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THE SPECULATOR: Speculative dump trade targets
Ray Murphy - June 8, 2007
Needless to say, it is not a good thing if you are already thinking about 2008. But the reality is, some of your teams may be so far behind, or so derailed by injuries, that thoughts of a 2007 title are completely unrealistic. For these cases, you need to start thinking about dealing off your overpriced assets for cheap, future upside. It's dump deal time.
None of the names below should be considered centerpieces of dump deals: it's not within the scope of The Speculator to remind you that Jonathan Broxton is a closer-in-waiting, or that Carlos Quentin and Chris Young have bright futures in the ARI OF. Players like these (depending on salary considerations) are the ones that should be the key components of your dump deal.
What we offer here are are some names to consider as side pieces of your dump deal, the players who can often ask for as throw-ins to fill open roster spots, that a contending team shouldn't think twice about giving up. But with a good second half, they can emerge as keeper-worthy before March 2008 rolls around.
For 2007, Tony Gwynn (OF, MIL) is relegated to a reserve role in the MIL outfield. But given another winter to clear the Jenkins/Mench logjam, a role could open up for Gwynn next season. In a best-case scenario, Bill Hall moves to a corner OF, and Rickie Weeks drops down to the middle of the order, leaving Gwynn a job as CF and leadoff hitter.
Erick Aybar (IF, LAA) entered this season as a part of a muddled IF picture in Anaheim. But Brandon Wood has moved to 3B, and Maicer Izturis seems pigeon-holed into a utility role. Orlando Cabrera is having a nice season, but even that may work to Aybar's advantage. Cabrera is improving his trade value, and with 2008 as the final year of his bloated contract, he may be an attractive short-term rental. Such a move could clear the SS position for Aybar, completing the "next generation" LAA IF of Napoli-Kotchman-Kendrick-Aybar-Wood.
Miguel Montero (C, ARI) has gotten off to an inauspicious start in sharing the ARI catching job. But it is reasonable to expect that he will take over the bulk of that position next year, and will likely be flashing the power that makes him an attractive prospect.
Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX) stock is about as low as it can get right now. He's gotten a reasonable look in the TEX OF, and hasn't delivered. He may even be ticketed back to Triple-A this weekend. A period of skills consolidation in the minors may be beneficial; it stands to reason that a buried TEX team would give him another long look later this year if Cruz shows progress between now and the trading deadline.
The disabled list is often a great place to shop for dump targets. Alejandro De Aza (OF, FLA) earned the starting CF job in FLA for Opening Day, then promptly went down with a broken ankle. CF is still a hole in the FLA organization, de Aza figures to get another look later this summer. Once healthy, he will have an opportunity to seize the job again, and get his running game going.
Jon Lester (SP, BOS) has not pitched in the majors yet this season, but his stock has risen considerably. He has been given a clean bill of health following treatment for cancer, and is now on an extended rehab assignment in Triple-A. At this point, Lester is essentially finishing the Triple-A polish he was working on at this point last year, when he was somewhat prematurely promoted to Boston. He should make his way back to the BOS rotation by the All-Star Break, and at that point should be prepared to step in and contribute immediately, with the full support of what appears to be the AL's strongest team behind him.
Edwin Jackson (SP, TAM) outward numbers are terrible, highlighted by an ERA over 7.00. But there may be some hope here: the 23-year old has been PQS-DOMinant in 56% of his starts, including 5 of his last 7. Clearly, there is some still-raw talent here. A year from now, that talent may be much more polished, as he takes some lumps and gains experience this summer.
Bill Bray (RP, CIN) has not pitched in CIN yet this year, but his stock as a future saves source has improved anyway. David Weathers remains a short-term option in the CIN pen. Todd Coffey has been banished to Triple-A. Eddie Guardado, even if he returns healthy, has a shelf life similar to Weathers. If Bray comes back and strings together a good 2nd half in any role, he should enter 2008 as part of the saves picture in CIN, if not the favorite for the job.
Applying the injury approach to searching out pitchers, we're led to another pair of Marlins: Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson. Both suffered arm troubles coming off their 2006 rookie campaigns. Neither is career-threatening, in fact the shutdown period may allow them to shake off burnout risk that had us concerned entering this season. They remain intriguing young arms with a favorable home ballpark working in their favor.
Carlos Villanueva (P, MIL) has so far been a victim of the Brewer resurgence: he could start for many major-league teams, but MIL's rotation depth has him relegated to bullpen work. In a best-case scenario, he could graduate to a rotation slot next year, in MIL or somewhere else, in much the way that Dan Haren moved from middle relief in STL to a rotation spot in OAK a few years ago.
The Speculator is not designed to makes definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.
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