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MARKET PULSE: Draft trends effects
Matt Beagle - April 4, 2008
In an unscientific survey of forum posters, several 2008 draft trends became evident. Let’s take a look at what remained constant and what changed.
Most witnessed the usual over-hyped rookies being taken too early and ultra-inflation at the beginning of auctions. Remember, most rookies struggle early on, so they provide zero reliability. You get better value trading for them when their manager tires of them representing dead weight on the roster. This usually occurs a few months into the season when injuries force roster moves.
The adrenaline rush as the auction ensues lures even the most veteran manager into a need to “get my anchor at any price.” As a result, the first five to ten guys tend to go for a higher value than projected. The wise man sits on his money, waiting for better values to emerge.
In 2008, however, this phenomenon changed a bit. Apparently after getting burned year after year by overpaying, a few managers seemed quite miserly this year. After unsuccessfully overspending on the highest price talent, the zeal to land that top player waned. Instead, some noted more cautious managers in their league. This new breed kept hoarding money until they realized too late that they had more money to chase a pool devoid of talent. Some even noted auction deflation, as rare in fantasy as in the real economy.
With early season bargains available, this opens the door to a more aggressive Total Control Drafting strategy or a confident Stars and Scrubs approach. If others lack the fortitude to price enforce, you will roster great reliable talent at fair value instead of the usual premium.
It seems quality starting pitchers keep moving higher up the charts. The success of Justin Verlander (RHP, DET), Jake Peavy (RHP, SD), and C.C. Sabathia (LHP, CLE) types have managers selecting pitchers earlier than ever. They also seem to be speculating more on pitchers later. Recent immediate success stories like Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) and Yovani Gallardo (RHP, MIL) contradict the old adage “it takes a few years for a young pitcher to adjust.”
Pitchers are less reliable than hitters. Early in the season remains the worst time to add speculative pitching. The rosters have already been picked dry, so only poorly skilled pitchers remain. Most teams will give the spring training winners a few starts before making changes. You are better off waiting a few weeks until injuries and performance issues create opportunities.
Closers, on the other hand, seemed to fall further in drafts and go for lower auction prices more than ever. Whether resulting from category expansion lessening the importance of Saves, Save punting, or well documented alternative save sources, closers seemed to last longer and come cheaper than ever.
In support of the alternative sources theory, the LIMA-quality middle reliever strategy has now reached the masses. Even shallow leagues witnessed the rostering of Pat Neshek (RHP, MIN), Hideki Okajima (LHP, BOS), and Jon Rauch (RHP, WAS). Quality middle relievers went earlier or for a higher price than ever. At some point soon, the cost of good middlemen may outweigh the benefit provided compared to the suddenly affordable closers. Monitor this trend closely for future trade and 2009 draft targets.
Speed also seemed cheaper than ever. Punting steals and/or talent shifts could explain why high stolen base players seemed to fall. Call it the "Juan Pierre
(OF, LAD) effect." As he lost his value, all others seemed to follow suit. Ichiro Suzuki (OF, SEA) fell in several drafts despite his years of reliable production. Young phenoms like Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN), Felix Pie (OF, CHC) and Eugenio Velez (2B, SF) dropped to the end of many drafts. Remember when these speculative stolen base sources went for double digit dollar values? Joey Gathright
(OF, KC) lasted a long time as a part-timer, but remember his rookie prices?
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