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BATTING AVERAGE BUYERS GUIDE: Potential faders
Hal Cohen - June 22, 2007
The following players are all hitting around .300 and higher. However, none have the underlying skill sets necessary to support anything close to their current performance and are good bets to fade. Like a rock.
Marlon Byrd (OF, TEX) has taken advantage of his brief playing time in Texas with a high BA. His 86% contact rate is decent, but a 7% walk rate and a 0.50 eye don’t show skills to support this high average. Lots of ground balls and poor power are other factors working against him, and a .231 xBA confirms his true expected level of output. His 45% hit rate is the magic wand creating his smoke and mirrors.
Ronnie Belliard (2B, WAS) has consistently over-performed versus his xBA this year. His contact has been pretty consistent, hovering near the 85% mark, but his monthly walk rate has moved anywhere from 0% to 8%, eating away at his on-base skills. His 34% hit rate is lucky, but not abnormally so. With a high GB% and low power, he’s hitting a lot of weak grounders that happen to slip through the infield. He’s challenging .300 now, but his .220 xBA says the rise will soon be over. Make sure to get off the ride before it stops.
Willie Harris (OF, ATL) is enjoying a small renaissance this year in Atlanta. This is a big jump for a career .249 hitter with sub-standard power and middle-of-the-road contact skills. He has managed to bump up his power this year, but the real key to his early success lies in his line drive rate. Harris is smacking an incredible 36% LD%, boosting his hit rate way up to 46%. Even xBA is reacting to the abundance of line drives, showing his true skill level as a .322 average. There is absolutely no way for Harris to maintain this level of line drive output, so expect his numbers to cool considerably.
This guide has been pointing to Derrek Lee (1B, CHC) as a fader since the measurements started in mid-April. Derrek had the help of a lucky hit rate who’s return to earth can be seen in its monthly trend: 49%, 35%, and 32%. Unfortunately, his monthly power trend is also showing slippage. Making matters worse, his contact rate dropped from 80% in May to 72% in June. It’s OK for hit rate to remain where it is for the month of June, but Lee will be unable to hit his weight unless his power returns.
Brian Roberts (2B, BAL) has shown the basic skill set to back up his BA – high contact, lots of walks, and an elite batting eye. Things are not quite what they seem, though, because Roberts has an xBA of .261. Certainly he’s been getting help from his 37% hit rate, but the real issue is the fact that he’s only putting 36% of his balls on the ground. With above-average speed and below-average power, Roberts needs to hit more ground balls in order to use his speed for more infield base hits. Expect a correction unless he tweaks his approach or he flashes more power.
Cristian Guzman (SS, WAS) has returned with a vengeance after losing 2006 to injury. It may seem like he is hitting way above his head, especially with only 6% bb%. His 39% hit rate does scream “unsustainable,” but note his xBA is a solid .299. Guzman is taking advantage of his speed by putting 60% of his batted balls on the ground, and running like crazy. His 88% contact also helps with this approach... put the bat on the ball, hit it on the ground, and beat the throw to first. There will be some drop off, but don’t be surprised to find Guzman maintaining a near-.300 average this year.
Luis Castillo (2B, MIN) is flashing some elite skills this year, making 94% contact with a 1.36 batting eye. He’s also taking the ground ball approach of successful speedsters , hitting a staggering 69% of his balls on the ground. However, his .221 xBA is warning owners to steer clear. His weak power skills will keep his xBA low, and with dwindling speed, he can’t really take full advantage of the plethora of ground balls. Expect his average to drop sharply unless he can recover his missing speed.
Jose Vidro (DH, SEA) has reversed the recent deterioration in his base performance indicators (BPI's) by improving his contact rate to 93% this season. Along with his 8% walk rate, Vidro’s skill is enabling his current BA but his .227 xBA is telling a different story. The abundance of ground balls (55%) along with the absence of any power or speed is driving the low xBA, and his BA will soon follow, even with the high contact. He’s a one-dimensional player right now, and that dimension is due to fade quickly.
The oft-injured Cliff Floyd (OF, CHC) has retained his consistent-but-average BPI’s from prior years this season, but he’s overachieving with his batting average. His low power is just another step in a trend of decay, and it’s manifested in his .252 xBA. An inflated 35% hit rate is helping Floyd give the impression of skill, but it’s really all luck right now. Don’t expect him to maintain the .300 average without improving his power and/or his contact.
Matt Diaz (OF, ATL) is showing some life with more playing time. A 3% walk rate, 0.20 eye, and a lucky 37% hit rate all say that he’s performing over his head. Diaz’s .280 xBA sets the correct expectation here. This is a good moment to sell high on his batting average, before his hit rate normalizes.
B.J. Upton (2B, TAM) is starting to normalize, but he’s still defying the odds. xBA tells us that .275 is a more appropriate expectation for Upton’s batting average. Why? For starters, his contact rate is a lowly 66%, and his batting eye a horrendous 0.33. He can thank a lucky 45% hit rate for his early-season success, but it’s not sustainable. He’s due to dip below .300.
Ryan Garko (1B, CLE) has forced his way into the Cleveland lineup. The basic BPI’s don’t support the high average, with only 5% walks and an 82% contact rate, giving him a 0.29 batting eye for the season. Garko’s been helped by a very lucky 39% hit rate, which is bound to correct itself. His .287 xBA gives him room to be a .300 hitter, but he’s overachieving right now.
Reggie Willits (OF, LAA) has been a pleasant acquisition for owners who rostered him in the wake of the Garrett Anderson injury. He's currently batting well over .300 along with excellent plate patience and a 1.06 batting eye. There’s some smoke and mirrors being used by Willits, thanks to a 25% line drive rate and a 41% hit rate. Once the hit rate normalizes, Willits should drop back below .300 where he belongs. His xBA is only showing a .239 average, so don’t be surprised to watch Willits suffer through a cold spell.
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