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Falling bb% and ct% make a Pena repeat unlikely
May 9, 2008 - Brent Hershey
Though he connected for his eighth homer on Thursday night, Carlos Pena (1B, TAM) has been an disappointment so far, hitting just .200/.281/.391 through Wednesday. Certainly it's a stretch to expect a repeat his 46-HR, 121-RBI 2007, but has Pena returned to the crowded land of .800ish OPS cornermen as quickly as he left?Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% Eye h% PX ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == === 2004 481 .241 .256 13 70 0.48 29 153 2005* 517 .254 .253 12 70 0.45 31 146 2006* 451 .249 .264 12 76 0.57 28 115 2007 490 .282 .315 17 71 0.73 30 233 2008 115 .200 .222 10 63 0.31 24 149 *includes MLE
From an early-May point of view, that conclusion is quite possible. From these numbers, Pena's 2007 success can be linked at least partially to a walk-rate spike (see 2007 xBA)--which in 2008 has declined past his established historical baseline. Contact rate, never a strong point before, now resides at Howard-esque levels. While fewer batted balls are falling in for hits (h%) this season, 2008 xBA doesn't predict much movement. On the positive side, PX and his FB% (44% after 45% in 2008) indicate that the power ability is still present. But with bb%, ct% and h% working against him, a batting average repeat (and his subsequent place among AL elite cornermen) will be a tough task for Pena.
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Free Reads
ROTISSERIE GAMING -- Brent Grooms
Recovering from a slow start
The month of April is done and has left some of us at the bottom end of the standings. Should we start making wholesale changes to our rosters including our early round picks? The answer to that question is a resounding no.
More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
Speed Buyers Guide: Slow starters
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Batting Average Buyers Guide: Beyond the 25-Man Rosters
Market Pulse: Draft trends effects
Fanalytics: The LIMA Plan
Fanalytics: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
Fanalytics: Quint-Inning - The Official Rules
Fanalytics: The great myths of projective accuracy
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Subscriber-Only Features
Ron Shandler's Fanalytics -- May 10
Tourniquet
I woke up on the morning of April 24 to find my Tout Wars team (12-team AL) in last place. Not only was this team scraping bottom, but it was doing it in style... 39 points, 62 points out of first... and 10 points behind the 11th place team. I don't worry too much about these things in April; it's early, the dust hasn't yet cleared on all the anomalies. But it didn't get any better...
Brent Hershey - American League - May 9
Falling bb% and ct% make a Pena repeat unlikely
Though he connected for his eighth homer on Thursday night, Carlos Pena (1B, TAM) has been an disappointment so far, hitting just .200/.281/.391 through Wednesday. Certainly it's a stretch to expect a repeat his 46-HR, 121-RBI 2007, but has Pena returned to the crowded land of .800ish OPS cornermen as quickly as he left?
Harold Nichols - National League - May 9
Badenhop gets first major league win
Burke Badenhop (RHP, FLA) got his first major league win on Wednesday, holding the Brewers to two runs in 5.2 IP. Badenhop struggled in his first three starts in the majors, with two PQS disasters, but Wednesday was his second consecutive PQS dominant start. Could he have fanalytic value as the season progresses? Let's take a closer look.
Brandon Kruse - Batting Average Buyers Guide - May 9
New Faces on the Top Skills List
As we said in our "Using the Charts" column back in the first week of the season, The Top Skills charts are meant to be a resource for finding hitters with a strong skill base that should allow them to maintain an elite or near-elite batting average for most of the season. Scanning through the AL and NL lists right now reveals a number of new faces, players who have never before met the skill minimums required to be considered a "Top Skill" batter. This week, we'd like to take a look at 10 of those new faces, analyzing the skill changes that have put them on the list and assessing their prospects for staying there.
Market Pulse -Matt Beagle- May 9
More Pitching for Mother's Day
Without question, the quest for pitching dominates the waiver wires. Despite the presence of a batter this week, the importance of discerning quality pitching contributors from pretenders dominates this part of the season. Find out the best time to roster a high risk/high reward pitcher - and when to avoid one. [an error occurred while processing this directive]
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