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Braden's ERA belies skills trend

February 5, 2010 - Brent Hershey

Dallas Braden (LHP, OAK) looks like a safe pick on the surface--26 years old, a 3-something ERA two years running and pitching for an organization that seeks young contributors. With the whole picture, though, his prospects looks less rosy:

Year     IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  H%  S%  BPV
====    ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ==  ==  ===
2007*   148  5.13  4.27  2.9  7.6  2.7  33  64   75   
2008*   125  3.58  4.52  2.6  5.9  2.3  31  78   53
2009    137  3.88  4.77  2.8  5.3  1.9  31  72   36

*includes MLE

There are several reasons why Braden is not on our "next step potential" list for 2010:

• Though he's had a pretty ERA the past two seasons, xERA has steadily risen. With relatively neutral hit and strand rates, the problem turns to skills.
• Ctl has held steady, but Dom has taken a precipitous dive into sub-5.6 territory. Similarly, BPV and Cmd trends raise caution.
• He's also coming off an ankle injury that kept him out of action for August and September. Braden is expected to be ready for camp, but the possibility of rusty start cannot be overlooked.

Though Braden is young and still owns those skills from 2007, he needs to reverse his BPI direction and re-establish his Cmd. Consider a third sub-4.00 ERA season a longshot.

Free Reads

HEAD-TO-HEAD GAMING -- Kris Olson

What I learned in 2009

No matter how long one has played fantasy baseball, each season supplies new hypotheses to be tested over time. That is perhaps even truer for the player weaned on traditional Rotisserie baseball trying to adapt to head-to-head leagues.

Just as with the grizzled newspaper veteran who must now work in the Internet age, the “old-school” Rotisserie player will find that, while some of his skills and methods may have universal application, others will have to be tailored to address their shortcomings to play the new game, and a few may have to be abandoned altogether.

With apologies to those who have never known a game other than head-to-head, here are lessons one longtime Rotisserie player at least thinks he may have learned about head-to-head in 2009:

More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
MARKET PULSE: Third Time Lucky?
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: Previewing Target Field
FACTS & FLUKES: Realities and mirages for 2010
FANALYTICS: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
FANALYTICS: Quint-Inning - The Official Rules

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