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POWER BUYERS GUIDE: A component skills look at some power sources
Joshua Randall - June 1, 2007
Magglio Ordonez (RF, DET) continues to mash: .357 with 12 HR in 185 AB with a 209 PX. Ordonez's 12% bb% is significantly higher than the 7%-9% level he's shown over the past five seasons; his 1.09 Eye is also higher than normal. What's driving the power is a 46% FB%, up eight to ten points from its customary 36%-38% range (discounting a low 34% FB rate in 2005 as injury induced).
Can this 33-year-old keep it up? The answer is "Yes, but...." Ordonez still owns power skills from the past, and as pointed out Tom Kephart in the May 6, 2007 Market Watch, "if he can sustain the realignment of the GB/FB ratio he's displayed to date, a power production breakout may form a reasonable expectation for the veteran outfielder this season." Two weeks ago, this column said that "a 204 PX is extreme" and that a more reasonable expectation would be something in the 150s. Ordonez continues to defy the odds with his 209 PX, but don't count on that continuing for much longer.
A scan of Alex Rios' (RF, TOR) G/L/F trends over the past three years is enticing -- focusing just on his FB%, we see 23%-31%-42% from 2004-2006, and now 51% thus far in 2007. His PX trended up over the same period: 68-90-134 and 138 today. Rios' bb% and Eye are comparable to what he's done in the past, and his 86% ct% is the best it's been at the Major League level. Rios' current FB%/PX combo may be over his head in the long run, but our projected 124 PX and 14 HR over the balance-of-season looks easily doable.
Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) is still on the Top Skills list, but his once whopping 305 PX (as of April 16, 2007) dropped to 170 by May 14 and is now 124. That level is still well above his 2006 season PX (103), so there could be further loss of power to come. However, Kinsler is still hitting a lot of FB (50%) and does have some history to back it up: 52% FB% in 1H 2006 (125 PX).
In addition, Kinsler's once stellar 24% LD rate is down to a middling 19%, draining his H% to 24% and taking with it Kinsler's BA (now .244, compared to .277 on 5/7 and .323 on 4/16). As hot as Kinsler was to start the season, he's gone cold now. The 24% H% is particularly unlucky compared to history (two seasons of 31%), and his 10% bb%, 83% ct%, and 0.62 Eye show that Kinsler is not just up there hacking away. The early power outburst was never sustainable, but the Avg should come back with normal luck.
Chase Utley (2B, PHI) has an impressive 175 PX (albeit down from a 201 PX two weeks ago) and 44% FB%. Utley's PX and FB% did increase from 1H06 (124, 42%) to 2H 2006 (137, 45%), so further growth in those metrics is possible.
Khalil Greene (SS, SD) sports a 146 PX and 6 HR in 184 AB. Greene is doing this on the strength of a 48% FB%, compared to 44%-46% over the past three seasons. However, Greene's low 15% LD% and 24% H% have led to a .217 BA. Greene has never been a high-BA hitter, but all that power is driving a .271 xBA, so expect improvement in that area. As for the power itself, PX near 150 may be over Greene's head; our projected 117 PX (balance-of-season) looks more reasonable given Greene's PX history (110-124-115).
The continuing transformation of Torii Hunter (CF, MIN) from "frequent Web Gem nominee with above average power" to "slugger" is startling. From 2003-2005, Hunter's PX held steady in the 118-129 range and his FB% in the 34%-37% range, with decent core BPIs (~8% bb%, ~82% ct%, ~0.45 Eye). Then in the second half of 2006, he gradually cranked up his PX (117-147-135) and stopped taking walks (bb%: 7%-4%-2%). Roughly two months into the 2007 season, Hunter has a 4% bb% and a 0.22 Eye... plus a big 174 PX (and 11 HR in 186 AB) thanks partly to 42% FB%. This is a dramatic transformation, but given that Hunter is no spring chicken and that it's been going one for more than half a season now, it appears deliberate. The upshot should be more power, less Avg (Hunter's current .317 BA is propped up by a 35% H%) -- if Hunter can keep hitting all those FB and if pitchers don't realize he's no longer walking and give him nothing to hit. There's danger here, but also (power) upside.
Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI) was a pre-season BHQ favorite on the basis of some power (and BA) upside, and in early May he was hitting .314 with 9 HR, a .614 Slg, and a 168 PX. But Rollins has fallen to a .275 Avg with no additional HR in the past three-plus weeks. His PX is now 132. Still, that's is a big leap from PXs of 96-85-111 ('04-'06); it's due mostly to more FB (45%) than normal (maximum 37% over the past five seasons). It does appear that Rollins had opened up his swing to start the season -- his 86% ct% is below the 88%-90% ct% he had from 2004-2006, and his 0.44 Eye is down a lot from 0.66-0.78 over the same time span.
The more interesting question is whether Rollins' early-season transition to power-hitter is sustainable: his personal hr/f was in the 5%-7% range from 2002-2005 before jumping to 11% in 2006. (It's currently 10%.) Previous research shows there's a better than average chance that Rollins' hr/f will rise again in 2007; the question remains, how much? Even a small increase to, say, 13% hr/f would give Rollins 30 HR this year, assuming he hits about the same number of FB as last year.
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JUNE 8 for
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