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Research and Analysis: X's and O's in the XFL

Alex Patton - March 7, 2008

Who's going to win the eXperts' Fantasy League this year? In no particular order... let's start with Ron.

Listing of Hitters - Shandler- (sorted by position and name).
I Last Pos AB R HR RBI SB OBP $ Sal F +/-
C Iannetta C 208 32 7 37 0 0.336 5 8   -3
J Towles C 259 17 8 59 3 0.329 8 12   -4
R Howard 1B 542 95 48 133 0 0.372 25 10 * 15
D Young 1B 389 48 14 60 1 0.342 12 11   1
D Pedroia 2B 543 86 13 61 8 0.358 19 7 * 12
B Roberts 2B 568 91 13 60 37 0.373 28 21 * 7
G Atkins 3B 571 87 22 106 2 0.373 24 32   -8
T Glaus 3B 405 67 26 73 2 0.357 15 13   2
J Uribe SS 371 42 15 54 2 0.281 7 1   6
R Ankiel OF 276 46 17 63 2 0.279 10 4   6
C Granderson OF 562 108 20 66 17 0.343 23 10 * 13
B Hawpe OF 574 80 26 107 3 0.375 22 11 * 11
J Pierre OF 572 76 1 36 49 0.323 25 21   4
A Rowand OF 517 78 17 66 10 0.324 18 14 * 4
  Team total   6357 953 247 981 136 0.346 241 175   66

Hitters with asterisks after their salaries are frozen players. The rest Ron bought back in November in the XFL auction that is held each year in Phoenix during the Arizona Fall League symposium. The XFL is a bit of an odd duck: a 15-team mixed league, using nine of the standard 5x5 categories and substituting on-base percent for batting average. What makes it odd and thoroughly delightful is that wonkish preparation isn't just discouraged, it's effectively forbidden: owners aren't allowed to bring any lists of their own to the table. Everyone gets a copy of the latest BBHQ depth chart for each league, and that's it.

So, now that we've got that settled, how did Ron do on the hitting side?

Whose stats are these anyway? They aren't last year's, that's for sure, and they can't be Ron's projections, because there's no way he spends $20 on catchers that between them aren't going to get 500 AB.

They are Peter Kreutzer's projections in this year's edition of Patton $ On Disk, and they are the ones I'll be using in this article; because, well, you've already bought Ron's projections.

Under $ is what Peter's projected stats are worth in my 5x5 AL formulas.

And not mixed league, for the following reason.

No one has ever been able to figure out a decent mixed-league formula.

Yep. It's true. In more than 20 years, it hasn't happened. Mixed league pricing is completely different. The simple, linear calculations that I use for my AL and NL-only pricing in 4x4 and 5x5 leagues don't work for mixed leagues. The more sophisticated math that is needed is completely beyond me. I can tell at glance it's beyond others who, compared to me, are whizzes in math, by simply looking at the numbers that they generate.

Flip open your copy of the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008. I know you have it, and I know it's getting kind of dog-eared by now, because it's loaded with good stuff (best is John Sickels' Top 100 Prospects). Turn to page 41.

Mixed-league price 5x5 for David Wright: $32. NL 4x4 price for David Wright: $37.

They've got it totally turned around.

The person who first made me aware of this is my partner in the XFL, Peter Kreutzer.

Six years ago, when Ron cooked up the idea for the XFL, I declined the invitation to join, on the grounds that I didn't know one single thing about mixed leagues, and Peter accepted. Since I was attending the symposium, I offered to track money for Peter at the draft, if he thought that would be a help. Peter informed me that one of the rules of this league, in addition to the no-list rule, was that only one person could sit at the table. Good news, as far as I was concerned, because there was an AFL game that night.

The draft was scheduled for Saturday evening and on Saturday morning Peter happened to check his airline ticket. It said his flight back to New York was at 6 PM. On Saturday.

That didn't leave me a whole lot of time to prepare. Peter said it's okay, no one else has prepared. I said, at least give me your lists. That's when I learned lists weren't allowed.

Okay, I said, give me the names of players you like and I'll try to buy a few, so at least you have a team you like when it finishes last.

He said, I've never liked a team that finishes last.

Peter, I said, just tell me who to buy.

He said, Buy A-Rod.

Excuse me?

Buy A-Rod.

He said A-Rod was the best player, he was going to be so much better than the pretty good players, who were going to be only a little better than the $1 players (the XFL had only 12 teams in its first season), that I should just buy him.

Just buy him?

Just buy him.

Are you sure?

