Free Preview
The following is a free sample of a column from Baseball HQ, one of hundreds readers receive during the course of their subscription. Get a competitive advantage in your league by subscribing today!
Bullpen Buyers Guide: $1 Relievers
Doug Dennis - March 21, 2008
This look at $1 pitchers are for the end game or reserve lists in deep leagues, but these pitchers are not suitable for shallower leagues. You can tailor this exercise for your league by following some simple filters in the Baseball HQ projections: a 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB and 70 BPV or better and a 1.0 HR/9 and 4.20 xERA or less, more than 20 projected innings and then set the dollar value to whatever number you want. Here it is set to $1. The filters provide seven AL pitchers and seven NL pitchers to discuss. Let's start with the AL pitchers:
Name IP BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9 xERA BPV =========== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== === Mujica (CLE) 29 2.5 8.4 3.4 0.6 3.60 105 K.Calero (OAK) 29 4.0 8.4 2.1 0.6 3.86 79 Dohmann (TAM) 29 2.8 7.1 2.6 0.6 3.88 79 MacDougal (CHW) 44 3.7 8.0 2.2 0.6 3.93 78 A.Brown (OAK) 58 4.0 8.2 2.0 0.8 3.91 73 S.Casilla (OAK) 73 4.0 8.0 2.0 0.9 3.60 72 Tr.Miller (TAM) 58 4.2 8.4 2.0 0.9 4.01 70
This column has mentioned Edward Mujica recently, and it is not by accident. The Indians are stacked with high-BPI relievers, starting with Rafael Betancourt and Jensen Lewis, but Mujica is another one who is otherwise lost in the shuffle. But he is a worthwhile reliever to track--excellent across the board in every indicator--walk rate, strikeout rate, home run rate, xERA and BPV. If he makes the team, Mujica is a top LIMA choice.
Oakland actually has three relievers on this list, which cannot be a big surprise to observers who track relievers' BPIs. Kiko Calero is at the top of that trio, but he is a little risky because of his inability to stay on the field. Calero's injuries have taken him off the radar of many players, but his skills remain excellent. Calero is well worth tracking for health and worth acquiring on LIMA staffs if he can pitch, because he will protect your ERA and WHIP.
Andrew Brown was rescued off the trash heap by the A's, but he always had great BPIs in the minors and just needed a shot. After a good 2007, Brown is a nice safe pick. But do not select him expecting Brown to find his way into the closer role. Remember that Alan Embree, the A's left-hander, took the role on an emergency basis to cover the injuries.
Santiago Casilla has been a bridesmaid for a long time and he finally got a shot out of necessity in 2007 because of injuries to Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero. These relievers fit well with Oakland's plan and can add a lot of value by preserving rate categories. Casilla is a worthy reserve pick to plug in, but like with Brown, be careful about selecting him over others who might provide some role upside that Casilla does not provide.
Scott Dohmann came up with the Rockies and is going to continue to try to get a foothold with the Rays. The Rays start 2008 with Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler--so it will be hard for Dohmann to supplant them. Dohmann has to have a great spring, but he can do it, if his BPIs are any indication. Worth tracking--don't select him until you understand his role.
Fellow Ray Travis Miller is a useable left-hander, but limited in role as well. The good news with Miller is that he has a longer track record of success--more like Calero that these others--but without the injury risk. That makes Miller a very safe pick, but one without a lot more upside than just the lefty-specialist role.
That leaves White Sox Mike MacDougal. He is fairly well-known, but he is coming off a disappointing season, and frankly, the 3.7 BB/9 could explode into a larger number in 2008. In the White Sox rebuilt pen, MacDougal falls behind Bobby Jenks, alongside Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton, and will have to work in set-up and get off to a good start to keep from falling in the pecking order. But MacDougal makes a good $1 pick, if you can manage it--pass, however, if his reputation as former Royals closer hikes the price.
