage to the bursa sac, a frayed biceps tendon and a torn labrum. This extensive surgery should keep him on the DL at the beginning of next season, and he may not be productive until after the All-Star break, if at all, in 2008.
Other notable injuries:
Mark Mulder (LHP, STL)
We expected Mulder to miss about half of the 2007 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery the prior year. He managed just three starts and was slated to have surgery to repair some minor damage to his rotator cuff this month. While the Cardinals indicate he should be ready for spring training next year, it is not a given that he will be up to speed by Opening Day.
John Patterson (RHP, WAS)
Patterson was being counted on as the staff ace for the Nationals this season. He ended up missing most of the season due to a strained biceps ailment plus elbow pain that required surgery to remove scar tissue in September.
Phil Hughes (RHP, NYY)
There was a time earlier in the season that the Yankees were desperate for starters and Hughes, if he was able to stay healthy, would have been a huge addition to the rotation. But a troublesome hamstring and ankle injury cost him three months of the 2007 season.
Freddy Garcia (RHP, PHI)
Garcia did not appear to be right from day one after being acquired from the White Sox. He ended up missing almost four months of the season due to a frayed rotator cuff and torn labrum.
Zach Duke (LHP, PIT)
Just a couple of seasons ago, Duke was the talk of Pittsburgh as a potential number one starter. A troublesome pitching elbow diagnosed as irritation of the ulnar collateral ligament cost him 75 days on the DL this year. His future is uncertain.
Kenny Rogers (LHP, DET)
A blood clot in his pitching shoulder cost Rogers nearly three months of the season. Factor in a DL stint for tendinitis in his pitching elbow, and you have a lost season for this veteran southpaw.
