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BATTING BUYERS GUIDE: One Skill Away
Joshua Randall - August 27, 2010
A version of the article previously appeared in USA Today's Sports Weekly.
Because home runs and stolen bases are two of the batting categories in fantasy baseball, players who contribute in those categories are always in demand. One way to look for hidden HR sources is to find those who already have power, but who struggle to make contact. An 80% contact rate (ct%) is the league average, while anything below 75% is troublesome. A player with a low contact rate is cheating himself out of the chance for more HR – after all, you have to put the bat on the ball if you want to hit one out.
To find hidden SB sources, look for players who are fast, but who don't get on base often enough to make it count. A player's on base percentage (OBP) includes his hits, walks, and times hit by pitch. The league average OBP is around .333, but the most well rounded speedsters have an OBP of at least .350.
Players with good power but a low ct%, or good speed but a low OBP, are just one skill away from making a significant impact in the HR or SB category.
Pedro Alvarez (3B, PIT) has been playing third base for the Pirates since mid June. Alvarez has 10 HR in 206 AB, but that power is accompanied by a very poor 63% ct%. There is reason for hope, however, because Alvarez had a somewhat better 72% ct% in the minors prior to his call-up. Alvarez will need to cut down on the strikeouts to fulfill his potential as a middle of the order producer.
Erick Aybar (SS, LAA) has 18 SB in 449 AB, but he could have many more SB if not for a below-average .322 OBP. To see Aybar struggling to get on base this season is surprising, because he improved his OBP every year from 2006 to 2009, culminating in a .350 OBP last season.
Aybar has swung and missed a little more often in 2010 than he did in 2009, nudging his ct% down to 85% (from 89%). He also hasn't been quite as fortunate with his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which has fallen from .342 in 2009 to .305 in 2010. We think that Aybar can return his OBP to a respectable level through a combination of fewer strikeouts and a little luck with his BABIP, perhaps over the season’s final weeks but more likely in 2011.
Julio Borbon (OF, TEX) has 10 SB in 316 AB, which is about half as many SB as he had last season, in twice as many at bats. The difference is that in 2009, Borbon had a fine .372 OBP; in 2010, he has a low .297 OBP. There are two reasons for the OBP shortfall: Borbon has drawn walks only half as often in 2010 as he did in 2009, and his BABIP has fallen from .360 to .298.
With right fielder Nelson Cruz on the disabled list, and the Rangers' big division lead giving them the possibility of resting left fielder Josh Hamilton and designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, Borbon will see plenty of playing time down the stretch. In June, when he had 87 AB – the most of any month this season – Borbon had a .404 OBP. That level is above his head, but it shows that additional playing time may help Borbon's quest to get on base more often.
Shelley Duncan (OF, CLE) has socked 7 HR in 159 AB. That's a letdown when you consider that Duncan hit 30 HR in 451 AB at Triple-A last season, where he also had a decent 79% ct%. This year in the Majors, Duncan has a terrible 64% ct%, though it has been a considerably better 74% in August so far. Duncan is a 30 year old journeyman who is probably flying below the radar of most fantasy players. His power is no joke, and Duncan only has to recapture an adequate contact rate to become a worthwhile waiver pickup.
Alcides Escobar (SS, MIL) was expected to have an immediate SB impact as a rookie this year, but his transition to the majors has been a bumpy one. In 2009, Escobar had a total of 46 SB in 555 AB combined between the minors and in a brief stint in the Majors. Unfortunately for Escobar's SB totals in 2010, he has spent most of this season (348 AB out of a total of 399 AB) batting in the 7th, 8th, or 9th spots, where he has a paltry 8 SB with a low .308 OBP.
Escobar's poor OBP this season is a surprise, because he had fine .360 OBP in 2008-2009 at Double- and Triple-A. The gap can be explained by looking at Escobar's BABIP. He established a .346 BABIP in close to 2,400 AB in his minor league career, but Escobar's BABIP this season is only .281. Normalization will close that gap and will improve Escobar's OBP, which will in turn allow him to make good on his speed. Escobar retains the potential to be a 30 to 40 SB a year player, and may flash that potential in the season’s final month.
Jed Lowrie (IF, BOS) is seeing a short-term playing time spike thanks to Dustin Pedroia’s injury. He has hit 3 HR in just 60 AB, and has displayed some pop in previous stints in Boston, as well as the upper minors. Lowrie's has shown improvement in his ct%, which is currently sitting at 88% for his short stint in Boston this year. His missing skill is the ability to stay healthy. He spent the first three-and-a-half months of the season on the disabled list with mononucleosis and has only played semi regularly since his return. If the Red Sox fall out of contention in the AL East, they will be in no hurry to rush Pedroia back from the DL, which would give Lowrie additional playing time.
Chris Snyder (C, PIT) has 11 HR in 245 AB. That's an enticing number of HR for a catcher, but a 69% ct% is holding Synder back from better things. For a two-year span in 2006-2007, Snyder had a 79% ct%. And as we like to say at Baseball HQ, "Once you display a skill, you own it." Even three years later, Snyder is capable of recapturing a higher contact rate which will lead to more HR. However, based on Snyder's consistently poor contact rate in 2010, we doubt he will see any improvement until 2011.
Since being called up in early June, Mike Stanton (OF, FLA) has hit 14 HR in 226 AB. Unfortunately, Stanton also has 80 strikeouts, giving him a poor 65% ct%. Stanton is no stranger to lots of power with lots of strikeouts. During the past two seasons in the minors, Stanton struck out over 150 times each season, while delivering 39 HR in 2008 and 28 HR in 2009.
To his credit, during his stint in the Majors this year, Stanton has improved his contact rate each month, starting with a horrible 58% in June but raising it to 71% in August. Stanton is only 20 years old, but he has a high ceiling because of his excellent power and his demonstrated ability to make ct% adjustments at the Major League level.
Drew Stubbs (OF, CIN) has shown us an impressive power/speed combination this year, with 15 HR and 20 SB in 382 AB. Stubbs is holding himself back from both more HR and more SB with a 67% ct% and a .304 OBP. Those subpar rates are unexpected given that Stubbs had a 75% ct% and a .350 OBP at Triple-A in 2009. Those numbers tell us that Stubbs can shore up his flagging contact and on base abilities, and he may have to do so in order to hold off the competition in a crowded Reds OF as the Reds push for a playoff berth.
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