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Rotisserie Gaming: Value of Stolen Bases
Craig Neuman - March 14, 2008
Stolen bases can be an enigma to rotisserie players. On the one hand, given the scarcity of the category, one player can single-handedly have a major impact on the standings. On the other hand, many of the speedsters are at or below replacement level in most other offensive categories. And on the third hand, we have the challenge of assembling an offensive roster which (along with a quality pitching staff) will take us to the championship. How do we balance these often competing concerns?
First, the raw stats. In 2007, there were 2918 SB in MLB. The top player (Jose Reyes SS, NYM) had 78 SB, or 2.7%, of the total SB in MLB. There were 19 players who had 31+ SB and those players accounted for 27% of all SB. A total of 91 players had double-digit steals. By comparison, in 2007, there were 5452 HR in MLB. The league leader (Alex Rodriguez 3B, NYY) had 54 HR, or 1%, of the total HR in MLB. There were also 19 players who had 31+ HR, but those players only accounted for 12% of the HR total. And, there were a whopping 201 players who had 10+ HR.
The basic analysis tells us that there are far fewer SB to be had and there are a precious few players who "monopolize" the category. The question is how can we use this information to our advantage? The simple answer is that depends on your league's depth. In deep leagues, ones with about 75-80% player pool penetration, stolen bases (and the players who provide them) are valued quite differently than in shallower leagues.
Shallow Leagues
Roto 101 will tell you that in shallow leagues, rosters are made up of mostly All-Star caliber players. Given that fact, each player must contribute significantly to the overall production of the team. In other words, replacement level for each category is much higher than in deeper leagues.
For example, in a 12x12 mixed league, replacement value for HR and RBI are approximately 15 and 65 respectively. Therefore, any player who falls below those levels, actually is a detriment to his team and, at the same time, puts an extra burden on the other hitters to make up the shortfall. As such, pure speed players like Juan Pierre (CF, LAD), Wily Taveras (CF, COL) and Dave Roberts (OF, SF) have limited value in this format. Now, you might say that some of these players can contribute in average and/or runs, but their value over replacement in those categories declines as the quality of the other players in the player pool increases.
In this regard, if you choose to roster this type of player in this type of league, you must look at the categories within the context of a Stars & Scrubs strategy. A player like Pierre is a star in SB, but a scrub in HR and RBI. This must be counterbalanced with other players who are stars in HR/RBI and scrubs in SB (i.e. Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) or Prince Fielder (1B, MIL)). Remember, though, because HR are more evenly distributed within the player pool, it will require several power-heavy players to offset just one SB specialist.
Deep Leagues
Replacement levels in deeper leagues are much more forgiving. In a 13 team, NL-only league, replacement level equates to approximately 3 HR and 20 RBI. Even the "Judy-est" of players can achieve that RBI total and will, at most, be 3 HR off -- not a large amount. Additionally, when those players produce well in batting average and/or runs (as they often do) their contributions in those categories will have a greater positive value as the deeper pool contains more "marginal" players.
Yet, this doesn't mean that we shouldn't use caution when rostering the Pierres of the world in this format. In the 2008 Graphical Player, John Burnson uses a statistical analysis he refers to as WOW, which stands for "Weight on Winners." It is defined as the percentage of fantasy teams with a particular player that win their leagues. So a WOW of 25 means that 25% of fantasy teams that owned the player won their leagues. In the GP08, WOW is roughly estimated by randomly populating thousands of fantasy leagues, tallying the standings, and noting which players appeared most often on the winning teams. This metric can be very instructive as it relates to valuing SB specialists.
In a recent forum thread on the subject of the value of SB, Forum member junkmailer mentions a new "metric" - VOW. VOW would take the value of the player and divide it by his WOW score (Value Over WOW = VOW). This would allow us to compare individual players on a dollar by dollar basis to help determine which players give teams the biggest "bang for the buck".
And, lo and behold, the top five over-valued players (or, players who provided the LEAST bang for the buck) in the NL for 2007 were speedsters (Pierre, Reyes, Taveras, Theriot, Furcal). It is likely that these players provide excess value (and, therefore, wasted salary) in the form of SB which is not needed in order to win a league.
In this way, one could also look at roster construction in deep leagues in the context of stars and scrubs. You may not have to go as far in overcompensating for the power categories with the other hitters as was the case in shallow leagues. But certainly, you need not focus much attention on SB for the rest of your roster. In fact, if you have a player like Reyes or Pierre on your roster, you may actively want to AVOID players who provide much over replacement level in SB (about 5) as those SB will not be necessary in order for you to compete in the category.
Conclusion
Because stolen bases are not evenly distributed within the player pool, you must carefully orchestrate how you amass them on your team. A Stars and Scrubs approach to the category will work in both shallow and deeper leagues. All else being equal, it is probably safer to avoid drafting a top SB player (i.e. Pierre, Taveras) even if it leaves you short on SB. It should be easier to trade for/acquire a speedster during the season than it will be to try and trade SB for another commodity if the majority of your SB are tied into a single player.
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