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Head-to-Head Gaming: Draft Strategy - Hitters
Brent Grooms - February 15, 2008
As draft day draws closer, it's time to develop a strategy for your Head to Head (H2H) draft. In this article we will focus on offensive strategy with an article on pitching strategy to follow. For the purpose of this article we will take a look at the most popular format in H2H gaming. This format uses the 5x5 system, with category scoring and 12 teams.
The H2H format presents challenges that are not faced in the standard Rotisserie league. The greatest difference is that the H2H format is based on weekly matchups. This changes the mental aspect of the game from that of pacing yourself for a long race to 23 weekly sprints that lead to the playoffs.
In order to give yourself the opportunity to win each and every week your offense must be built to be competitive in at least four of the five categories. Instead of trying to dominate two or three categories you should look to draft a team of well rounded players who will contribute in all categories.
Let's look at an example of how this could unfold during any given week. If you draft a team that you consider to be dominant in the power categories, you are counting on winning the home runs, runs, and rbi categories. But this team will most likely struggle at times against a well balanced team. It's true that ratio categories such as batting average will be harder to predict on a weekly basis than counting stat categories. But you will be much better positioned to be competitive each week if you draft balance. For example, what happens the week or weeks that your power heavy team cannot find its power stroke? Overcoming a five to zero loss in the offensive categories is difficult. If you are going to draft with your focus on power hitters make sure to find power hitters that can supply you with speed or batting average as well.
In order to fill your roster with the types of players that will lead you to a championship you should target the following skill sets. Hitters with a Power Index Rating (PX) of 100 or higher are the primary targets, as well as hitters owning a Speed Index Rating (SX) of 100 or better. In order to draft the correct balance on offense attempt to draft as many hitters as possible that own both a 100+ PX, and a 100+ SX. This will lessen the probability of being deficient in either category. Two more indicators to use are Contact Percentage (CT%), and Expected Batting Average (xBA). By using CT% and xBA you are looking at a hitter's true skill which gives you an advantage over those who will be using batting average as an indicator. It also protects you from drafting a hitter with recent batting averages that were driven by unsustainable hit rates (H%). Hitters that meet both of the benchmarks for CT%, and xBA will also have higher On Base Averages (OBA). This will likely lead to more runs scored and more stolen bases.
H2H Hitter Filters PX SX CT% xBA === === === ==== 100 100 80 .270
Two of the players that meet the requirements of all four filters and should be taken early in the draft are David Wright (3B, NYM), and Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI) . Another indicator that makes these two hitters even stronger candidates are high Reliability scores (REL). Players with REL scores of 70+ are players that have a solid track record. A REL score of 70+ combined with the skill set listed in the above table creates a solid list of players to roster early in your draft. A few more players that meet these requirements and should be taken late in the draft are: Felix Pie (CF, CHC), Matt Kemp (RF, LA) , and Travis Buck (RF, OAK) . These players own great skill sets but they also own low REL scores and should not represent the core of your team or be rostered early.
Perhaps these parameters are too strict or not strict enough for your needs. If this happens to be the case the HQValuator engine allows you to enter your own parameters to create your perfect draft list.
Another aspect of player skills you should monitor are hitters with rising PX trends as well as rising Fly ball Percentages (FB%). These indicators when coupled often foreshadow a coming PX breakout and make excellent targets on draft day. Just remember to dig deeper than recent numbers and projections to find skills that are lying below the surface stats.
Now lets discuss the profiles of hitters to avoid. A hitter with a recent trend of decreasing PX and CT% often hint at batting average downside as well as fewer home runs. A rising ground ball percentage (GB%) will also indicate a power hitter who is in decline. More groundballs lead to lower home run totals. Also, avoid hitters with a CT% of less than 70. If you choose to roster hitters below this benchmark you are taking a risk of rostering significant batting average downside. This could also lead to a lower OBA and a decrease in Stolen Base Opportunity (SBO).
Now let's look at in-draft strategy. The most successful strategy to employ is to draft hitting in the early rounds and try to stack your lineup with as many highly skilled and reliable hitters as possible. (The parameters of which were discussed earlier in the article.) Do not be pulled into a run on pitchers or any other position. This is a shallow league format and there will always be skilled players available in each round. The key to winning is to draft skilled hitters regardless of what position they are drafted from. Do not be overly concerned with positional scarcity. In the basic H2H format you will not be drafting a starter at corner infield, middle infield or a second catcher. This will eliminate much of the problem presented by positional scarcity.
If you approach your H2H draft using the information in this article and the upcoming article on pitching strategy you will be well on your way to a successful season and most likely a league title.
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