The NL relievers are equally useable. Here is that list:
Name IP BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9 xERA BPV =========== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== === Kuo (LAD) 58 4.3 11.0 2.5 0.6 3.92 105 Kinney (STL) 29 4.0 8.1 2.0 0.3 2.68 92 Meloan (LAD) 44 4.7 9.8 2.1 1.0 3.53 83 J.Smith (NYM) 44 4.1 8.0 2.0 0.6 3.81 75 T.Yates (ATL) 58 4.3 9.0 2.1 0.9 4.05 75 Coffey (CIN) 44 2.5 6.6 2.7 0.8 4.15 71 Slaten (ARI) 29 3.4 7.8 2.3 0.9 3.98 70
The National League end-gamers are seven risky relievers. Oft-injured Hong Chih Kuo is a Dodgers swingman who has started a playoff game and now is trying to get healthy long enough to earn a role on the staff, likely as a situational reliever. Kuo, like Calero, is a serious injury risk, but there is obvious upside with the 100+ BPV and 11.0 K/9. Kuo can move up and seize a stronger role with these BPIs, but only if he stays on the field. Monitor his innings and make sure that his walk rate and strikeout rate remain in control, but if those things are present, get him.
Josh Kinney missed 2007 and the Cardinals missed him. Now back, Kinney might be the only reliable arm in the Cardinals pen. The Cardinals got by with a slipping Jason Isringhausen and vagabond veterans Russ Springer and Ryan Franklin, but all three of those relievers are a good bet to perform far worse in 2008 than they did in 2007. Kinney could move up quite quickly if his recovery puts him in the mix early and he performs up to his projections. Kinney is a good speculative reserve round pick, and it is not out of the question that he could vulture some saves in 2008 if all goes well.
The Dodgers are overflowing with relief talent. Tak Saito, Jonathan Broxton and third in line is wild man Jonathan Meloan. Meloan gets rave reviews from scouts, but the 4.7 BB/9 is alarming and could hold him back in 2008. So be careful, as the superlatives that follow Meloan are gushing. Having said that, Meloan has the highest ceiling of any of these $1 relievers. On another team, he would be given chance to compete for the closer job. Meloan makes a good end gamer for a keeper league and for risk-takers.
Joe Smith was solid for the Mets in 2007. Smith is behind Wagner and Heilman for 2008, and the full complement of Mets relief also includes Feliciano as the situational lefty and possibly Duaner Sanchez and Matt Wise. So Smith has his work cut out for him to collect a good role for 2008. Smith can be useful as a safe harbor for ERA and WHIP, and he vultured some wins in 2007, but he might not be more valuable than a reserve pick. Look for his role to get defined; if it is a solid set-up role, he is worth an end game slot.
One intriguing reliever is Atlanta's Tyler Yates. Yates is behind closer Rafael Soriano, who is battling elbow uncertainty, and Peter Moylan, who is battling shoulder uncertainty. Enter Yates, who has the strikeout rate and keeps the ball in the park. Yates has to try to reduce the projected 4.3 BB/9, but if Soriano and Moylan are out of the way, it is easy to see Yates getting saves. Yates has some great upside and is worth the pick. He will not be $1 if either Soriano or Moylan is out of the way before your draft or auction.
Todd Coffey has had multiple chances to seize a prominent role in the Reds pen, which frankly, should not have been difficult, since David Weathers was the closer in 2007 and most of 2006. Coffey, however, will not get that chance in 2008, because the Reds acquired Francisco Cordero and will also have available some leftover pitchers from the group attempting to make the rotation. Coffey supposedly has slimmed down and is ready to try again, but his track record is so inconsistent, that selecting him is something of a reach. Be cautious and make Coffey show you a great spring before rostering him.
Arizona will use Brandon Lyon, then Tony Pena, then Juan Cruz. Doug Slaten has to fit in behind all of them, and he has been battling injury issues. It is very uphill for Slaten to be useful, so be very careful.
So this group is a mixed bag. Selecting the right dollar relievers instead of the wrong ones is often an exercise in futile serendipity, so you have to try to marry the BPIs with the context of the team situation. Yates and Kinney have great situations, Mujica, Kuo and Meloan have great upside. These appear to be the best selections of these groupings today, but all of this can change in the blink of an eye this time of year with relievers at this $1 level and below, so pay close attention to make the best choices you can when the time comes.
Receive weekly Baseball HQ insights via e-mail with a FREE SUBSCRIPTION to Baseball HQ Friday. News analyses, gaming strategies and Ron Shandler's Master Notes, every Friday from January through September, always FREE. Subscribe today!
More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
Rotisserie Gaming: Value of Stolen Bases
Research and Analysis: X's and O's in the XFL
Fanalytics: The LIMA Plan
Power Buyers Guide: LIMA Plan power hitters
Head-to-head Gaming: Draft Strategy - Hitters
Fanalytics: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
Fanalytics: Quint-Inning - The Official Rules
Fanalytics: The great myths of projective accuracy
