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FUTURES: Triple-A Preview
Rob Gordon
The Futures Hot Sheet starts its annual preview of where the top prospects in baseball will start the 2006 season. This week we take a look at the top prospects at Triple-A.
International League:
Lastings Milledge (OF, NYM) has Mets fans drooling over his 5-tool talent. In 2005 Milledge hit .318/.388/.449 with 33 doubles, 17 home runs, and 29 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A. Milledge still needs to improve his plate discipline – 0.38 EYE in 05 – before he's ready to make his major league debut, but he has as much raw talent as any prospect in the NL and should develop more power as he matures.
B.J. Upton (SS, TB) is back at Triple-A to try and improve defensively so that he can stay at the position. The Devil Rays have plenty of OF prospects and they would love to keep his bat and athleticism at this key position. However, the fact is that Upton committed 53 errors in 2005 and will have to make significant strides and quickly. At the plate there is still a lot to like. In 2005 Upton hit .303/.392/.490 with 36 doubles, 18 home runs, 44 stolen bases, and a 0.61 EYE in 545 AB. 2005 could be a make or break season for Upton.
Elijah Dukes (OF, TB) continued to make as much noise on the field as off in 2005, earning additional suspensions and having to miss the Arizona Fall League to attend anger management courses. On the field, Dukes has tremendous potential and in 2005 hit .287/.355/.487 with 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 19 steals, and a 0.54 EYE in 446 AB at Double-A. If he can stay out of trouble, Dukes has the size (6'2", 225) and speed (4.0) to be a star.
Delmon Young (OF, TB) joins B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes on what should be an exciting Durham team. To date the Devil Rays have wisely resisted the temptation to bring Young to the majors, thereby starting his service clock, but one wonders how much longer they can keep Young down on the farm. In 2005 Young continued to impress by hitting .315/.354/.527 with 26 doubles, 26 home runs, and 32 steals between Double and Triple-A. He does still need to improve his strike zone judgment (0.30 EYE in 05), but once that improves look for Young to make his big league debut shortly after.
Brad Eldred (1B, PIT) got a taste of the majors in 2005 and fared about as expected – good power, but lots of strikeouts and a low average as well. During his stint in the majors Eldred smacked 12 home runs in just 190 AB – but had such poor plate discipline that he hit only .221. This performance earned Eldred a return engagement at Triple-A Indianapolis. With the off-season acquisition of Sean Casey, Eldred is now blocked at 1B and may need to start over with a new team. Unless Eldred improves his plate discipline quickly and cuts down on his whiffs (77k in those 190 AB), he is unlikely to succeed.
Ryan Sweeney (OF, CWS) struggled with a wrist injury the entire 2005 season. The injury partially explains his season long power outage. Still Sweeney managed only one home run in 429 AB at for Double-A Birmingham and has only 10 career minor league home runs in over 1,000 AB. He has a text book swing and drives the ball to all fields, and is very athletic – but he must show more power in order to avoid taking the Sean Burroughs path to oblivion.
Josh Fields (3B, CWS) gets another challenge from the White Sox who have promoted him aggressively since drafting him in the first round in 2004 out of Oklahoma State. Fields struggled last year, hitting just .252/.341/.409 with 27 doubles, 16 home runs, and a 0.39 EYE in 477 AB at Double-A, so the move to Triple-A is somewhat of a surprise. Fields has tremendous power potential, but he will need to cut down on his strikeouts (142 in under 500 AB in 05) before he will be ready for the majors.
Andy Marte (3B, CLE) went from Atlanta, to Boston, to Cleveland in the off-season, but is still one of the best young 3B in the game. Marte combines plus power at the plate with gold-glove caliber defense in the field. In 2005 Marte hit .275/.372/.506 with 26 doubles, 20 home runs, and a 0.77 EYE in 389 AB at Triple-A Richmond. Marte struggled during his brief exposure in Atlanta but he improved his plate discipline and should settle in as the Indians 3B for years to come.
Jeremy Sowers (LHP, CLE) continued to overmatch minor league hitters despite having less than dominant stuff. His fastball tops out around 90-91, but he consistently spots it well and has good command of his change, slider, and curve. In 2005 Sowers was an impressive 14-4 with a 2.37 ERA, 1.6 CTL, 8.4 DOM, 5.1 CMD and a .235 batting average against (BAA) in 159 1/3 IP between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.
Brandon League (RHP, TOR) has one of the best fastballs in the minors. His heater sits in the mid-90s and tops out at 97-98 with good, late sink. He also has a decent slider. The problem with League is that he can't control his stuff or throw anything consistently for a strike. Surprisingly he has never been a particularly dominant pitcher and does not miss enough bats despite the high-90s heat. In 2005 he posted a 5.71 ERA, 2.6 CTL, 5.0 DOM, 1.9 CMD in 63 IP and wasn't any better in Toronto – 6.56 ERA in 35 2/3 IP.
