Free Preview
The following is a free sample of a column from Baseball HQ, one of hundreds readers receive during the course of their subscription. Get a competitive advantage in your league by subscribing today!
MINOR LEAGUES: Top 3B Prospects
Rob Gordon - March 12, 2010
In a year when the quality of draftable third basemen is a bit less than usual, here is how the pool of rising prospects stack up.
$5-$9
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)?..B/L...T/R?.Age: 23...6?3?, 235#.....2008 (1) Vanderbilt.
Strengths: Strength. Bat speed/power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Arm strength. Soft hands
Weaknesses: Speed (4.4). First-step quickness.
Comments: Complete hitter with plus power, ability to center baseball, and strike zone judgment. Swing has slight uppercut and is always balanced. Lacks speed or first-step quickness, but possesses the arm strength and soft hands needed to play 3B. Needs to watch his conditioning, but has the potential to hit 40 home runs in the majors and could debut in mid-2010.
2010 MLB Role: Potential starting 3B by mid-season.
Potential Rating: 9B
David Freese (STL)?..B/R?T/R?..Age: 26?..2006 (9) South Alabama by San Diego.
Strengths: Strength. Bat speed/moderate power. Arm strength
Weaknesses: Strike zone judgment. Speed/agility. First-step quickness
Comments: Strong hitter with improved bat speed and contact ability. Had a chance to win the starting job in STL this spring, but broke his ankle in a car accident. Impressed when he returned to action. Plate discipline is mediocre and could get exploited by better pitching, but the power is legit. Below average speed and agility, but has a strong arm and soft hands to make him an average defender. Will get a chance to earn regular playing time at 3B in STL, but will need to earn the job and show he is healthy. Could be a nice sleeper in 2010.
2010 MLB Role: Starting 3B
Potential Rating: 8D
$1-$4
Mat Gamel (MIL)?..B/L...T/R?..Age: 23?..6'0"", 200#...2005 (4) Chipola JC.
Strengths: Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Arm strength
Weaknesses: Speed/agility. Stiff hands
Comments: Pure hitter with excellent bat speed and contact ability, giving him above average power and OBP. Uses whole field, but improved ability to pull inside pitches. Arm strength is solid, but poor first-step quickness and stiff hands continue to limit development and MLB playing time. Looked less dynamic at the plate in ?09 and will need to find a way to earn AB in the majors in 2010.
2010 MLB Role: Reserve 3B
Potential Rating: 9D
Danny Valencia (MIN).....R/R....25.....2006 (19) Miami-FL
Strengths: Consistent producer. Plus bat speed/strength/moderate power. Pitch recognition. Athleticism. First-step quickness. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Plate patience. Speed. Breaking balls.
Comments: Strong infielder with consistently-moderate power derived from plus bat speed and solid strength. Pitch recognition continues to improve, though breaking balls still give fits. Projects to moderate BA and power with no speed. Defensively shows first-step quickness and strong arm, but OK range and footwork. This spring, Valencia is battling Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Brendan Harris for the starting 3B job in MIN. So far, Velancia is off to the best start and is worth keeping an eye on this spring.
2010 MLB Role: Starting 3B
Potential Rating: 7B
Josh Bell (BAL).....B/R....23.....2005 (4) HS (FL) by Los Angeles Dodgers
Strengths: Above average bat speed/power. Average range and hands. Strong arm.
Weaknesses: Agility. Making contact. Hitting LHP.
Comments: Strong and muscular switch-hitter with plus power to all fields. Hits much better from left side as he struggles with LHP. Exhibits patience at the plate with improved contact. Vastly improved defense with better agility and footwork to go along with average range and hands. Having a strong spring but will most likely start the year at Triple-A, though a strong first half and/or slow start by M. Tejada could lead to 2nd half playing time.
2010 MLB Role: Starting 3B
Potential Rating: 8C
Brett Wallace (TOR).....L/R....23.....2008 (1) Arizona State by St. Louis Cardinals
Strengths: Pure hitter. Mature approach with plate discipline. Plus bat speed and power. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Speed and agility. Range. First-step quickness. Athleticism.
Comments: Natural and instinctual hitter with an outstanding bat and exceptional approach at plate. Possesses plus power and easy ability to hit LHP and RHP. Could challenge for batting titles as he knows strike zone. Strong arm is only other plus tool. Defense at 3B is very poor, but can make routine plays at. Lack of speed, agility, and range pushed him to 1B/DH in Toronto, but could see some action at 3B over the long-term.
2010 MLB Role: Starting 3B/DH
Potential Rating: 9B
Todd Frazier (CIN)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 24?..6'3", 220#....2007 (1-S) Rutgers.
