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Power Buyers Guide: LIMA Plan power hitters
Joshua Randall - February 22, 2008
The LIMA plan encourages us to spend most of our budget on batters, and it sets the following filters:
- Contact rate (ct%) of at least 80%
- Walk rate (bb%) of at least 10%
- PX or SX of at least 100
For our power needs, we suggest imposing two additional filters:
- Eye (BB/K) of at least 0.50
- PX of at least 120 (superseding the previous PX filter)
While bb%, ct%, and Eye are primarily used as leading indicators for BA, they are also tied to power, especially in the case of Eye. (See page 16 of the 2008 Baseball Forecaster.)
LIMA Plan Power Hitters
Here are the players projected to meet those criteria in 2008 (minimum 100 AB), along with their Reliability scores and associated Tier in the Portfolio 3 plan.
Player AB HR bb% ct% Eye PX Rel Tier ================ === == === === ==== === === ==== Ortiz, David 512 37 16% 80% 0.97 175 96 1 Cabrera, Miguel 572 36 11% 82% 0.70 151 83 1 Beltran, Carlos 508 32 12% 81% 0.71 148 19 3 Pujols, Albert 552 39 14% 90% 1.68 147 74 1 Berkman, Lance 519 34 15% 80% 0.87 146 38 3 Jones, Chipper 466 26 14% 84% 1.05 145 52 2 Wright, David 568 31 12% 81% 0.73 144 94 1 Konerko, Paul 542 33 11% 82% 0.71 133 85 1 Stairs, Matt 332 15 11% 80% 0.62 133 7 3 Johnson, Nick 257 11 16% 80% 0.92 131 5 3 Buck, Travis 399 11 10% 80% 0.54 129 0 3 Bradley, Milton 388 21 12% 83% 0.80 128 3 3 Rasmus, Colby 242 11 11% 82% 0.67 127 0 3 Griffey Jr., Ken 449 24 12% 81% 0.70 126 18 3 Votto, Joey 333 14 11% 80% 0.60 121 0 3 Posada, Jorge 442 18 13% 80% 0.76 120 47 2
David Ortiz's (DH, BOS) PX was between 187-189 in four of the past five seasons -- the one season it wasn't in that range was 2006 when Ortiz delivered a 200 PX. That's a remarkable level of consistency. However, his hr/f, which had been in the 20%-22% range from 2003-2005, spiked to 26% in 2006 before falling to 17% in 2007. Research suggests that Ortiz's hr/f should bounce back (though not to 2006's level); given his steady 45%+ FB% over the past four seasons, that bodes well for another run at 40 HR.
Miguel Cabrera (3B, DET) had mixed results in 2007. His bb%, ct%, and Eye all improved from the first to the second half (from 10%-76%-0.44 to 14%-81%-0.83), but his FB% dropped (from 42% to 37%), as did his LD% (23% to 19%). Cabrera needs to keep his FB% near 40% or better, while maintaining his hr/f in the 18%-20% range, in order to meet his projected 36 HR. The move from Dolphins Stadium (-15% RHB HR) to Comerica Park (-8% RHB HR) will help, but Cabrera's skills are more important than his home venue.
As noted in the February 17, 2008, NL Market Watch, Carlos Beltran (CF, NYM) has already put us on notice that injuries may curtail his play during Spring Training. In addition, Beltran's BPIs show that he salvaged last season by swinging for the fences: ct% (83% to 77%) and Eye (0.73 to 0.54) dropped from 1H07 to 2H07 while his FB% rose slightly (42% to 44%) and his hr/f exploded (from 10% to 25%). The result was 23 HR in 272 AB in the second half, but anyone paying for that level of production across both halves of 2008 is going to be sadly disappointed. Heed Beltran's 19 Rel and let someone else take on the risk he represents.
Many of Albert Pujols' (1B, STL) indicators fell in 2007, particularly his FB% (to 39%), PX (to 133), and hr/f (to 16%). Much like Ortiz, Pujols had an outstanding 2006 (45% FB%, 49 HR in 535 AB) that made 2007 appear far worse by contrast (32 HR in 565 AB). The February 9, 2008, NL Market Watch noted that Pujols "decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow because it would have caused him to miss most if not all of the 2008 season." The risk is that by playing through the pain, Pujols will have a sub-par (for him) 2008. His projected 39 HR seems optimistic; pay for closer to 30 HR to avoid disappointment.
Lance Berkman (1B/RF, HOU) struggled in 1H07, hitting only 11 HR in 261 AB with an 89 PX. But he completely turned things around in 2H07, hitting 23 HR in 300 AB with a 183 PX. We're projecting a pullback in PX to a level closer to what Berkman delivered from 2003-2005, when he hit 25, 30, and 24 HR. However, Berkman's hr/f is trending up (15%-17%-19%-25%-21%), so if he can keep his FB% near 40%, he should be able to meet his projected 34 HR.
Even at age 36, Chipper Jones (3B, ATL) continues to show outstanding power skills. There are some warning signs, however. A spiky FB% (39%-35%-40%-37% last four years) and a declining hr/f (21%-20%-19%-18%) are the most worrisome trends; Jones also saw declines in FB%, PX, and hr/f from the first to the second half of 2007. Finally, as pointed out in the 2008 Forecaster, Jones defied his age and injury history by accumulating over 500 AB last season. Add this all up and it looks like Jones' projected 26 HR in 466 AB is the upper limit of what you should pay for.
