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Head-to-Head Gaming: Draft day category punting
Brent Grooms - March 28, 2008
Category punting has been widely debated and is not a strategy for the risk averse. By giving away a category you must maximize your gains in the remaining categories on draft day or you will be faced with a very difficult challenge. Overcoming a weakness in one area is conceivable but overcoming weaknesses in multiple areas is nearly impossible.
The Head-to-Head (H2H) format presents owners with different challenges than that of the standard rotisserie league. The most glaring difference is that you will battle a new opponent each week and most likely a different roster strategy. With that in mind you want to make certain that you are not giving up a category that is directly tied to another.
First, let's look at the feasibility of punting an offensive category. Steals are a category that could possibly be punted. Steals are not directly tied to any other category. It is also true that most speedsters will hit for a high average, and score a high number of runs. Here are a few players that are likely to be available in the free agent pool of most shallow H2H leagues after draft day that can supply you with great speed. The following numbers are based on 2008 projections.
Player AB Runs SB SX Spring SB =========================================================== Erick Aybar 389 49 19 118 4 Eugenio Velez 290 33 30 145 13 Carlos Gomez 381 51 38 144 10 Nate McLouth 407 68 17 124 3 Asdrubal Cabrera 493 84 17 111 0
As of March 25th playing time for Erick Aybar (SS, LAA) and Eugenio Velez (2B, SF) is still unsettled. But it is safe to use the BaseballHQ projections as a guide to determine AB's. And given the production of both during Spring Training the projected numbers could very well be on the low side of their possible production. Carlos Gomez (CF, MIN) is currently leading the battle for the everyday CF job in Minnesota. So his numbers could see a significant rise as well. While Nate McLouth (CF, PIT) and Asdrubal Cabrera (2B, CLE) may provide less upside than the three players previously mentioned they do provide great speed skills and more job certainty as opening day approaches.
Now let's look at the production categories of HR/RBI/Runs. It is very difficult to punt any of these categories as they are very closely related. If you decide to punt power for example you are most likely going to be weak in not only HR's but also RBI's and Runs. Giving up any of these three categories is not only ill advised but also very difficult to achieve.
What about punting Batting Average? Batting Average is easy enough to punt but to what gain? Punting Batting Average will most likely lead to reduced numbers of Runs as well as SB's. Though the three aren't directly tied to one another there is a close enough relationship between them that it makes punting any of the three difficult to do in a positive manner.
Let's move on to the pitching categories. First let's take a look at punting wins. In a shallow league it's going to be extremely difficult to successfully punt wins. As always the goal is to draft skills and there will be no shortage of skills available in a shallow H2H league. Therefore if you draft the best skills available you will undoubtedly roster wins as well. Another problem with punting wins is the connection between wins and strikeouts. Punting Wins will also result in a deficiency in strikeouts which will weaken your team even further. It's possible to draft middle relievers and closers and obtain a number of wins but this strategy could also leave you vulnerable in the strikeouts category in a weekly match up. Another aspect to consider is the innings pitched requirement for your league. If your league has a low innings pitched requirement you will not need to roster starting pitchers. This will reduce your risk but could hurt your team in the strikeouts category and possibly in wins as well. If you have not done so already review the H2H pitchers strategy article by clicking here.
Strikeouts is a category that is nearly impossible to punt. No matter which pitcher you roster they will most likely contribute something to the strikeouts category. There is really no effective way to punt strikeouts.
The ratio categories of WHIP/ERA are not only connected to each other but will also be connected indirectly to strikeouts and most likely to wins or saves. In order to draft a winning team you must roster the best skills available. By punting WHIP/ERA you are taking a huge risk and could indirectly be punting all five of the pitching categories.
Finally we take a look at punting the saves category. This is probably the most widely used strategy when it comes to category punting. Punting saves is popular for very good reason. It is not only easy to punt saves it also makes the most sense. In shallow leagues there will always be saves available on the waiver wire or in the free agent pool. As stated by Ron Shandler up to 40 percent of saves will come from sources that were not rostered on draft day. Another reason to punt saves is that they are not directly tied to any other category. You could roster middle relievers that would supply you with the same skills that a closer would supply you with at a much cheaper price. The only thing missing on draft day is saves. Let's take a look at relief pitchers who gained 10+ saves during the 2007 season.
AL Pitcher SV =================================== Borowski, Joe 45 Jenks, Bobby 40 Putz, J.J. 40 Rodriguez, Francisco 40 Jones, Todd 38 Nathan, Joe 37 Papelbon, Jonathan 37 Accardo, Jeremy 30 Rivera, Mariano 30 Reyes, Al 26 Embree, Alan 17 Soria, Joakim 17 Gagne, Eric 16 Ray, Chris 16 Street, Huston 16 Wilson, C.J. 12 Wheeler, Dan 11
In the American League there were 17 pitchers that tallied 10+ saves. Of these 17 pitchers 11 started the season in the closer role. Now let's look at the National League.
NL Pitcher SV ================================== Valverde, Jose 47 Cordero, Francisco 44 Hoffman, Trevor 42 Saito, Takashi 39 Cordero, Chad 37 Wagner, Billy 34 Weathers, David 33 Gregg, Kevin 32 Isringhausen, Jason 32 Dempster, Ryan 28 Myers, Brett 21 Fuentes, Brian 20 Wickman, Bob 20 Corpas, Manuel 19 Hennessey, Brad 19 Lidge, Brad 19 Capps, Matt 18 Torres, Salomon 12 Dotel, Octavio 11
In the National League there were 19 pitchers that tallied 10+ saves. Of these 19 pitchers 14 started the season in the closer role. So, after looking at the numbers from the 2007 season we can see that there were 11 pitchers that earned 10+ saves that did not start the year as closer. It is most likely that nine of these pitchers were available in the free agent pool after draft day. This creates ample opportunity to pickup one or more of these pitchers after the draft to fill any void in your pitching staff that was left on draft day.
After reviewing the 10 categories used in the 5x5 H2H format it appears that the best category to punt is saves. Saves are a category that is not tied directly to any other category which makes it more feasible than punting stolen bases. By punting stolen bases you could be hurting yourself in batting average and runs scored. So, if you determine that category punting is the strategy you want to employ on draft day, punt saves and draft highly skilled pitchers. The roles will work themselves out during the season.
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