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Carlson attractive LIMA option in Toronto pen

March 21, 2010 - Harold Nichols

We expected Jesse Carlson (LHP, TOR) to regress last season after his superb 2.25 ERA in 2008, and regress he did. He soared to a 5.24 ERA in the first half that undoubtedly got him removed from most fanalytic rosters and relegated to bullpen obscurity. But not so fast... Carlson quietly put together a solid second half that should put him back on your radar.

Period IP   ERA  xERA  H%  S%  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  BPV
====== ==  ====  ====  ==  ==  ===  ===  ===  ===
2008   60  2.25  3.74  23  84  3.2  8.3  2.6   76
09-1H  36  5.24  4.81  33  62  3.0  6.5  2.2   47
09-2H  32  3.99  3.73  26  71  2.6  7.1  2.8   79

There are several reasons to keep Jesse Carlson on your radar at draft time.

• He wasn't going to duplicate 2008 in any event, as his xERA showed. His sub-3.00 ERA was the result of a lucky low hit rate/high strand rate combination.
• His poor first half in 2009 was the product of a high hit rate and low strand rate (the regression we were expecting). His skills remained solid, although a dip in command contributed to his problems.
• The second half likely reflected Carlson's true skills, as his xERA, Command, and BPV tracked very closely with his 2008 indicators.

Jesse Carlson has solid skills that make him an attractive (B+) LIMA option. We're projecting a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. And with most of the attention in the Toronto pen focused on the closer competition, he's likely to slide well under the radar. Keep him in mind at the end of the draft, especially in deep leagues.

Free Reads

BATTING BUYERS GUIDE -- Joshua Randall

End-Gamers

The end game means the last few rounds of a draft or during "dollar days" at an auction; for a player to be a target, he has to have a high likelihood of earning more than he cost (in R$ terms). To identify end game players, we used the Average Draft Position report. We looked for players whose ADP was 300 or higher, equating to round 20 or later in a 15-team mixed league. In addition, with one exception, the players covered in this article were drafted in fewer than 40% of the sample -- so if your league is at all similar, there's better than an even chance that these players won't even be selected at your draft or bought at your auction... except by you.

More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
MINOR LEAGUES: Top 3B Prospects
FANALYTICS: Snake? Auction? Floor Wax? Dessert Topping?
THE SPECULATOR: Spring training question marks
SCORESHEET GAMING: Fire it up
HEAD-TO-HEAD GAMING: What I learned in 2009
MARKET PULSE: Catcher ADP Analysis
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: Previewing Target Field
MARKET PULSE: Revindication
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: A new look at the LIMA Plan
FANALYTICS: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation

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Playing Time Today - Tuesday - Tom Kephart

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Facts/Flukes - Tuesday - Joe Hoffer

Is Mike Cameron headed for a rapid decline?

Batting Buyers Guide - Joshua Randall

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Playing Time Today - Monday - Scott Gellman

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