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BATTING AVERAGE BUYERS GUIDE: Looking Beyond the 25-Man Rosters
Brandon Kruse - April 11, 2008
Even with drafts/auctions over and rosters in place, there are always opportunities to make your team better throughout the season. In that vein, we can look at players who did not make it onto their respective team's 25-man roster, but are currently projected to earn playing time in 2008 with a BA of .280 or higher. In some leagues, these players may still be available, and worth stashing on a reserve roster or just putting on your watch list; in others, they may be already-rostered commodities.
2008 PROJECTIONS Player BA bb% ct% h% Eye G/L/F PX SX xBA =========== ==== === === == ==== ======== === === ==== E. Longoria .284 8 79 31 0.44 -------- 127 69 ---- F. Martinez .280 8 84 31 0.54 -------- 62 64 ---- K. Mench .293 6 91 30 0.74 41/17/41 91 67 .283 K. Morales .283 5 87 30 0.41 48/13/39 93 56 .267 M. Murton .290 9 86 30 0.70 53/17/30 107 56 .297 S. Pearce .291 7 87 32 0.57 48/20/32 110 83 .309 J. Ruggiano .293 10 69 35 0.34 -------- 126 91 ---- J. Tyner .288 6 90 32 0.68 59/19/22 40 95 .284
Evan Longoria (3B, TAM) is the biggest name on this list; someone in your league may already have him tucked away. If not, then you may want to consider doing that yourself, if you have the roster room. With a .292 MLE BA in 2007, and a 1.43 Eye and 3 HR in spring training this year, he looks like he could be very good very quickly.
At just 19 years of age, Fernando Martinez (OF, NYM) would seem an unlikely candidate for playing time this season, but remember, the Mets gave Jose Reyes his major league debut at 19 as well (though to be fair, it was one day before his 20th birthday). Martinez also made an impression by hitting .340 this spring. That said, even if he does find his way onto the roster at some point, being so young, his skills aren't quite what we'd like them to be -- right now, he projects out to average plate discipline and below-average power and speed, which may not be enough to support a .280 BA. He's definitely a player whose long-term prospects outweigh his potential to contribute in 2008.
Kevin Mench (OF, TEX) has a little bit of control over his chances to make it onto a roster this season -- if the Rangers don't call him up by June 1st, he has the option of becoming a free agent. Mench has posted xBAs of .290 or higher three of the last four seasons, and while his power skills have faded, his terrific contact rates have allowed him to retain above-average BA potential.
Kendry Morales (1B, LAA) was the odd man out with the Angels this spring, despite batting .294 with the club last season, and .385 in spring training. His .267 projected xBA shows that some of those BA exploits may have been over his head, but that calculation also includes a 13% line drive rate that's awfully low. If he pushes that up to just a league-average level (18-19%) and continues the power growth he demonstrated in the second half last year (118 PX), he'll have the skills to back up a BA in the high .280s.
Matt Murton (OF, CHC) shouldn't need our touting, considering that he has a .296 career BA that's backed up by solid skills, but here we are at the start of a new season, and Murton's back in Triple-A. With a skill track record built on 830 career AB, he's probably the safest bet on this list, and whether via injury or trade, he should get another shot at playing time this year.
Steven Pearce (OF, PIT) has been mentioned a lot this spring at Baseball HQ, including an appearance in our annual Longshot Caucus, where it was said he could hit .290 with 25 HR and 15 steals this year. He has emerged as a player with formidable skills (87% contact, 117 PX and a .315 xBA in 2007) and considerable upside; all he needs is the opportunity to prove it.
A 69% contact rate will make achieving a high BA an uphill climb for Justin Ruggiano (OF, TAM). He did manage a .292 MLE BA in Triple-A last year, thanks partly to above-average power and speed skills, but mostly to a 39% hit rate. In 2006, in Double-A, with better contact, PX and SX figures, his MLE BA was only .257. He's worth keeping an eye on, but his current BA projection may be a little too optimistic.
Jason Tyner (OF, CLE) has managed to make it onto a major-league roster at some point in seven of the last eight seasons, and he's hit .275 or higher in five of those seven opportunities. In fact, that's his career BA: .275, in 1356 AB. It's an incredibly empty BA, but if you need help in that category, he's not a bad bet to provide it.
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