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Copyright © 2008
Shandler Enterprises ISSN# 1534-1542 Volume 8, No. 1 January 18, 2008 |
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MARKET TICKER Improved control could lead to breakthrough for Devine... The A's continued their reconstruction by trading Mark Kotsay (OF, ATL) to the Braves for reliever Joey Devine (RHP, OAK). The 24-year old Devine hasn't done much in his short stints with the Braves, but his MLEs show he's definitely got some serious stuff: Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 BPV ===== == ==== ==== === ==== === ==== === 2005* 26 5.88 6.91 6.9 9.7 1.4 1.7 31 2006* 17 5.26 4.08 7.9 14.7 1.9 1.1 109 2007* 65 2.27 3.34 3.9 9.9 2.5 0.3 112 * - include MLEs Two things Devine does well - he strikes out batters at an extraordinary rate, and he keeps the ball down, forcing many ground balls (G/L/F split of 57/15/28 at AA and AAA in 2007). The combination led to a successful stint as a closer, with 20 saves last year. Devine needs to cut down on his walks; it's been his downfall in the majors (22 BB in 20 IP). He took a step forward last year with 2.7 Ctl at AA/AAA, and his Cmd has improved over the past two years. If the A's trade Huston Street (RHP, OAK), it wouldn't be surprising if Devine got a shot at the closer's role. While his major league numbers indicate that he'll likely struggle in the early going, if Devine can cut down on his walks at the major league level, he could have a prominent role in the A's bullpen in 2008. Lieber joins Cubs... Jon Lieber (RHP, CHC) has signed with the Cubs after having his 2007 season cut short by a ruptured foot tendon. Lieber has long been noted for his excellent control, and has often registered elite CMD (K/BB) ratios. Year IP ERA WHIP H% S% CTL DOM CMD XERA BPV ===== ====== ===== ===== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===== 2004 176.2 4.34 1.33 33% 70% 0.9 5.2 5.7 3.97 120 2005 218.1 4.21 1.21 29% 70% 1.7 6.1 3.6 3.81 72 2006 168.0 4.93 1.31 31% 66% 1.3 5.4 4.2 3.83 76 2007 78.0 4.73 1.45 34% 68% 2.5 6.2 2.5 4.46 60 Lieber's CTL (BB/9) was not as sharp as in prior years, but his DOM (K/9) improved. Overall the trade-off resulted in lower CMD, higher xERA and lower BPV. Lieber's hit rate was on the high side, so some regression there could help him. He's moving from one unfavorable pitching environment to another, though CHC's Wrigley Field is somewhat less punishing to pitchers than PHI's Citizens Bank Park when it comes to HR (PHI: LHB HR= +30; RHB HR= +36%. CHC: LHB HR = + 19%; RHB HR = 7%). While Lieber's career appears to be in decline, he may still have value in deeper NL-only formats, assuming he's provided and able to maintain regular turns in the starting rotation. A speculative end-game bid would not be unreasonable. Mariners sign Cairo to one-year contract... Miguel Cairo (3B, SEA) was signed to a one-year contract and is expected to play a role coming off the bench. For four consecutive seasons, Cairo has produced double-digit stolen bases, in spite of a mediocre batting average. What can we expect in 2008? Here are his BPI. Year AB SB BA xBA OB PX SX ==== === == ==== ==== ==== == === 2004 360 11 .292 .272 .325 73 129 2005 327 13 .251 .275 .292 53 88 2006 222 13 .239 .263 .281 55 148 2007 174 10 .253 .232 .297 53 129 Proj 128 6 .250 .238 .294 48 121 Cairo's only fanalytic skill is his speed. He doesn't walk much, and that combined with a weak BA has produced an OB under .300 for three consecutive seasons. Clearly, major league teams have caught on, as shown by his falling AB totals. Cairo's contract includes additional pay if he reaches 300 at bats, so it can be assumed that the Mariners are planning on fewer AB than that from him. Accordingly, we are projecting that he won't produce double-digit SB again this season, depleting his already minimal fanalytic value. And his BA from 2006 and xBA from 2007 warn of considerable BA downside. He'll be a cheap source of a few SB, but there are far better options available. Giles to compete for Rockies 2B job... Marcus Giles (2B, COL) signed a one-year contract with the Rockies and is expected to compete for the club's second-base job following the departure of Kaz