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SPEED BUYERS GUIDE: Slow starters
Scott Monroe - April 25, 2008
Each of the players in the below chart were projected for at least 20 SBs in our preseason projections, but each of them are significantly below that pace thus far this year. On the left side, each player's projected SBs, SBO% and SX is shown, and on the right side of the chart are their current SBs, SB Pace, SBO% and SX. Each player is discussed below to assess if our preseason expectations should be adjusted based on their respective slow starts. The players are sorted by their projected SBs. Players who have been on the DL this season (such as Jimmy Rollins, Dave Roberts and Shane Victorino) are excluded, since their injuries are the main reason behind their slow SB pace thus far.
Player Name Tm pSB pSBO pSX | SB Pace SBO SX =============== === === ==== === | == ==== === === Reyes,Jose NYM 62 46 164 | 3 26 29 140 Crawford,Carl TAM 53 41 174 | 5 41 26 131 Velez,Eugenio SF 32 58 146 | 2 15 44 115 Byrnes,Eric ARI 33 26 134 | 3 24 24 120 Freel,Ryan CIN 26 30 120 | 1 8 30 72 Patterson,Corey CIN 24 41 140 | 2 15 38 135 Kemp,Matt LA 23 22 135 | 1 8 8 119 Crisp,Coco BOS 23 20 133 | 2 15 15 68 Abreu,Bobby NYY 22 15 111 | 1 8 13 89 Rodriguez,Alex NYY 20 12 103 | 1 8 6 58
Jose Reyes (SS, NYM): Reyes has been slowed slightly by a strained hamstring, and this is the main likely reason behind his slow start. Otherwise, he's been just fine, except possibly for a slightly depressed walk rate (5% thus far, as compared to last year's 10% rate). Reyes has not attempted to steal as much as he has in the past few years, as his current 29% SBO is well below his typical 44% - 48% rates over the last three years. But expect Reyes' SB rate to pick up as the weather gets warmer.
Carl Crawford (OF, TAM): Crawford's main issue thus far is his 2% walk rate. Although Crawford does not normally walk much (he averages a 5% rate over the past three seasons), he is still well below his average at this point in the year. And similar to Reyes, Crawford also is not attempting SBs as much as normal in the early going (26% SBO thus far, as compared to his normal rate around 40%). But, one good sign is that Crawford's contact rate is at 91% so far, up significantly from last year's 81% rate that was mentioned as a "possible cause for concern" in this year's Baseball Forecaster. His SB totals should be fine.
Eugenio Velez (2B, SF): Velez was a big-time speed sleeper this spring, but he has yet to set the world on fire with his SB attempts this month. He has gotten ABs due to injuries to Dave Roberts and Ray Durham, but Velez and his .228 BA and .254 OBP has yet to take advantage of this early playing time. But, Velez's .287 xBA suggests that he has been hurt somewhat by bad luck (and a 27% hit rate), so more times on base should be in his future. He also has not run as much as forecast (44% current SBO as compared to a projected 58% SBO), but this could be due to Mgr Bruce Bochy not wanting to loosen the reigns quite as much in the early going. Velez certainly has the speed skills, and if he can continue getting ABs he should showcase these skills soon enough.
Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI): Byrnes is pretty much where he needs to be thus far this season. Decent walk rate and contact rate? Check (11% and 91%, respectively). Solid BA and high OBP? Check (.293 and .370). SBO% between 24% and 32%? Check (currently 24%). Byrnes' only blemish is in his SB success rate. He currently has three SBs in five attempts, only a 60% success rate. Byrnes was successful on 88% of his SB attempts last year, and his career average is 87%. Byrnes is only 32 and presumably has not suddenly lost his speed or base-stealing ability, so expect his successes to increase and his overall totals to be right around his preseason projection.