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Arm strength. Soft hands
Weaknesses: Speed (4.4). Range
Comments: Strong athlete possesses bat speed and good power. Worked hard to shorten his stroke and has good bat speed. The results were good - 45 doubles, 16 home runs, and an avg of .292 in ?09. Makes consistent hard contact and uses the entire field. Decent plate discipline and OB ability. Features a strong throwing arm, but below average speed translates to below average range. Will likely see some action in CIN at some point in 2010 and can play 3B, SS, 1B, and OF ? but future is likely in the OF.
2010 MLB Role: 4th OF.
Potential Rating: 9D
Juan Francisco (CIN)?..B/L...B/R?..Age: 22?..6'2"", 180....2004 NDFA (D.R.).
Strengths: Strength. Moderate bat speed/power/BA ability. Plus arm strength
Weaknesses: Speed (4.5). First-step quickness. Stiff hands
Comments: Strong power hitter with an all-or-nothing swing. Mixed results in ?09. Showed enough power and offense to reach the majors, but failed to improve strike zone judgment. Power is mostly to pull field and lacks balance, but his dreadful plate discipline and tendency to chase pitches will keep BA low. Possesses plus arm strength, but lacks agility and instincts, making defense below average.
2010 MLB Role: Potential 4th OF/Platoon 3B.
Potential Rating: 8D
Long-term:
Josh Vitters (CHC)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 20?..6'3", 200#....2007 (1) Anaheim, CA.
Strengths: Athleticism. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Strike zone judgment. Arm strength. Soft hands
Weaknesses: Speed. Reading groundballs
Comments: Strong/athletic hitter combines bat speed and a compact swing to drive the ball for power and BA. Strong effort in the MWL in ?09, hitting for power and average. Stalled after being promoted to FSL. Plate discipline is a concern, but centers the ball well and gets extension. Arm strength and soft hands play-up well at 3B, but needs work on his groundball reads.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 9C
Matt Dominguez (FLA)....B/R...T/R....Age: 20....6'1", 210#....2007 (1) Chatsworth, CA.
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Plus arm strength. Soft hands. First-step quickness
Weaknesses: Long swing. Speed (4.35)
Comments: Strong hitter with the bat speed to hit for moderate power, and the contact ability and plate discipline to maintain a solid BA. Swing has some length to it, but his inside-out swing path keeps him inside the ball. Possesses plus defense with arm strength, soft hands, and first-step quickness. Marlins have been aggressive with him and was overmatched with late season promotion to Double-A in ?09.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 9C
Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE).....L/R....21.....2008 (1) Pitt CC
Strengths: Athleticism. Pure hitting skills. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Speed. Stiff hands. Range. Hitting LHP.
Comments: Strong and athletic pure-hitting infielder struggled upon promotion to AA, but possesses plus offensive skills. Owns short, quick stroke that produces BA and moderate power. Recognizes pitches well and uses the whole field. First season as 3B and has arm strength, but below average range and hands.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 9D
Mike Moustakas (KC).....L/R....21.....2007 (1) HS (CA)
Strengths: Plus bat speed/power. Pitch recognition and plate coverage. Soft hands. Strong arm.
Weaknesses: Range. Aggressive approach. Pull-conscious.
Comments: Strong and aggressive hitter with potential to become offensive star. Displays well above average power potential due to bat speed and strong swing. Can hit for BA thanks to clean swing path and knowledge of strike zone. Aggressive nature reduces OBP and can be pull-conscious. Owns terrific arm strength, but limited footwork and range.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 9D
James Darnell (SD)?..B/R...T/R?.Age: 22...6?2?/195#.....2008 (2) South Carolina.
Strengths: Strength/average speed (4.3). Bat speed. Plus power potential. BA ability. Plate discipline. Arm strength. First-step quickness.
Weaknesses: Pull-conscious. Stiff hands.
Comments: Athletic/powerful 3B prospect put together an impressive season, splitting time between Low and High-A. Plus plate discipline and solid bat speed allow him to control the strike zone and drive balls to all parts of the field. Should be able to hit for average and moderate to good power. Inconsistent defensively and some feel he will move off 3B eventually - but that bat is legit.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 9D
Bobby Borchering (ARI)...B/B...T/R....Age: 18....6'4", 195#....2009 (1) Bishop Verot HS, FL.
Strengths: Size. Future Power Potential. Arm strength. Plus Bat Speed. Strength. Switch-hitter
Weaknesses: Range at 3B.
