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BULLPEN BUYES GUIDE: Hidden values down the stretch
Doug Dennis - August 17, 2007
C.J. Wilson, Texas
The Rangers' Akinori Otsuka is often mentioned as the Rangers best reliever, but not so. Joaquin Benoit has a 118 Base Performance Value (BPV), C.J. Wilson has a 103 BPV, while Otsuka has a 83 BPV. Wilson and Otsuka are extreme groundball pitchers--Wilson has a 25% flyball rate, Otsuka has a 25% flyball rate as well. Benoit has a more standard 39% flyball rate, but a better strikeout rate and K/BB than either of them, and a better walk rate than Wilson by a wide margin. All three have an actual ERA in the 2.00's--that is some feat in that park.
Wilson appears to be solidifying his hold on the closer's role. The problem is, Wilson's history, particularly with split values suited to specialty work, may be his undoing. If speculating for short-term saves, Wilson is your man. He could lose the job in less than a week, but so far, he has been the Rangers closer. If you can roster Joaquin Benoit, he would be a decent reliever to handcuff to Wilson, but make sure that you can afford two Texas relievers on your ERA/WHIP.
Matt Guerrier, Minnesota
Continuing the search for safe ERA/WHIP relievers, Matt Guerrier is a nice right-hander with a 6.3 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 0.4 HR/9, 87 BPV and 3.58 xERA in support of a 1.71 actual ERA. The sparkling actual ERA has a lot to do with his 48% groundball rate. Guerrier is not in a role that leads to vulture win chances, but his ERA/WHIP potential remains a solid bet over the next six weeks.
Andrew Brown, Oakland
Well-traveled Brown has done nothing but put up huge base performance indicators (BPIs) throughout his minor league career. Now with Oakland, he will get a chance. Only 21 innings, but the 10.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 give him a ridiculous 6.3 K/BB and 197 BPV (and 2.34 xERA in support of his 1.69 actual ERA). Brown could be a find and is worth a flyer as a middle reliever who should protect ERA and WHIP.
Chad Qualls, Houston
Qualls is well-known as the third reliever in the Astros pen who is now #2 with Dan Wheeler moving to Tampa Bay. Since then, Qualls has stepped up his game and now has his BPV over 100 with a well-deserved 3.11 xERA supporting a 3.32 actual ERA. Qualls has been even better in recent weeks and notably for folks seeking wins are his 6 relief wins and 3 vulture saves. Qualls could be more valuable than just about any non-closer in the NL down the stretch.
Damaso Marte, Pittsburgh
Marte is on this list for one reason and one reason only -- as a safe harbor to protect ERA/WHIP numbers. Marte is not asked to win or save games, but his ERA and WHIP are unbelievable and his BPIs support them. Consider guys like Marte if you could stand to gain some points in ERA or WHIP down the stretch and can afford to allow for zeroes in wins and saves.
Scott Downs, Toronto
Downs has really found a niche as a lefty reliever for the Blue Jays. Downs has a 62% groundball rate on top of decent BPIs: 9.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 101 BPV and 3.02 xERA. Downs is a converted starter who won't get wins or saves, but makes for a nice AL safe haven for ERA/WHIP.
Joba Chamberlain, New York (AL)
As a starter, he has gone from high Single-A through Triple-A and dominated at every stop, with 135 strikeouts against 27 walks in just 88.1 innings. That is a 13.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.1 K/BB as a starter. The K/9 could be even higher as a reliever, if he can make that adjustment from starting to relief. While there may be an adjustment period, it is hard to imagine that it will last very long, as this guy has drawn favorable comparisons with Joel Zumaya and Felix Rodriguez. The Yankees need to catch lightning in a bottle here to shore up a set-up corps of Luis Vizcaino, Brian Bruney, Kyle Farnsworth -- all of whom have had trouble at various times throwing strikes. Chamberlain sure does not appear to have that problem.
Danys Baez, Baltimore
Baez and his 5.00+ ERA is the closer over Walker and Bradford. His ERA may be deceptive. Since mid-July, Baez has 9.1 innings, allowed 5 hits, 3 walks and 2 earned runs against 7 strikeouts. That is too small a data set to make a judgment, but maybe Baez can go on a little run for the next month or so in the closer role getting nice clean save chances from Walker and Bradford. Baez is not a long-term guy, but for a few weeks, he could be quite valuable.
Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay
Wheeler had excellent BPIs and results for Houston for nearly three years. His results suffered this season with one bad month (after converting 11 saves) and the Astros predictably gave up on him. Tampa Bay has a closer here for 2008, and that is how owners in keeper leagues should treat Wheeler -- set-up for 2007 and potential closer for 2008. The BPIs are still there -- the results will return.
Mike MacDougal, Chicago (AL)
MacDougal returned from the disabled list and so far has allowed 5 hits and 3 earned runs in just 6.2 innings. But the good news is the 6 strikeouts and no walks in that same span. MacDougal's value is almost always gauged in terms of his ability to throw strikes, so despite the rocky start, he could do very well in set-up down the stretch for a team that desperately needs the pen help. MacDougal is a guarded buy at this point for those looking for a quality set-up man who could vulture a few wins down the stretch.
Fernando Rodney, Detroit
Rodney was activated off the disabled list on August 4 and the Tigers desperately need him to be the same Rodney he was in 2006. Command was an issue before his DL stint and that is what owners are going to have to examine closely -- his walk rate -- to gauge how effective he can be. The Tigers will give him every chance to provide quality innings.
Scott Linebrink, Milwaukee
This is the one trade deadline bullpen move that made some sense. Milwaukee is driving hard for a playoff appearance and the three-man punch of Cordero, Linebrink and Turnbow can really help this team get there. Linebrink is an expensive rental, but it is nice to see the Brewers making that kind of commitment to winning this year. Plus, if he signs elsewhere, the Brewers should get a nice compensation pick or two from the deal. Expect a potential uptick in ERA for moving out of San Diego, but the truth is, pitching in the NL Central is easier and he could go on a long string of zeroes helping the Brewers hold off the Cubs.
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