Matsui (2B, HOU). Giles started 2007 strong, hitting .327 in April. Then everything fell apart. His batting average dropped 43 points from a year earlier and he failed to hit a HR after the All-Star break. More often than not, the guy who was considered to have .300-20-20 ability just a couple of years ago found himself on the bench. Now he becomes part of what may shape up as one of the most intriguing position battles in the NL. Year AB HR BA bb% ct% h% Eye PX SX xBA ====== ===== ==== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ===== ==== ===== 2003 551 21 316 10% 85% 34% 0.74 135 106 315 2004 379 8 311 9% 82% 37% 0.51 86 116 270 2005 577 15 291 10% 81% 34% 0.59 117 124 281 2006 550 11 262 10% 81% 31% 0.59 82 87 264 2007 420 4 229 9% 80% 28% 0.54 61 102 244 Giles' base skills (bb%, ct% and Eye) have largely remained intact from previous seasons, and a 28% hit rate helps explain the drop in average. But Giles' production didn't fade last season, it evaporated. The move to Colorado and away from Petco Park should benefit his offensive totals, but the Coors effect isn't what it used to be. Denver newspapers suggest he'll enter camp behind Jayson Nix (2B, COL) for the starting second base job. Also rumored to be in the mix are prospect Ian Stewart (3B, COL) and Clint Barmes (SS, COL). Obviously, Giles' value will be largely determined by his role. Even if he shows 2007 was an aberration and claims the starting job, his 2006 performance is probably a good indicator of his value. Explanations of the statistical acronyms used in this report These analyses currently appear weekly at BaseballHQ.com. Beginning in February, they will begin publishing daily and subscribers will get over 100 of them every week! EXPERT INSIGHT
During the off-season, Baseball HQ provides in-depth organizational reports for every club, highlighting the top 15+ prospects. These are updated all winter long as prospects change uniforms. Here is a sample from the newly stocked Florida Marlins. Read on... LIBRARY
RON SHANDLER'S MASTER NOTES Round One There has already been a lot of early buzz on internet message boards about how this year's first round players should be ranked. It seems like Alex Rodriguez has been getting the nod for the #1 seed more often than others, but there is still a good bit of disagreement. There are strong arguments for Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, even Jose Reyes. And there is a general agreement that David Wright and Jimmy Rollins should probably round out the top six, with guys like Miguel Cabrera and Chase Utley just missing that cut-off. Your opinion might vary slightly, but there has been a general consensus, more or less, about the players who will end up going in the first round. Howeer, once you determine that a player is first round caliber, the actual rankings hardly matter at all. Whether A-Rod goes first, or Hanley, or Albert, is nearly irrelevant. Let's look at the top pick for last few seasons. I am going to use the player rankings from the spring magazines. Although they lose out on timeliness, when it comes to first round picks, they pretty much have the pulse of the general community. In 2004, Alex Rodriguez was the consensus #1 pick. He actually finished 8th, with Vladimir Guerrero taking the top spot. In 2005, Carlos Beltran was the consensus #1 pick. He actually finished 65th. The #1 spot went to Albert Pujols, just over Derrek Lee. That year's #2 was A-Rod, who at least finished 3rd. In 2006, Albert Pujols was the consensus #1 pick. He actually finished 7th, with Jose Reyes taking the top spot. And finally last year, Albert Pujols was once again the consensus #1 pick. He finished 23rd, with Hanley Ramirez edging out A-Rod by pennies for #1. Taking it a step further, barely 40% of those projected in the top five finished that high, and if not for Alex Rodriguez, that percentage would be under 20%. So really, unless you have a top 3 seed and can grab A-Rod, all that matters is that you get a legitimate first round player in the first round. Everything else will take care of itself. MORE OF RON SHANDLER'S INSIGHTS...
Ron's full column appears every Friday at BaseballHQ.com.
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