Comments: Decent professional debut for HS standout and 2009 1st rounder. Bochering has good size (6'4") and has plenty of athleticism and nice power and offensive upside. In addition to the plus power, Bochering is a switch-hitter, athletic, and plays solid defense - though a lack of range is likely to result in a move to 1B in the near future.
MLB Debut: 2012.
Potential Rating: 9D
Matt Davidson (ARI)....B/R....T/R....Age: 18...6'3", 210.....2009 (1-S) Yucaipa HS, CA.
Strengths: Bat speed. Plus power potential. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Defense. Range. Hands. Pitch recognition. Long swing. Plate discipline.
Comments: One of the more powerful prepsters in the '09 draft class. Plus bat speed and excellent power potential. At time approach at the plate is solid with a short, powerful stroke - but swing can get long and can be beat with good off-speed stuff as he struggles with pitch recognition. Defensively he is a bit stiff, with limit4ed range and is unlikely to stick at 3B long-term (though he does have a strong arm as he was his HS team's closer), with 1B the most likely option. Will need to make some adjustments, but power upside is legit and he could develop into a very nice bat.
MLB Debut: 2013.
Potential Rating: 9D
Luis Jimenez (ANA).....R/R....21....2006 FA (Venezuela)
Strengths: Plus bat speed and power potential. Plate coverage. Consistent contact. Strong arm. Range.
Weaknesses: Expands strike zone. First-step quickness. Footwork.
Comments: Athletic infielder missed entire 2009 season due to shoulder surgery. Led PIO in HR and XBH in '08 and has considerable bat talent. Plus bat speed results in hard contact and plus power, particularly to pull side. Aggressive approach drags OBP, but can hit for BA due to plate coverage and contact. Solid defender at 3B.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 9E
Jefry Marte (NYM)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 19?..2007 NDFA (D.R.).
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Bat speed/power. Average arm strength.
Weaknesses: Contact/BA ability. Strike zone judgment. Average speed (4.3). Range. Stiff hands.
Comments: Top international sign in ?08 struggled in his full-season professional debut, hitting just .233. Marte was only 18 in ?09 so may have been rushed and still has time to develop. Has plus bat speed, power to all fields. Plate discipline was disastrous (25BB/117K) and will need to improve to remain a top prospect. Possesses average arm strength at 3B, but his range and hands are below average.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 9E
Brandon Waring (BAL).....R/R....24.....2007 (7) Wofford by Cincinnati Reds
Strengths: Plus bat speed/power. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Athleticism/speed/agility. Long swing. Plate discipline.
Comments: Tall and strong hitter who led CAR in SLG and was player of year ?09. Not much athleticism or secondary skills, but produces plus power to all fields. Long, vicious swing results in strikeouts and a low BA and strike zone knowledge lags behind. Poor footwork and range at 3B will likely move him to 1B full-time.
2010 MLB Role: Reserve 1B/3B
Potential Rating: 8D
Will Middlebrooks (BOS).....R/R....21.....2007 (5) HS (TX)
Strengths: Plus bat speed/moderate BA ability/power. Arm strength. First-step quickness.
Weaknesses: Pitch recognition. Contact. Range.
Comments: Strong and athletic infielder has lost time to injuries, but has immense talent. Power is developing and could hit 25+ HR down the road while keeping BA moderately high. Plate discipline and pitch recognition need work. Possesses a strong arm and soft hands at 3B with solid first-step quickness.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 8C
Matt Sweeney (TAM).....L/R....22.....2006 (8) HS (MD) by Los Angeles Angels
Strengths: Strength. Clean swing mechanics. BA ability/power potential. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Hitting LHP. Hands and agility.
Comments: Pure-hitting infielder returned from missing entire '08 season and still lost time due to hip issues. Exhibits raw power with an improving eye and bat control. Needs to solve LHP, but should hit for BA and power. Needs to improve defense at 3B where he lacks agility and hands may necessitate move to 1B.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 8D
Brent Morel (CWS).....R/R....22.....2008 (3) Cal Poly
Strengths: Plus arm strength. Making contact. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Hands.
Weaknesses: On-base skills. First-step quickness.
Comments: Muscular and strong hitter with no noticeable weakness. Average to plus tools across board, led by contact ability and moderate power. Prefers to go gap-to-gap with line-drive swing and is tough to fan. Doesn't draw many walks, but makes easy contact. Owns soft hands and strong arm and has nice feel for 3B.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 8B
Jon Gilmore (CWS).....R/R....21.....2007 (1-S) HS (IA) by Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Plus bat speed/moderate power. Plate coverage. Uses entire field. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: BA ability. Speed. Stiff hands. First-step quickness.
