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DR. HQ, INJURY ANALYST: Is "Everyday Eddie" breaking down?
Rick Wilton
Eddie Guardado (LHP, SEA)
For what seems his entire career, Eddie Guardado has carried the nickname "Everyday Eddie" because he's had a rubber arm. He could pitch in back-to-back situations as effectively as any reliever. This long run may be coming to a close. We've known for a while that Guardado has been pitching with a torn rotator cuff. The Mariners knew it when they brought him on board in 2004. The ailment did cost him part of the 2004 season, but he rebounded in 2005 with 36 saves in 58 games. We are now seeing signs that he's just not getting the job done and the shoulder is the reason, despite his denials. His K/BB ratio is 1.3, the lowest mark since his rookie year in 1993. His impressive 10.8 K/9 rate hides all the other problems. He's allowing opposing batters to hit .417 against him. He's allowed three homers already this year after yielding just seven in all of 2005. His WHIP is 2.40, so troubling that MGR Mike Hargrove has been careful not to bring him into a game with runners on.
Guardado says his arm is sore but he can deal with it. He also goes out of his way to explain it's not pain, and that he knows the difference. Yet something is taking its toll on his velocity and command. He rarely gets his fastball up to 88-90 MPH anymore. He's missing his target by huge margins, according to veteran Mariner observers.
If you look at his 2005 season, one fact stands out. Something happened either late in August or early In September. His September 2005 numbers were 6.17 ERA, 1.82 Ratio and a 7.1 K/9 rate. His April 2006 start is almost a mirror image of his struggles last September.
If I owned Eddie Guardado right now, I'd be making plans to get another closer, or look to acquire J.J. Putz and Rafael Soriano to back up Guardado when he falters. If his shoulder condition is getting worse -- as we believe it is -- his days as a closer are numbered, especially when you consider his current age (35) and shoulder condition.
A.J. Burnett (RHP, TOR)
Now that more information regarding Burnett's ailing pitching elbow came out, it's easier to project when he'll be back. Dr. James Andrews diagnosed him with: "a mild sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament and a slight straining of scar tissue in the elbow." Up until his follow-up exam with Andrews, the scar tissue was the main and only source of his pain, according to earlier reports. Or at least that is what we were told. He's gone from scar tissue issues and missing a few starts, to sitting for a couple of weeks, then resuming throwing.
The mild sprained UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) changes how we view his current ailment. We might not see him resume any kind of throwing until May 8-10. When he starts up again, it will be light tossing. Then he'll graduate to long toss to build up his arm strength. He'll then throw from a flat surface, off a mound, against live hitters in BP, then a probable rehab stint. This is a likely three-week process, if not more. The Blue Jays aren't likely to push his return, especially given what has transpired this spring. If he sticks to the 14-day shutdown period, we are not likely to see Burnett until the last week of May or the first week of June.
Julio Lugo (SS, TB)
In a classic case of swimming in quicksand, Lugo struggles to make noticeable progress from an intercostal muscle strain in his ribcage on his left side. He's illustrating how difficult it is to predict a return date or see players rebound quickly from this ailment. It just doesn't happen. Tampa Bay is speculating he won't be back for another three weeks. This puts his return date around May 15th, meaning he would miss about six weeks with the injury. This is about two weeks longer than the average recovery time.
What makes his situation more troubling is that this is the second 'adjustment' the Devil Rays have made with his recovery rate. They're either afraid to term it a setback when they announce the return date, or the ailment just isn't responding to treatment as quickly as they expected. Lugo needs to get to the level of recovery where he can go out on a rehab assignment. The longer he is out of the lineup, the longer he'll need to play in minor league games to get his swing down and comfort back at the plate. This isn't the kind of news you want to hear if you are a Lugo owner. Any kind of setback could push his return to the end of May/early June.
Rich Harden (RHP, OAK)
Oakland placed Harden on the disabled list last Friday night with a slight tear of a muscle in the lower right back area. Most likely it's a slightly torn lat muscle (latissimus dorsi) or internus oblique muscle. Last year, Harden spent time on the DL with a strained left oblique muscle. No word yet how long he'll be out. This injury in the torso area, the second one in two years makes you wonder why he continues to have muscle problems in this region. Does he lack flexibility in the area? Does he do too much weight-lifting, reducing the flexibility? Whatever the reason, it can be argued he has a reccurring health issue that needs to be addressed. If I had to guess how long he'll be out, I'd say at least three weeks. We'll know more when the A's reveal more about the MRI and their plans for his recovery.
Brian Roberts (2B, BAL)
The Orioles placed Roberts on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. He suffered the injury on Saturday. Roberts has struggled with a left hip flexor the past couple of weeks. It's not out of the question the two ailments are related. Roberts could have overcompensated for the hip flexor and suffered the groin muscle injury. Or, his left leg could have been in a weakened condition causing the new injury. The medical staff believes Roberts will need about ten days to bounce back and be game ready. If they are accurate, he'll be back around May 14. Until he tests the leg in a week or so, we won't know if he'll meet the minimum 15 days.
Paul Wilson (RHP, CIN)
Wilson missed the second half of the 2005 season after undergoing surgery to repair damage to his rotator cuff and some fraying of his labrum. His rehab has been uneventful so far. He just completed his first rehab start, working seven innings. His arm strength look decent but he did fatigue later in the game, which isn't unexpected. While everything looks positive, we can't ignore the fact few pitchers can make it back from the complex surgery he had. All we have to do is look at Tony Armas Jr. as a recent example. Wilson is expected to make one more rehab start, then be activated from the disabled list around May 5-8. Savvy fantasy owners would be wise to avoid Wilson no matter how positive the early reports are. There is just too much risk considering his surgery.
Jorge Cantu (2B, TB)
The official diagnosis is in and Cantu has a small fracture of the navicular bone in his left foot. If the bone sounds familiar that is because it's the same bone Frank Thomas has fractured twice in the past 18 months or so. So is Cantu's future as cloudy as Thomas?
No. First off, Cantu's fracture is on the top of the bone and it is non displaced (the bones are in alignment). Thomas needed surgery to repair the damage to the bone, including a bone graft. Cantu is fortunate his fracture site isn't nearly as complex. Knowing what the injury is now, it is kind of surprising the Devil Rays believe he can be back in 15-21 days. We still believe it will be closer to four weeks than three.
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