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FANALYTICS: Snake? Auction? Floor Wax? Dessert Topping?
Ron Shandler - March 5, 2010
Snake? Auction? Floor Wax? Dessert Topping?
There have been slightly more than 3,295 articles written about snake drafting versus auction drafting. This will be one more, though it is a bit different. It is not going to tell you the pros and cons of each format; you know that already. It is not going to give you my opinion about which one is better; anyone who's been reading me for more than a year knows that already too.
What interests me in particular is that the discussion is always "one" versus "the other." Yes, there are also salary cap games, but when it comes to Rotisserie or even head-to-head, I have yet to read anything that ventures even slightly outside the box. There are snake drafts. There are auctions. Pick one.
But I don't want to pick, I want to find a better solution.
If we were to boil down the biggest advantage to each approach, we might conclude that...
- Auctions allow us the opportunity to own any player we want.
- Snake drafts take a shorter amount of time.
So, what if we could come up with a new method that allowed access to all players and didn't take 13 hours to do? Wouldn't that solve a whole bunch of issues?
Several years ago, I took a look at the dollar value distribution when players are snaked. I created a chart containing each player's projected dollar value, slotted into their appropriate cell in a round-by-round snake draft. Here were the average player values by round:
Rd $$ == === 1 $34 2 $26 3 $23 4 $20 5 $18 6 $17 7 $16 8 $14 9 $13 10 $12 11 $11 12 $10 13 $9 14 $8 15 $7 16 $6 17 $5 18 $4 19 $3 20 $2 21 $1 22 $1 23 $1
The charts yielded some general benchmarks:
- All $30 players will go in the first round.
- All $20-plus players will go in the first four rounds.
- Double-digit value ends pretty much after Round 11.
- The $1 end game starts at about Round 20.
However, from the perspective of looking at snake versus auction, there was one more tidbit that was far more intriguing:
Dollar value difference between
first player selected and
last player selected.
Round 12-team 15-team
===== ============== ===============
1 $15 $19
2 7 8
3 5 4
4 3 3
5 2 2
6 2 1
7-17 1 1
18+ 0 0
The huge difference in value in the first two rounds, from first to last seed, begged another question: "Is one draft slot better than another?"
Apparently so. In a 15-team league, the top seed, drafting at #1 and #30, would get a $47 and a $24 player ($71). The bottom seed, drafting #15 and #16, would get two $28s ($56). Since the talent level flattens out after the 2nd round, low seeds never get a chance to catch up. The total value each seed accumulates at the end of the draft is hardly equitable:
Seed 12-team 15-team ==== ======= ======= 1 $266 $273 2 $264 $269 3 $263 $261 4 $262 $262 5 $259 $260 6 $261 $260 7 $260 $260 8 $261 $260 9 $261 $258 10 $257 $260 11 $257 $257 12 $258 $257 13 $257 14 $255 15 $256
This phenomenon is not a new revelation. Nando DeFino wrote about it as it related fantasy football in his January 15, 2010 Wall Street Journal column:
"As for the draft - when a fantasy player can exert some control over his team's success - if you don't get the first three picks, you've probably already lost. In a random sampling of 567 leagues hosted on CBSSports.com, having the first pick in a fantasy football draft resulted in a first-place finish 64 times. The second pick resulted in 67 first-place finishes and the third turned out 69. After that, the numbers drop precipitously. Having the first three picks in a draft correlates with a first-place finish about 50% of the time. Everything else, according to Tony Fernandez, the company's vice president of technology, "is a virtual crapshoot." So if you have the chance to trade up in next year's draft to a spot in the top three, common sense would tell you to pull the trigger on that deal."
Of course, the draft is just the starting point for managing your roster and player values are variable. Even still, it's tough to imagine a scenario where the upper seeds wouldn't have a clear advantage over the lower seeds.
While this builds a case against snake drafting, there is another important point from the prior chart. By the 7th round, player values from top to bottom seed have completely flattened out. Essentially, by that point, it has pretty much become a pick-a-player snake draft anyway!
Yes, you still don't get access to all players, but any player selected has about the same value as any other in each round. If you have a certain preference, you still have a reasonable shot at getting the player you want.
When it comes down to it, the lack of access to all players is only critical in the early rounds. By the middle rounds of a snake draft, most all players have comparable value.
I have written before about hybrid formats that combines the best elements of snake and auction drafting. I think it's time again to make a case for using a "Snauction" format. (Okay, that's lame. Indulge me. I could have combined auction and serpentine -- auctiontine! Or worse - Snauctiontine! )
Here is how it would work:
1. Each draft begins as an auction. Each team has to fill it's first seven roster slots - any slots - from a budget of $154. (If you add up the average values by round in the earlier chart, the first seven rounds total $154. Make it $155 if you prefer rounder numbers.) Opening bid for any player is $15. This assures that player values will be close to reality.
2. After each team has filled seven slots, it becomes a snake draft.
3. If you like, you can assign arbitrary salaries to the snake-drafted players in such a way that each roster will still add up to about $260.
Rd Salary == ====== 8 $14 9 $13 10 $12 11 $11 12 $10 13 $9 14 $8 15 $7 16 $6 17 $5 18 $4 19 $3 20 $2 21 $1 22 $1 23 $1
Assigning dollars in these snaked rounds is just individual preference. I don't see much value in redraft leagues. Probably the only advantage would be for keeper leagues to more easily value players in subsequent seasons.
You'll note that the above chart is identical to the average values in the very first chart. In fact, by using that chart, you can decide how deep into the rosters you want to auction. If you want to auction the first 15 players, for instance, you'd use a budget of $238. If you only wanted to auction the first 5 players, your budget would be $121.
This hybrid snauction will take longer than a snake draft. If you typically take two hours to snake, this might take three, but it's still better than the 5-plus hour marathons some auctions take.
And for auction aficionados, it gives everyone access to the top 30% of the talent pool. Admittedly, it takes away a few strategic options -- "stars and scrubs" takes on a different dimension -- but there are always things you lose when you compromise.
Still, this hybrid is exactly that -- an interesting compromise -- that seems to marry the best aspects of both formats:
- It allows us the opportunity to own any player we want, at least among the part of the player pool where it really matters.
- It won't take 13 hours to do.
It's not often that you can have your cake and eat it too.
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