Who has the most accurate player projections?
It's a question that you have probably asked at one time or another. But the answer is not so simple. There are biases and obstacles that get in the way of any comparison.
And there are questions for which there are no answers, such as...
If a projected slugging pct. is dead on, but the player hits 10 fewer HRs than expected (and likely, 20 more doubles), is that success or a failure? If projected hits and walks allowed by a pitcher is on the mark, but the bullpen and defense implodes, inflating his ERA by a run, is that success or a failure?
When you come down to it, the question of who has the most accurate projections is one that might not have an answer. This is troubling for most fantasy leaguers. But the truth is, there are elements of this game that are far more valuable than the most accurate projection.
Baseball HQ can show you what those elements are, and how to use them in tandem with any reasonable projection to win.
Start here with Baseball HQ Friday, for FREE, along with this special report, the new 2009 edition of "The Great Myths of Projective Accuracy." Then take the leap to Baseball HQ. Thousands of fantasy baseball winners call it home. Because it's all about winning.
Ron Shandler
Publisher
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