Tom Gorzelanny (LHP, PIT) is another finesse lefty but is the Pirates best pitching prospect. In 2005 Gorzelanny was 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA, 3.2 CTL, 8.6 DOM, 2.7 CMD, and a .235 BAA in 129 2/3 IP. Gorzelanny projects more as a back-of-the-rotation, but there could be a lot of flux in the Pirates rotation so it would not be surprising to see him reach the majors at some point in 2006.
Eric Duncan (1B/3B, NYY) struggled at Double-A in 2005 but remains the Yankees most advanced position prospect. Duncan hit just .235/.326/.408 with 15 doubles, 19 home runs, and a 0.43 EYE in 451 AB. However, he looked much better in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .362/.423/.734 and was named the league MVP. There has been some speculation that the move from 3B to 1B will accelerate his ascent to the majors but it is hard to imagine him finding playing time with the Yankees at either position. A trade might be his best bet for contributing in 2006.
Nelson Cruz (OF, MIL) had another solid season in 2005, hitting for power and average while splitting time between Double and Triple-A. Cruz hit .289/.385/.537 with 32 doubles, 27 home runs, 19 steals, and a 0.46 EYE in 456 AB. Cruz has tremendous power but he also has a tendency to swing for the fences and to try and pull everything. As a result he strikes out frequently (133 times in 05). Still if Cruz can shorten his stroke and cut down on his k's he could develop into a productive every day player.
David Purcey (LHP, TOR) has good stuff and does an excellent job of missing bats. His fastball sits in the low-90s and his slider and curve are above-average pitches. In 2005 Purcey was 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA, 5.3 CTL, 10.5 DOM, 2.0 CMD, and a .221 BAA in 136 1/3 IP. Purcey has lots of upside but will need to improve his command and cut down on his walk rate (81 walks in 2005) before he is ready to crack the Jays starting rotation.
Pacific Coast League:
Justin Huber (1B, KC) made a successful transition for catcher to 1B in 2005. Just as important is that he rebounded nicely at the plate. For the year Huber hit .326/.417/.560 with 28 doubles, 23 home runs, and a 0.65 EYE in 448 AB between Double and Triple-A. Huber will have to maintain this level of productivity or risk losing being passed over by Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, or Chris Lubanski – all of whom could end up at 1B or DH for the Royals.
Russ Martin (C, LAD) is one of the better offensive catching prospects in the minors. Martin put up solid numbers in 2005 – hitting .311/.430/.423 with 17 doubles, 9 home runs, and an impressive 1.13 EYE in 409 AB at Double-A. Don't be surprised to see Martin get an extended look in the majors at some point during the 06 season.
Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA) is one of the best contact hitters in the minors. Since being drafted in the 10th round in 2002, Kendrick has done nothing but hit and has a .359 minor league career average. Last year was no exception and Kendrick hit a combined .368/.406/.614 with 43 doubles, 19 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 0.32 EYE in 469 AB. The trade of fellow prospect Alberto Collaspo to the Diamondbacks removed one potential roadblock and with Adam Kennedy a free agent at the end of the season, it may only be a matter of time before Kendrick makes his major league debut.
Daric Barton (1B, OAK) made a smooth transition from catcher to 1B in 2005 and did not let it effect him at the plate - .317/.426/.478 with 36 doubles, 13 home runs, and an impressive 1.22 EYE in 504 AB between High-A and Double-A. Barton is limited defensively and may never develop into a 25+ home run hitter, but he does have a sweet swing and very good plate discipline.
Chad Billingsley (RHP, LAD) is the best pitching prospect at Triple-A. He has an overpowering fastball that sits in the mid-90s and tops out at 97. He combines that with a good slider, a decent change, and very good command. In 2005 Billingsley went 13-6 with a 3.51 ERA, 3.1 CTL, 10.0 DOM, 3.2 CMD, and a .215 BAA in 146 IP at Double-A. The Dodgers will most likely want to keep Billingsley at Triple-A for most if not all of the 2006 season, but his long-term potential is as good as any pitching prospect in the National League.
Joel Guzman (OF, LAD) has officially been moved from SS to OF to start the 2006 season. Guzman is also slated to see some action at 1B to increase his position flexibility. Guzman has as much raw talent of any prospect in baseball but still needs to smooth out some of the rough edges. In particular he will need to get enough repetitions in the OF to be ready to play there at the next level – and he still needs to improve his plate discipline. If he can do that, he should emerge as an impact corner OF, possibly as soon as 2007.
Felix Pie (OF, CHC) is the Cubs best position prospect and has a ton of long-term potential. In 2005 Pie started the season very well and was on the verge of a major league call-up when a severely sprained ankle forced him to miss the rest of the season. Pie showed improved power in 2005 and for the year hit .304/.349/.554 with 17 doubles, 11 home runs, 13 steals, and a 0.30 EYE in 240 Double-A AB. As with most prospects, Pie still needs to improve his control of the strike zone and cut down on his whiffs – but the potential is there for him to develop into a 20/20 player.
