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POWER BUYERS GUIDE: Power for real?
Joshua Randall - July 27, 2007
The following is a group of players for whom it is not readily apparent whether their current power output is for real or a fluke. We pass judgment...
Alex Gonzalez (SS, CIN) is in the midst of a comeback season. At age 30, he's hit 13 HR in 315 AB with a decent .444 Slg and 128 PX. Gonzalez's other BPIs (bb%, ct%, Eye) are in line with historical levels, suggesting that his power resurgence is not a fluke. A 44% FB%, which nearly matches his level in three of the past four seasons, confirms that supposition. We project Gonzalez for another 8 HR in 224 AB -- not bad from the typically light-hitting SS position.
Ken Griffey Jr. (RF, CIN) is defying the odds, not only by staying healthy, but also by reversing declines in his FB% and PX. From 2004-2006, Griffey's FB rate went 47%-44%-43% while his PX went 160-168-130. Contrast that with Griffey's current 50% FB% and 153 PX, and it looks like Griffey has drunk from the fountain of youth. However, over the past 31 days, Griffey has hit just 5 HR (of his 24 total) with a 132 PX -- a power level about equal to what we project balance-of-season (138 PX, 12 HR in 169 AB).
Corey Hart (RF, MIL) continues to build on his strong second half of 2006, when he had a 45% FB rate and a 129 PX. Halfway through 2007, Hart's 47% FB% and 137 PX are a solid continuation. Hart has also improved his bb% (from 7% to 8%), ct% (75% to 81%), and Eye (0.32 to 0.46) since last season. Hart deserves his place on the Top Skills list.
Mike Lowell (3B, BOS) has been on and off the Top Skills list a couple of times; he's currently on, with 14 HR in 315 AB. Many people don't think of Lowell as a power hitter, but remember he hit 32 HR (in 492 AB) with a 147 PX as recently as 2003 -- and that was while with FLA, a tougher home for RHB power than BOS. Lowell is hitting a bunch of FB (49%) with plus power (128 PX), comparable to his levels in 2002 (49% FB%, 126 PX) and 2004 (49% FB%, 124 PX). Lowell's history gives reason for optimism that his strong first half will continue.
We keep thinking that Aramis Ramirez (3B, CHC) will break the 40 HR barrier -- he came close last year with 38, but has only 16 HR so far this season and is projected to finish with 28. Last year, Ramirez raised his FB rate to 47%, reversing three years of decline (46%-43%-41%); he also put up a 141 PX, a reasonable follow-up to three years of increase (116-139-153). Thus far in 2007, Ramirez's 41% FB rate has dropped back to its 2004-2005 level, and his 141 PX makes it look like 2006 was an anomaly and that a PX around 140 represents normal for Ramirez. We project more of the same for the rest of the year: 12 HR in 208 AB on a 133 PX. That's a bankable level; if you expect (or paid for) more, you're going to be disappointed.
A scan of Alex Rios' (RF, TOR) G/L/F trends over the past three years is enticing -- focusing just on his FB%, we see 23%-31%-42% from 2004-2006, and now 48% thus far in 2007. His PX trended up over the same period: 68-90-134 and 143 today. Rios' 8% bb% is the continuation of a minor growth trend (6%-6%-7%), and his 85% ct% and 0.56 Eye are the best they've been at the Major League level; Rios is seeing the ball better and putting it into play more often. When almost half your balls in play are hit in the air, that's a recipe for HR production, and Rios has not disappointed with 19 in 390 AB. His current FB%/PX combo may be over his head in the long run, but our projected 128 PX and 8 HR over the balance-of-season looks doable.
Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI) was a pre-season BHQ favorite on the basis of some power (and BA) upside, and in early May he was hitting .314 with 9 HR, a .614 Slg, and a 168 PX. Rollins is now batting just .287 with 18 HR and a .513 Slg. His PX is now 127, still an improvement from PXs of 96-85-111 ('04-'06); it's due mostly to a lot more FB (46%) than normal (maximum 37% over the past five seasons). Rollins has been less discerning at the plate -- his 0.45 Eye is down considerably from 0.66-0.78 over the past three seasons. The net result projects to be a strong follow-up to last season's 25 HR.
Over the past month, Dave Ross (C, CIN) has looked like the 2nd half 2006 version: 8 HR, 224 PX, .209 BA. Ross' 47% FB% is within his normal range (47%-52% past three seasons, albeit in only 537 AB). Another 10 HR over the balance-of-season is a very reasonable projection.
Luke Scott (RF, HOU) hit 10 HR in 214 AB last year; this year, he has 10 HR through 220 AB. Scott's 146 PX and 41% FB% show that last season's 133 PX, 40% FB% was no fluke. Though Scott may not get full time AB until next season, his power is real and is here now. For those in keeper leagues, invest.
Gary Sheffield (DH, DET) is in the midst of a Comeback Player of the Year type season, as pointed out by Market Watch analyst Brent Hershey in his July 6, 2007 writeup. Sheffield's 14% bb%, 89% ct%, and 1.54 Eye are comparable to 2003, a $40 (5x5), 37.8 RAR season. Sheffield's 140 PX reverses a four-year slide (149-134-125-81), and his 41% FB% is consistent with his level from 2004-2005. Over the past 31 days, Sheffield has delivered an astounding 94% ct%, 2.60 Eye, and .345 BA (.350 xBA) along with a strong 155 PX. Needless to say, we don't expect him to keep up this level of mashing for the remainder of the season; you'll have to make due with a projected 120 PX and 13 HR in 215 AB.
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