Ryan Freel (OF, CIN): Freel's main problem has been a lack of playing time. With Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper all competing with Freel for ABs in CF, Freel has only 34 AB on the season and has started only three out of the past 10 games. That equates to only 262 ABs for the year, much less than the 358 that were projected for Freel in the preseason. Freel's current 30% SBO is just what was projected for him, so he is stealing when he gets the chance, he just needs more chances. But unless Patterson ends up being traded or released, or Freel himself is traded to another team, chances are that Freel's ABs and SBs will not reach his projected totals.
Corey Patterson (OF, CIN): Patterson is quite an anomaly. You would think that his slow start would be based on the usual BPI problems that plague him - low walk rate, low contact rate, low batting eye, etc. But part of Patterson's problem this year is his power. Patterson's current PX is 162 - over twice as high as the 78 PX that he put together in 2007. Heading into last night's game, he had 12 hits on the year, and 10 of them have been for extra bases. He has also walked six times, for a total of eight walks and singles. If you take his three SB attempts and divide by those eight singles and walks, you get a 37.5% SBO, which is close to last year's 42% and his projected 41%. So Patterson's slow SB totals are due more to a lack of opportunities, and not because of poor BPIs. He has a 9% walk rate, 93% contact rate, and had drawn six walks against only four Ks (a 1.5 Eye). His low 15% hit rate is the main problem, not his approach at the plate. It is odd, but if Patterson can continue his current approach, his H% should rise and his BA and OBP will increase as well, and his SB opportunities should multiply. Based on these stats, Patterson is a buy-low candidate, although his track record would indicate that he cannot maintain these quality BPIs.
Matt Kemp (OF, LA): Kemp has seen his playing time reduced partially because of Joe Torre's desire to see more of Juan Pierre. Kemp was projected for 538 ABs but is currently on pace for only 470. Throw in a poor walk rate (3%) and contact rate (71%), and only Kemp's inflated 38% hit rate is keeping his OBP above .300. As Kemp's H% should trend downwards toward 30%, if he cannot manage to increase his walk rate and contact rate, then his BA and OBP will likely drop and his playing time could see a corresponding drop as well. Because Pierre and Ethier are other options for Torre, Kemp's early season struggles could end up costing him more SB opportunities as the season wears on.
Coco Crisp (OF, BOS): Crisp has been bothered by hamstring problems and has not played since April 15, which is the main reason for his slow start on the basepaths. Unfortunately for Crisp owners, Crisp's absence from the lineup has coincided with Jacoby Ellsbury's hot hitting. Ellsbury has hit in his last five games going into last night, and is nine-for-19 during that stretch. When Crisp resumes playing, he will need to boost his walk rate, as his current 5% rate is lower than his 9% rate last year. His .357 OBP is solid, but is partially inflated due to a 39% hit rate, so when that regresses to the expected norm his OBP will drop unless he can increase his walk totals. Ellsbury's success means that Crisp's opportunities may be reduced, so unless he makes the most of his chances once he resumes playing, then Crisp could see a playing time drop and a further decrease in SB opportunities.
Bobby Abreu (OF, NYY): Abreu has only attempted three SBs on the year, and has uncharacteristically been caught twice. His SX is somewhat depressed at 89, although that should not be a problem going forward. Abreu's BPIs are normal except for his 8% walk rate, which is 4% lower than last year's mark and 10% lower than the 18% walk rate he achieved in 2006. Expect this to climb towards last year's rate or higher as the season progresses, meaning that Abreu's OBP should rise closer to .400 rather than his current .369 mark. In short, Abreu's SB totals should be fine, and he should wind up somewhere in the neighborhood of the preseason projection of 22 SB.
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY): Rodriguez's SX has been under 100 in each of the last three seasons, and in the early-going this year his SX is only 58. While this should rise to around the league average mark, it is somewhat of a concern given Rodriguez's decreased SX the past three years. Another reason that Rodriguez has only one SB on the year is due to the fact that this is his only attempt, and his corresponding 6% SBO well below the 10-15% SBO range that he has fallen into in each of the past three years. Give Rodriguez time to get back into the lineup and for his strained quad to heal, and his SBO% should go up as he makes more SB attempts. However, these early season speed struggles could mean that Rodriguez falls short of the 20 SBs projected for him this spring.
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