David Wright's (3B, NYM) poor April 2007 (.244, 0 HR) has been well documented, as has his remarkable May through September (BA .294 or better all five months; 30 total HR). Wright's BPIs show a dramatic shift from 1H07 to 2H07: bb%, ct%, and Eye all rose (the latter dramatically, from 0.59 to 1.10); FB% declined (41% to 35%) but LD% improved (20% to 26%), and PX and hr/f were both up slightly. Wright has had some inconsistencies in his FB% and hr/f since entering the league, alternating years of FB% > 40% with hr/f < 15% and vice versa. If he can put a 40%+ FB% together with a 15%+ hr/f, and maintain that elite Eye from last seasons' second half, Wright could exceed his projections.
Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) has two clear, and contrary, power trends: his FB% is on a five year ascent, from 38% in 2003 to 45% in 2007, while his hr/f is on a four year decline, from 22% in 2004 to 16% in 2007. The combination has resulted in a steady PX in the 139-148 range, but Konerko's HR output fell from 40+ ('04 & '05) to 35 ('06) to 31 ('07). The Forecaster's recommendation is sound: "Pay for 30 HR, [and] you might get a bonus 5 or 10 more."
Matt Stairs (1B/LF, TOR) had a great 2007: .289 and 21 HR in 357 AB. But stairs is 40 years old, and his FB% (44% to 41%) and hr/f (20% to 14%) both fell over the course of the season. His PX had been in the 111-117 range from 2004-2006 before leaping to 166 in 2007. There is little chance for Stairs to repeat; even our projected 133 PX with 15 HR in 332 AB may be overly optimistic. Stairs is fine as an endgame Tier 3 flyer, but can't be counted on.
It's difficult to get a read on Nick Johnson (1B, WAS) given how much time he's missed due to injury -- including all of 2007. For what it's worth, he does have rising trends in FB%, PX, and hr/f. However, Johnson is likely to struggle to start the 2008 season. He makes a better in-season acquisition than someone to roster at the draft or auction.
Travis Buck (RF, OAK) performed pretty well in limited play (285 AB) with the Athletics last season. He also spent 59 days on the DL, and is recovering from offseason right elbow surgery; Buck's 0 Rel is well deserved. He improved his bb%, Eye, PX, and Slg from 2006 (Double-A MLEs) to 2007, but given the small samples, it's hard to know what to expect from him in 2008.
Milton Bradley (LF, TEX) has missed a huge amount of time due to injury: he's had 303 DL days since 2003. Yet through it all, Bradley has maintained decent to good BPIs, which we say is the mark of a good player. In 2007, Bradley saw a huge spike in FB%, to 45% (from 32%-34% from '03-'06), and PX, to 141. Of course, he achieved this feat over the span of only 209 AB, so it may not be repeatable. The move to TEX should help Bradley when he bats left-handed (+24% LHB HR), but what will really help is if he's fully recovered from his torn ACL. Bradley is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.
Colby Rasmus (CF, STL) spent 2007 at Double-A where he delivered MLEs of .239/.323/.456 with 22 HR and a 136 PX in 472 AB. Rasmus rates as the Cardinals' top prospect, according to BHQ's Organization Report, with a Potential Rating of 9B (elite player with 70% probability of reaching his potential.) This Spring, Rasmus is a non-roster invitee, competing for a reserve OF slot with Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, Brian Barton, and others. The Cardinals have Rick Ankiel penciled in as their starting CF, but Ankiel is far from a sure thing, so Rasmus could wind up making good on his projected 242 AB and 11 HR. Rasmus is a prime target in keeper leagues and a reasonable flier in others.
2007 was a tale of two halves for Ken Griffey Jr. (RF, CIN): he hit 21 HR on the strength of a 159 PX and 20% hr/f in the first half, but just 9 HR with a 99 PX and 8% hr/f in the second half. Though he avoided the DL in 2007, Griffey appears to have succumbed to nagging injuries and the fatigue of a long season -- and at 38 years old, odds are something similar will happen in 2008. Griffey's 49% FB% in 2007 was high, and reversed a three year declining trend (47%-44%-42%), but his hr/f was in the 18%-20% range from 2004-2006, so some of what he accomplished in 1H07 can be repeated.
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) hit 26 HR in 580 AB in 2007 (including MLEs) with a 46% FB% rate and 12% hr/f, both of which are above average. Votto, who ranks as the Reds' third best prospect according to our Organization Report, will fight for the starting 1B-man role during Spring Training. If he wins it, Votto will benefit from one of the most favorable home parks in the Majors, which improves LHB HR by a whopping 28%. Heed Votto's Rel 0, but don't be afraid to take a chance on him -- he could easily hit 20 HR with full-time AB.
Jorge Posada (CA, NYY) is the only catcher to meet our LIMA power filters. Much of Posada's $24 (5x5) 2007 season was driven by his .338 BA, which in turn can be traced to an inflated 39% H%. However, Posada's power skills remain strong, with 35%+ FB% and 130+ PX in four of the past five years. Even with a more normal H%, Posada's BA shouldn't hurt you, and his steady power makes 15+ HR almost a certainty, given enough AB. Just bear in mind his age (36) and the demands of his position, and don't overbid.
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