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THE SPECULATOR: Trade deadline buyers and sellers
Ray Murphy - July 20, 2007
For the next few weeks in this space, we focus in on the looming July 31 trade deadline. Our charge is to offer up some ideas about which players may be changing teams, and what cascading role shifts will create opportunities in the fanalytic world. We kick off our series with an overview of who the likely buyers and sellers are around the majors this month.
First, let's review the circumstances of some of the more prominent sellers:
Tampa Bay: Despite having the worst first half of any AL team, things are looking up in Tampa. Scott Kazmir and Jamie Shields have given them a 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. Offensively, they seem to be sorting through their balance of riches: Carlos Pena has emerged at 1B, Brendan Harris at SS, and they seem to be settling on CF as BJ Upton's position of the future.
That should help determine which hitters get moved for much-needed pitching help. Can they get Rocco Baldelli healthy in time to showcase him for a July or August deal? Do they decide to move Carl Crawford instead? With a surplus of OF and likely an Al Reyes to deal as well, what the Rays do this month should determine how quickly they can push their exciting young core into their first pennant race.
Chicago White Sox: The situation in Chicago is surprisingly bleak, 1.5 seasons after their championship. Mark Buerhle is now staying, but one or more of his fellow SP could go: John Garland or Jose Contreras, for instance. Offensively, any of Jermaine Dye, Juan Uribe, Tadahito Iguchi, or even Jim Thome could be available in a move that brings an infusion of youth to the CHW lineup or rotation.
Texas: If TEX does decide to shop Mark Teixeira, that will almost certainly be the biggest deal of this trading period. Even if they keep Teixeira, they can still have a significant impact by breaking up their Otsuka/Gagne closer tandem.
Washington: The Nats are a long way from contention, but should be active in the free agent pool this winter. In the meantime, they might capitalize on a seemingly universal need for relief help among contenders by peddling Chad Cordero. And if it looks like Nick Johnson will in fact be able to return at some point in the 2nd half, they could unload Dmitri Young for a nice profit.
Cincinnati: The emergence of Josh Hamilton and the imminent arrival of Joey Votto would seem to dictate that an outfielder will leave CIN shortly. Either Ken Griffey, Jr. or Adam Dunn would be a major trade chip should CIN go that route. If the Reds want to capitalize on a seller's market for SP, then Bronson Arroyo could be dangled.
Houston: The Astros are not accustomed to being on the seller side of the ledger in July. They may well choose to take this opportunity to break up the Brad Lidge/Dan Wheeler tag-team closer duo. If Morgan Ensberg remains out of favor in Houston, they would be well-served to offer him around. And a well-timed surge from Woody Williams could make him attractive to a contender seeking some SP help.
Turning the tables, let's take a quick look at some of the contenders' needs:
Boston: The Red Sox are taking advantage of their lead and being patient with their lingering health issues. But if Curt Schilling suffers any setbacks, or if David Ortiz's knee problem requires immediate attention, then BOS could quickly become rather desperate buyers in this market. Currently, only two of their active starters (Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka) qualify as someone who you would be comfortable with in a playoff start. If they can use Wily Mo Pena as a sweetener to avoid moving their top prospects, an addition to their pitching staff seems likely.
New York Yankees: With Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes re-enforcing the pitching rotation, the surprising need for the Yankees is another hitter to lengthen their lineup. With Damon banged up, Giambi out, and Melky Cabrera not producing, the bottom of the NYY lineup is weaker than it has been in years. Much will depend on whether they can gain ground on a playoff berth between now and the end of the month. With a lot of salary clearing off their payroll this winter (Clemens, possibly Rodriguez, Abreu, Posada, Rivera), there is once again flexibility here to take on a large contract.
New York Mets: If Lastings Milledge does not make an immediate impact, the Mets would certainly figure to be in the market for some OF help. Moises Alou can't stay healthy and Shawn Green is a shell of his former self. Another power arm in front of Billy Wagner would be a welcome addition, as well.
Oakland: If OAK can climb quickly into the West or wild-card races, some help at the back end of their bullpen would seem to be a primary need. Don't be surprised if they try to flip Mike Piazza to another contender in order to help address that need, perhaps in a 3-team move.
L.A. Angels: With Ervin Santana melting down whenever he leaves Anaheim, and Bartolo Colon's stuff unpredictable from start-to-start, LAA is yet another contender with a need to deepen their rotation. Ron Shandler wondered back in March if the Angels would finally give in and spend Scot Shields to address other needs; given the number of contenders looking for bullpen help, that may be an option here. Or, they could choose to spend from their embarrassingly rich pool of prospects, possibly including Brandon Wood.
Atlanta: Rumored bidders for Mark Teixeira, the Braves probably need positive news regarding John Smoltz before they start spending prospects for present help. Even with Smoltz, their rotation could use reinforcement. If Teixeira is not attainable, their search could expand to include an OF or 1B bat.
Milwaukee: 2007's feel-good contender has an acute need for bullpen support in front of Francisco Cordero. If they can't find the right configuration of setup men and back-of-rotation starters between Yovani Gallardo, Claudio Vargas, and Carlos Villanueva, then they will likely need to address this need via trade. They could conceivably use Bill Hall as a trade chip, in exchange for a defensive upgrade in CF and some bullpen help.
L.A Dodgers: The next few weeks could be critical ones for Chad Billingsley's LA career. With Randy Wolf perhaps hitting a post-surgery wall, and Brad Penny still an unknown as far as his ability to stay healthy for a full season, LA is in fairly desperate need of dependable starting pitching. If Billingsley continues to pitch erratically, LA may have to consider flipping him for a more reliable starter for their stretch run.
Of course this "buyers v. sellers" approach does not account for those teams that are current trapped in the "no-man's land" on the fringes of contention. As those teams settle into one category or the other between now and July 31, we will factor them into our speculations.
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