Comments: Aggressive and athletic infielder with good bat speed and moderate power potential. Poor eye and pitch recognition may mute BA, but has good plate coverage and uses the entire field. Offers little speed and steals few bases. Defensively sound with good arm strength, but hands are stiff and footwork needs upgrading.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 8D
Wade Gaynor (DET).....R/R....21.....2009 (3) Western Kentucky
Strengths: Size and strength. Plus bat speed/power. Plate coverage. Athleticism. Arm strength.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent swing. Aggressive approach. Range.
Comments: Athletic and strong infielder has excellent size, strength, and bat speed to project to plus pop. Long arms give him ample plate coverage, but swing can be choppy, thus keeping BA low. Athleticism and fundamentals are good at 3B and offers a strong arm. Range and footwork are below average currently.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 7C
Alex Liddi (SEA).....R/R....21.....2005 FA (Italy)
Strengths: Athleticism. Moderate bat speed/BA ability/moderate power. Plus arm strength. Hands.
Weaknesses: Making contact. Speed. Plate discipline.
Comments: Tall and athletic infielder who took advantage of home park to lead minors in BA and 6th in SLG in ?09. Possesses swing mechanics and bat speed for BA and power, but strikes out in bunches and draws few walks due to lack of plate discipline. Soft, quick hands, strong arm, and feet make him capable defender.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 8C
Jefry Marte (NYM)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 19?..2007 NDFA (D.R.).
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Bat speed/power. Average arm strength.
Weaknesses: Contact/BA ability. Strike zone judgment. Average speed (4.3). Range. Stiff hands.
Comments: Top international sign in 08 struggled in his full-season professional debut, hitting just .233. Marte was only 18 in 09 so may have been rushed and still has time to develop. Has plus bat speed, power to all fields. Plate discipline was disastrous (25BB/117K) and will need to improve to remain a top prospect. Possesses average arm strength at 3B, but his range and hands are below average.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 9E
Neftali Soto (CIN)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 21?..6'2". 180#....2007 (3-C) high school (P.R.)
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Arm strength. Soft/quick hands
Weaknesses: Strike zone judgment. Average speed (4.3). Range
Comments: Lean/athletic hitter with a grip-it-and-rip-it approach and solid bat speed, giving him excellent power. Lack of plate discipline resulted in low BA in ?09 and could limit development if not addressed. Good bad-ball hitter. Arm strength and soft hands work well and can play a solid 3B, but lacks the range for SS.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 8D
Chris Johnson (HOU)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 25?..2006 (4) Stetson.
Strengths: Strength. Moderate bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Arm strength
Weaknesses: Strike zone judgment. Speed. First-step quickness
Comments: Muscular hitter who generates good bat speed through strike zone, enabling him to hit for moderate power. BA remains playable despite poor strike zone judgment and is the type that feasts on weak pitching. Arm strength compensates for what he lacks in first-step quickness.
2010 MLB Role: Reserve 3B Potential Rating: 7C
Chase D'Arnaud (PIT)?.Age: 23?.6'1". 175#.....2008 (4) Pepperdine.
Strengths: Solid defender. Can play SS/3B. Makes consistent contact.
Weaknesses: Limited power.
Comments: Solid/average college SS/3B prospect. Good approach at the plate. Should have moderate/gap power down the road, but maybe not enough to start in the majors. Average defender at SS, could be moved to 3B where he played some in college, but that is a dead end with P. Alvarez in the fold in PIT. Most likely a utility guy for now. Missed action due to a sprained thumb.
MLB Debut: 2011.
Potential Rating: 8C
Neil Walker (PIT)?..B/B...T/R?..Age: 24?..6'3"", 210....2004 (1) Pittsburgh, PA.
Strengths: Athleticism/agility. Moderate bat speed/BA ability/moderate power. Arm strength. Soft hands
Weaknesses: Plate discipline. Speed (4.35). Range
Comments: Strong/athletic player with bat speed and barrel awareness, but struggled with plate discipline and a low BABIP. Shows power from RH side and contact from LH side. Runs well for size. Defense has improved immensely, featuring arm strength and first-step quickness. Will need to find a new position or new organization with Pedro Alvarez in the fold, but for now remains at 3B.
2009 MLB Role: Reserve 3B
Potential Rating: 8D
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)?..B/R?T/R...Age: 22?.6'4", 220#.....2009 (8) Texas State.
Strengths: Strength. Advanced idea of what he can do. Power.
Weaknesses: Speed. Limited Range. Defense. Average bat speed. Ability to handle breaking balls.
