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ROTISSERIE GAMING: Risk management at mid-season
Matthew Baic - July 3, 2009
You have made some risky decisions during 2009. We asked you to be safer in your decision making, both on draft day and throughout the year. But we know you just can't get away from your gambling tendencies. Whether you like it or not, it's time for a review.
Closers
In a risk management article from March, we touched on the aspect of the riskiest of areas, the closer. The closers role on many teams evolve seemingly week by week. 2009 holds as no exception, as many roles have changed in the first half of the season. Have the reliability grades helped in staying clear of possible problem closers? Conversely, how have closers with excellent reliability grades held up during the season so far?
From the article three months ago, we listed six closers or potential closers at that point of spring training.
Player Reliability ==================== =========== Joey Devine, OAK CDA B.J. Ryan, TOR FBF Mike Gonzalez, ATL FBC Carlos Marmol, CHC ACC Frank Francisco, TEX FBF Kerry Wood, CLE FCC
Reliability Grades measure three elements -- health, experience and year-to-year performance consistency -- over the past three year period.
The fate of these six have been mixed. Devine had Tommy John surgery on April 21 and is expected to miss all of this year and possibly a big chunk of 2010. A couple of the Tommy John victims on this list, B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez, have turned in opposite years. Wood still remains the closer, but hasn't been pitching well. Francisco is having an excellent season, but has just returned from a DL stint. Marmol, the most reliable of this list, has had a good season, but has not had many save opportunities.
Surely, you could have drafted these players with not much of an investment, but the return has not been very fruitful and in some cases, a total waste of a pick. So, how have the closers turned out with excellent reliability grades? Here is a list of closers with all reliability grades at least a B.
Player Reliability ==================== =========== Jose Valverde, HOU BAA Brad Lidge, PHI BAA Francisco Rodriguez, NYM AAA Trevor Hoffman, MIL AAB Matt Capps, PIT BBA Kevin Gregg, CHC ABA Brian Fuentes, ANA BBB Jonathan Papelbon, BOS AAA Bobby Jenks, CHW AAA Joe Nathan, MIN AAB Mariano Rivera, NYY AAB Joakim Soria, KC ABB
Valverde, Hoffman, and Soria have spent time on the DL this year while Lidge and Capps have not exactly been themselves. The rest of the list has turned in solid years without missing time due to injury.
So, what do we find when we compare these two groups? Obviously, the "unreliable" group has turned out mostly disappoinments. That's not to say that the "reliable" group hasn't been perfect, but when comparing the two groups, pitchers from the reliable group have held up. When dealing with closers on draft day, perhaps it is best to increase our priority on reliable closers and let the rest of the league take chances on the unreliable group.
Durability
It would be great if we could end the season with exactly the same team we drafted, but we know this is impossible. Sure, some of it is our own fickleness and it would be nice to save ourselves from ourselves at times. However, the injury aspects are totally out of our control. Let's take a look at the top 10 hitters sorted by at bats and the top 10 starters sorted by innings pitched with their reliability grades.
Hitter Reliability ==================== =========== Aaron Hill, TOR FBB Vernon Wells, TOR CAB Alex Rios, TOR AAA Marco Scutaro, TOR ABA Carl Crawford, TB BAB Orlando Hudson, LA CAA Robinson Cano, NYY AAB Jimmy Rollins, PHI AAB Ian Kinsler, TEX DBB Ryan Zimmerman, WAS BAA
Pitcher Reliability ==================== =========== Zack Greinke, KC ABA Kevin Millwood, TEX CAA Josh Johnson, FLA FCD Cliff Lee, CLE BAC Felix Hernandez, SEA BAA CC Sabathia, NYY AAA James Shields, TB AAA Edwin Jackson, DET ABA Dan Haren, ARI AAA Javier Vazquez, ATL AAA
Just a couple of players on the list have a 'F' in their reliability and just one 'D'. When truly factoring in reliability on draft day, you can get closer to the goal of having the same roster at the end of the season as you did on draft day. In any event, it can really help minimize your transactions throughout the season. That way, you can save your FAAB or transactions for significant pickups throughout the year.
Look at your league champions from past years or check out the current leaders in your league. Evaluate how much they have turned over their roster and you will see there probably hasn't been much turnover. It is just another example of what minimizing risk can do.
Summary
Risk management isn't very sexy or flashy. But when it comes down to determining between players, reliability could be the final attribute when making a decision. Sure, players with poor reliability can surprise, but hopefully the examples illustrated here will gravitate you towards using risk management more often.
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