Angel Guzman (RHP, CHC) still has very good stuff but has had difficulty staying healthy. Guzman has yet to log more than 90 innings in a year since he had shoulder surgery in 2003. Last year was more of the same as he missed all but 18 innings with stiffness in his forearm. When he is on the mound, he features a mid-90s fastball that has good late sinking action, a tight, late-breaking curve, and a solid change-up. If he can stay healthy and learn to trust his stuff, he could still develop into a quality starter.
Dustin Nippert (RHP, ARI) re-established himself as the Diamondbacks top pitching prospect after having Tommy John surgery in June 2004. In 18 starts at Double-A Tennessee, Nippert posted an 8-3 record with a 2.38 ERA, 3.2 CTL, 7.5 DOM, 2.3 CMD, and .226 BAA in 117 IP. Given that his fastball sits in the 92-94 range his lack of DOM is somewhat puzzling, but he still has very good stuff and could see time in the Diamondbacks rotation this year.
Stephen Drew (SS, ARI) has an exciting range of baseball skills. He showed enough defensively to convince the Diamondbacks that he can stay at SS (with Justin Upton moving to CF) and at the plate he should hit for average and power and with good on-base ability. In his professional debut he hit a combined .320/.414/.596 with 21 doubles, 14 home runs, and a 0.78 EYE in 250 AB. The is much speculation that if the Diamondbacks fall out of contention that Drew could replace Craig Counsell as the team's starting SS by mid-season.
Edison Volquez (RHP, TEX) has dynamic stuff but doesn't miss enough bats. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he complements with a plus change-up and a good slider. His BPI's would suggest much better results than those posted by Volquez in 2005 – 6-9 with a 4.10 ERA, 2.0 CTL, 9.0 DOM, 4.4 CMD, and a .254 BAA in 127 1/3 IP between Double and Triple-A.
Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA) had a very impressive spring and could join his brother in the Angels rotation at some point in 2006. Weaver's stuff is very similar to his older brother – low-90s four-seam fastball, slider, and a decent change-up. His but his out pitch is his plus two-seam fastball that has very good sink and late movement. Weaver continues to exceed expectations and his 2005 debut silenced many skeptics who wondered how his stuff would translate from college to the pros. In 2005 Weaver was 7-4 with a 3.91 ERA, 3.1 CTL, 11.3 DOM, 3.7 CMD in 76 innings between High-A and Double-A.
Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, FLA) continues to baffle minor league hitters despite having only slightly above-average stuff. In 2005 Petit posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.6 CTL, 9.8 DOM, 6.0 CMD (24bb/144k), and a .230 BAA in 132 1/3 IP between Double and Triple-A. Because of the plethora of young arms in the Marlins organization, Petit will likely spend a good chunk of the 06 season at Triple-A.
Adam Jones (OF, SEA) was moved to the OF because of the logjam at short within the organization. In 2005 he hit .297/.370/.479 with 30 doubles, 15 home runs, 0.46 EYE in 499 AB between High-A and Double-A. Those are good numbers for a shortstop but only so-so for an OF prospect. Jones is very athletic and could add power as he matures.
Carlos Quentin (OF, ARI) returns to Triple-A to gain more experience and await an opening on the Diamondbacks outfield. After hitting .301/.422/.520 with 28 doubles, 21 home runs, and a 1.01 EYE for Triple-A Tucson last season, Quentin has little left to prove in the minors. Long-term the Diamondbacks have a potential log-jam in the OF with Justin Upton, Quentin, Chris Young, and Carlos Gonzalez all listed among our top 100 prospects.
Jason Hirsh (RHP, HOU) had a breakthrough season in 2005. The lanky (6'8") righty was 13-8 with a 2.87 ERA, 2.2 CTL, 8.6 DOM, and 3.9 CMD, a .218 BAA in 172 1/3 IP at Double-A. Hirsh has good, but not overwhelming stuff, and needs to work on putting hitters away. Triple-A in the PCL should be a good test. Look for some shaky outings at first but eventually he should turn into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Astros.
Anthony Reyes (RHP, STL) was in contention for the 5th starter spot this spring, but was beaten out by the veteran Sidney Ponson. This may be a blessing in disguise, especially for owners in keeper leagues who may have drafted Reyes on the cheap. Reyes has above-average stuff and features a low-90s fastball, a plus curve, and a decent change – plus he knows how to pitch. Reyes may never develop into a staff ace, but he does have the stuff to be a quality #2 or #3 starter and should see consideration action in St. Louis this season.
Kendry Morales (1B/OF, LAA) looked impressive this spring but will have to wait for an opening on the major league roster. Morales is a hitting machine and put up some impressive numbers in 2005 - .315/.362/.534 with 15 doubles, 22 home runs, and 0.43 EYE in 371 AB between High-A and Double-A. Defensively, Morales is better suited at 1B, but with Casey Kotchman ahead of him and a better defender, Morales' wait could be a long one.
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