Comments: Powerful/athletic college 1B/3B flew under the radar on draft day, but had one of the best professional debuts of the '09 class. Strong hand and plus power, but not plus bat speed. Can get fooled by breaking balls and sometimes cheats/guesses to get to good FB so the power might not translate as he moves up. Solid defender, but lack of speed limits him to 1B.
MLB Debut: 2011.
Rating Potential: 8D
Nolan Arenado (COL) ....B/R...T/R...Age: 19...6'1", 205#.....2009 (2) El Toro HS, CA.
Strengths: Strength. Bat speed. Power potential. Good hands. Strong arm.
Weaknesses: Stiff. Limited range at 3B. Lack of speed.
Comments: Arenado played both 3B and catcher in high school, but was moved to 3B after being drafted in the 2nd round by the Rockies. Solid, powerful frame. At the plate Arenado has good power, but can be a bit stiff at the plate. As a professional he showed solid plate discipline and had an impressive debut.
MLB Debut: 2013.
Potential Rating: 8D
Pedro Baez (LA)?..B/R...T/R?..Age: 21?..6'2"", 195#....2007 NDFA (D.R.).
Strengths: Strength. Bat speed/power/BA ability. Plus arm strength. Range. Soft hands.
Weaknesses: Strike zone judgment. Speed.
Comments: Maturely built hitter with bat speed and strong wrists that are capable of plus power. Pitch recognition will need to improve to keep BA acceptable. Below average runner and will have to watch body. Possesses plus arm strength and soft hands in providing above average defense.
MLB Debut: 2012
Potential Rating: 8D
Edinson Rincon (SD)?.B/R?T/R?.Age: 19?.2007 NDFA (D.R.)
Strengths: Power. Strength. Bat speed/BA. Plate discipline.
Weaknesses: Agility at 3B. Stiff hand. Limited range.
Comments: Powerful/athletic 3B prospect who put up some nice numbers in SS NOR in ?09. Good bat speed and solid strike zone judgment should allow him to hit for average and power. Defensively still very much a work in progress. Stiff hand and less than ideal footwork could force him across the diamond to 1B - but the offensive upside is enough give him value at whatever position he plays.
MLB Debut: 2012.
Potential Rating: 9E
Logan Forsythe (SD)?.B/R?T/R?.Age: 23?.6'1"", 195#....2008 (1-S) Arkansas.
Strengths: Athleticism/strength. Moderate bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Average range. Soft hands
Weaknesses: Average arm strength
Comments: Athletic and versatile infielder, settling in at 3B where he has good range and arm strength. Breakout year in '09, hitting for average with plus plate discipline and good OB%. Makes solid contact and centers the ball well, though his swing is slightly unorthodox, but should hit for BA with moderate power.
MLB Debut: 2010
Potential Rating: 8D
Conor Gillaspie (SF)?.B/L...T/R?.Age: 22.....6?1?, 200#...2008 (1-S) Wichita State.
Strengths: Athleticism. Moderate bat speed/moderate power/BA ability. Plate discipline. Average arm strength.
Weaknesses: Speed (4.35). Range. Only moderate power upside.
Comments: Athletic ?08 1st rounder. Has good bat speed and extension through the zone to hit for BA and moderate power. Despite a lean/athletic build, he doesn?t have much speed or range, and isn?t helped defensively by having average arm strength. Has best plate discipline in organization. Defense is subpar, which could result in a move to the OF. Power did not emerge in the CAL, but OB skill is solid.
MLB Debut: 2011
Potential Rating: 8C
Receive weekly Baseball HQ insights via e-mail with a FREE SUBSCRIPTION to Baseball HQ Friday. News analyses, gaming strategies and Ron Shandler's Master Notes, every Friday from January through September, always FREE. Subscribe today!
More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
FANALYTICS: Snake? Auction? Floor Wax? Dessert Topping?
THE SPECULATOR: Spring training question marks
BATTING BUYERS GUIDE: Spring training question marks
SCORESHEET GAMING: Fire it up
HEAD-TO-HEAD GAMING: What I learned in 2009
MARKET PULSE: Catcher ADP Analysis
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: Previewing Target Field
MARKET PULSE: Revindication
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: A new look at the LIMA Plan
FANALYTICS: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
Comments? Contact us here. Baseball HQ is intended for entertainment purposes only. No part of this site may be reproduced or retransmitted without written permission of the publisher. All rights reserved. Copyright ©2010.
Fantasy Sports Ventures - 1500 Broadway, Suite 810, New York, NY 10036 - (800) 422-7820
Fantasy Baseball Rankings | Fantasy Baseball Projections | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheets