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SCORESHEET/SIM GAMING: Trading Opportunities
Jay Pobis
Scoresheet success is founded in a variety of skills ranging from player analysis and drafting technique to line-up card construction and maintenance. Not to be lost in the shuffle, however, is a deft touch in trade execution. Early May is an ideal time to identify trade bargains and capitalize on the insecurities of our league mates. This week we'll review some Buy Low and Sell High trading opportunities.
Buy Low
Mark Loretta (2B, BOS)
Performance: .207/.261/.279, 12R, 1HR, 12RBI
The pitch: I could really use some bulk At Bats at 2B and Loretta's still got a nice defensive range. He's clearly not the same player he was prior to hurting his wrist, though, and it doesn't look like he'll rebound.
The inside scoop: Loretta's BPIs are all perfectly in line with his historical performance levels and pre-season expectations. His Contact rate (CT%) is strong as ever at 93% and his EYE is a sterling 1.00. He's currently afflicted be a wickedly unlucky 22% Hit rate (H%) which deviates significantly from his established 33% norm. With "expected" luck - a 33% Hit rate instead of 22% - Loretta's AVG would be .333. Buy now!
Jim Edmonds (CF, STL)
Performance: .202/.302/.393, 12R, 4HR, 20RBI
The pitch: Edmonds is 35 and the wear and tear of his hard-nosed play have caught up to him. He's still got value as a tremendous CFer but his days of being a middle-of-the-order stud are gone.
The inside scoop: Like Loretta, Edmonds' BPIs are perfectly in line with historical performance and pre-season expectations. All except the dreaded Hit rate which stands at 23% vs. an expected 32%. Edmonds is still driving the ball hard as evidenced by his 128 PX - and the PX will rise right along with everything else when more balls start finding the gaps.
Dan Johnson (1B, OAK)
Performance: .178/.268/.301, 8R, 2HR, 4RBI
The pitch: I need a left-handed bat for my bench. Can I toss you a Rd. 25 for Dan Johnson?
The inside scoop: Buy now! The price will never be this low again. All BPIs are in line with pre-season expectations and the culprit is - you guessed it! - an atrocious 18% (!) Hit rate. You can be sure OAK knows what they've got with Johnson and he'll get every opportunity to re-establish himself. Which he will.
Khalil Greene (SS, SD)
Performance: .209/.321/.385, 10R, 4HR, 13RBI
The pitch: I need someone who can outhit AAA SS, even if only a little.
The inside scoop: Yet more Hit rate driven bad luck. Behind the numbers Greene is actually demonstrating a much more patient plate approach with a Walk rate up to 15%. That improvement is driving an increase in EYE and is a great sign that Greene is maturing - not trying to slug his way out of a slump. If he maintains his good plate discipline and combines it with his PX gains from the second half of 2005 then he'll explode once his hit rate reverts back to form.
Brad Radke (P, MIN)
Performance: 33.3 IP, 7.29 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
The pitch: Anyone can beat KC but he's been atrocious against everyone else. Still, I need some dependable Innings Pitched.
The inside scoop: Radke, as much as any other pitcher, relies on the inevitable balance of balls in play being turned into outs. He's had a rough stretch to start the season facing TOR, OAK, NYY, CWS and DET - all of which except OAK (97) have a team PX greater than 113. He's kept his usual ratio of ground balls to fly balls, only that a ridiculous percentage of fly balls are turning into HR. Radke's luck will change, his strand rate will revert and we'll once again see his well-established elite BPVs.
Jon Lieber (P, PHI)
Performance: 36.7 IP, 6.87 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
The pitch: Despite his raw ability, nobody can expect to pitch successfully over the long haul at Citizens Bank Park.
The inside scoop: Lieber is this close to turning the corner on his own fair share of bad luck. In the same way that deflated hit rates drive down AVG for offensive players, inflated hit rates destroy pitchers. Lieber is currently enduring a 38% Hit rate compared to an expected 31%. Those extra base hits are in turn sinking his Strand rate and inflating his ERA. His current BPV and xERA indicate a significant adjustment is coming. Hop on board if you can.
Jeff Weaver (P, ANA)
Performance: 35 IP, 6.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
The pitch: I need IP, give me any live body. Hey, how about that schlub Weaver?
The inside scoop: Despite poor outward statistics, Weaver has opened 2006 with a skill set exactly as advertised in the pre-season. His problem right now is a paltry 58% Strand rate which is driving his actual ERA two and a half runs higher than his xERA. The indicators here are very strong that Weaver is likely to turn the corner.
Sell High
Alexis Rios (OF, TOR)
Performance: .386/.407/.735, 15R, 6HR, 21RBI
The pitch: We've been waiting for this guy to arrive and he's finally here. I hate to have to part with him but I could really use...
The inside scoop: While drawing a walk only 3% of the time to open the season Rios has generated an awful 0.21 EYE ratio. He's swinging at everything, and swinging hard, and right now his balls in play are finding safe harbor. His luck (41% Hit rate) will run out about the same time as the scouting reports get around not to give him anything in the strike zone. Then the bottom falls out. Rios projects to a sub-.750 OPS for the balance of the season and isn't demonstrating any appreciable skills growth to give future hope.
Ty Wigginton (3B, TAM)
Performance: .260/.308/.550, 14R, 8HR, 26RBI
The pitch: 8 HR from a 3B, but I've already got a starter there. I've got to move Wigginton for value somewhere else I can use it.
The inside scoop: Wigginton's start to 2006 is a classic case of a guy seizing an opportunity by opening up his strike zone (EYE down to 0.30) and swinging hard at everything. That approach can carry you for a while but sooner or later the devil catches up with you. Wigginton has the added problem of a playing time crunch as the Devil Rays just got Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo back this week, with Jorge Cantu just around the corner.
Sidney Ponson (P, STL)
Performance: 29 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
The pitch: He looks like he's benefitting from the kind of clubhouse Tony LaRussa runs.
The inside scoop: A depressed Hit rate (26%) and unsustainable Strand rate (82%) mean that Ponson's start is fueled by luck and not skill. Nobody survives with a 3.4 DOM and 1.2 CMD.
Mike Maroth (P, DET)
Performance: 30.3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
The pitch: Of course he can't keep this up but it looks like this is going to be his year.
The inside scoop: Maroth's peripherals are eerily similar to Ponson's and equally as alarming. A 26% Hit rate combined with an 89% Strand rate means Maroth has been as lucky as can be. Also like Ponson his 3.6 DOM and 1.2 CMD scream "RUN!"
Brian Bannister (P, NYM)
Performance: 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
The pitch: Young pitcher on a very good team pitching in a great pitcher's park.
The inside scoop: 0.8 CMD. For a soft-tosser. xERA is 5.01. Duck and cover!
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