He was sure. Him and Vlad.

Oh. Vlad too? I was supposed to buy them both? For how much, pray tell?

Whatever it takes, said Peter.

Vlad came up first and he went quickly to $40. He went quickly to $50. He went to $51, and I said $52. The same obnoxious person (the rest of the room was now sitting there in stunned silence) said $53. I said $54.

He said $55.

I said $56. He was mine.

The room burst into derisive applause.

After a long discussion, I had a pretty good handle on Peter's thinking and I knew he was right. I saw him smiling on his airplane.

Keep taunting folks… you'll see.

Sadly, the same obnoxious fellow (Perry Van Hook) quickly took A-Rod to $56. He dared me to say $57. I chickened out.

But thereafter it was Perry who chickened out. The next highest price he paid for anyone was $26. I bought Barry for $49 and Abreu for $35 – all three of these before the end of the second round – whereupon someone suggested that I leave the room and come back in a couple of hours.

Instead I kicked back, crossed off names on the depth chart as players were nominated, and wrote down the prices next to the names when the bidding stopped.

Luis Castillo $23

Jeff Kent $33

Sammy Sosa $39

Mike Sweeney $26

Aaron Boone $21

Troy Glaus $32

Eventually I was back in the game – getting Mike Lowell for $12, Preston Wilson for $14 – and spent my last $1 for Frank Thomas.

I'm reminded, as I look at the rosters, that the draft didn't start out so hot for me. Doug Dennis opened the auction by nominating Francisco Rodriguez, I said $2, and in a matter of seconds learned that everybody else in the room realized there was no place for middle relievers, not even K-Rod, in 5x5. The first player in the first draft went to me.

I had my revenge by buying all starters from then on, skipping closers, as we had originally planned. The Patton/Kreutzer combo (Peter handled the supplemental reserve draft in March and did a nice job) stumbled a bit out of the gate, moved into first in May and was never seriously threatened.

I digress. Shall we look at another set of projections?

Listing of Hitters - Moyer- (sorted by position and name).        
I Last Pos AB R HR RBI SB OBP $ Sal F +/-
R Martin C 442 76 12 69 15 0.372 20 7 * 13
G Soto C 362 52 12 68 0 0.338 10 7   3
R Garko 1B 524 77 22 86 0 0.347 19 4   15
A Pujols 1B 568 117 41 120 8 0.426 36 58   -22
L Castillo 2B 521 82 3 39 18 0.366 18 9   9
R Weeks 2B 467 89 15 46 24 0.345 17 10 * 7
J Fields 3B 351 50 14 54 11 0.322 12 4 * 8
A Gordon 3B 574 76 21 72 17 0.318 18 4 * 14
D Jeter SS 624 106 15 78 19 0.382 30 33   -3
M Alou OF 382 59 19 65 3 0.379 19 5   14
C Crisp OF 522 78 10 56 22 0.336 19 9   10
J Damon OF 550 102 14 68 22 0.364 24 21   3
M Kemp OF 508 92 23 86 15 0.347 27 7 * 20
H Pence OF 562 81 27 86 14 0.343 25 4 * 21
  Team total   6957 1137 248 993 188 0.358 294 182   112

These are the hitters that Steve Moyer froze (*) and bought in the auction last November. The number in the $ column is what Peter Kreutzer's stat projection is worth in 5x5 AL-only leagues, according to my calculations. The $ value can also be calculated by the NL-only formula; because league differences aren't that great anymore (when the NL pitchers' hitting stats are removed), the values don't change much at all. In either set of formulas, the prices add up to standard AL 12-team or NL 13-team budgets; thus they total much higher for leagues that have both AL and NL players.

What jumps out, of course, is the price for Pujols.

Insane? I certainly don't think so. Steve clearly has a better hitting team than Ron and the reason can be spelled out in six letters.

My clunky formulas say Pujols will earn a mere $36 this year, and this is correct: in non-mixed leagues where the $1 player is such a sorry specimen. But when you're in a league where you can buy Ryan Garko for $4 and Moises Alou for $5, don't you have some extra cash to spend on Albert?

When you've got Russell Martin and Hunter Pence locked up for $11, you for sure do.

Listing of Hitters - Dennis- (sorted by position and name).        
I Last Pos AB R HR RBI SB OBP $ Sal F +/-
V Martinez C 549 76 20 94 0 0.379 21 27   -6
J Posada C 434 67 19 76 2 0.386 17 21 * -4
A Gonzalez 1B 532 78 23 78 0 0.345 18 11 * 7
J Morneau 1B 585 85 30 112 1 0.344 22 13 * 9
R Cano 2B 564 81 17 82 3 0.339 20 14 * 6
D Uggla 2B 627 110 29 90 4 0.323 20 7 * 13
E Encarnaci 3B 512 69 18 82 8 0.329 17 10 * 7
C Guillen SS 475 77 15 69 12 0.375 22 19   3
J Bay OF 555 94 29 96 12 0.366 25 22   3
P Burrell OF 475 75 29 98 0 0.397 18 21 * -3
M Cameron OF 389 61 15 54 15 0.339 15 3   12
M Diaz OF 311 37 8 36 4 0.349 12 3   9
A Dunn OF 546 103 40 100 7 0.373 22 25 * -3
F Thomas DH 360 52 25 77 0 0.368 15 5   10
  Team total   6914 1065 317 1144 68 0.358 264 201   63

This is the defending champ, BBHQ's own Doug Dennis.

Does it make sense to freeze Jorge Posada at $21 and Adam Dunn at $25?

Absolutely! Somewhat belatedly, my fellow XFLers are cottoning to the fact that prices is mixed leaguers are not linear. When you can buy Mike Cameron and Mike Diaz in the end game for $3 each, what does that tell you about the front game and the mid game?

Getting ready to write this article, I sent everyone a questionnaire. To my question, who was your best buy? Dennis responded, “Maybe Victor Martinez. Overpriced, but you need stud catchers in this league – at least I am convinced of that.”

Not just you, Doug. Look at what Ron spent for Towles and Iannetta. Look at what Steve spent for Soto. The reason is math that is within my grasp: when 15 teams need 30 catchers, one of them is going to get stuck with Gregg Zaun.

Listing of Hitters - Drooker- (sorted by position and name).        
I Last Pos AB R HR RBI SB OBP $ Sal F +/-
B Molina C 405 38 16 63 0 0.311 12 6   6
J Varitek C 386 53 16 59 1 0.354 10 8   2
M Teixeira 1B 573 96 34 116 2 0.378 26 25 * 1
I Kinsler 2B 478 88 19 70 18 0.344 21 7 * 14
M Cabrera 3B 568 99 30 112 4 0.403 31 25 * 6
C Jones 3B 436 89 26 88 5 0.417 25 20   5
K Greene SS 511 69 20 78 5 0.297 13 14   -1
E Byrnes OF 545 80 19 69 28 0.319 22 14 * 8
J Francoeur OF 623 84 25 102 4 0.315 21 10 * 11
J Hamilton OF 343 60 22 54 3 0.338 14 4 * 10
A Kearns OF 482 74 19 72 4 0.344 14 17   -3
N Markakis OF 539 104 18 89 9 0.364 24 7 * 17
L Milledge OF 389 55 10 49 15 0.34 16 3   13
B Upton OF 448 73 17 64 23 0.369 22 13 * 9
  Team total   6726 1062 291 1085 121 0.351 271 173   98

Don Drooker's hitting roster. His assessment is interesting.

On the question How would you rank your freeze list: “1) The Dux freeze list was definitely in the top third. The team had the most offensive points last year and the core is still there...Teixeira, Upton, Cabrera, Kinsler, Byrnes, Francouer, Markakis, etc. - also two good SP's and a cheap closer.”

Starting pitchers? Closers? Subject for another time.

On the hitting side, he was very disciplined: no Albert Pujols for him.

Everyone pays attention to catcher scarcity. We've seen that. So how the devil did he get Bengie Molina for $6 and Jason Varitek for $8?

In a year in which he calculated the inflation to be “20-25% for hitting, slightly less for pitching,” how did he get Khalil Greene for $14?

I agree with Peter's OPS projection for Khalil Greene, but man, those power numbers are tame.

Even if Chipper does get only 436 AB, he was a hell of a buy, hell of a buy. In mixed leagues – especially ones with 17-round reserve drafts and unlimited ups and downs all season – you can always plug someone else in.

Lots of people think durability counts even more in mixed leagues. They have it all wrong.

Here's a good example.

Listing of Hitters - Ambrosius- (sorted by position and name).        
I Last Pos AB R HR RBI SB OBP $ Sal F +/-
J Estrada C 291 27 6 39 0 0.306 7 4   3
K Suzuki C 264 37 6 41 0 0.321 5 4 * 1
C Delgado 1B 547 83 33 109 1 0.352 21 15   6
J Kent 2B 475 78 21 82 3 0.369 19