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Copyright © 2010
Fantasy Baseball Ventures, Inc. ISSN# 1534-1542 Issue 10-4: 2/12/10 |
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MARKET TICKER
Melvin Mora (3B, COL) signed with the Rockies, and will likely see a lot of starts at third base against LH, given Ian Stewart's struggles against them last season. It remains to be seen what the 38-year-old Mora has left in the tank, though. In 2008, he posted a .987 OPS vs LH, with 12 home runs in just 156 at-bats. However, last year, he looked more like the Mora of '06-'07, as he had a .690 OPS vs LH, and a PX of 61 for the year. Moving to Coors sounds great, but his old park was actually better for RH home runs. Don't expect a return to his '08 level, or nearly as many at-bats as he's been getting.
With Mora gone, Miguel Tejada (3B, BAL) will now handle the majority of third base duties in Baltimore. His high contact, low power approach should yield similar results to recent seasons.
The Mets added to their depth by signing Mike Jacobs (1B, NYM) to a minor league deal. His disappointing 2009 season has been well-documented, but this could be a nice landing spot for him. It was just 2008 when he belted 32 home runs with a 171 PX, and he has an .830 career OPS vs RH. Both his park last year in Kansas City, as well as his new park, are neutral in terms of LH home runs.
As for his competition, it remains to be seen what kind of hitter Daniel Murphy (1B, NYM) will become. To this point, though, the Mets don't seem too committed to him, and his power has been uninspiring (100 PX in '08, 105 in '09). Fernando Tatis (1B, NYM) will be in the mix at first base as well. However, he will also be used at various other positions, and isn't an everyday player. His .309 BA and 130 PX during the second half of last year don't look sustainable. Our current playing time projections for the Mets have Murphy as the favorite, but that could change prior to the season.
With Jacobs out of Kansas City, it appears that Jose Guillen (DH, KC) has the edge for DH at-bats there. Injuries played a role in his struggles last season, but don't bet on a full rebound. With a sub-.300 OBP in three of the last four seasons, his skills are clearly in decline.
Explanations of the statistical acronyms used in this report
These analyses appear daily at BaseballHQ.com and subscribers get hundreds of them every week!
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FACTS & FLUKES
Could Ruiz be an undervalued asset at catcher in 2010?... After a promising 2006 season in which he hit a combined .289 with 20 HR between Triple-A and the majors, Carlos Ruiz (C, PHI) looked like he might be an up-and-coming top-tier catching talent. Three seasons later and Ruiz is a career .246 hitter who has largely disappointed fanalytic owners with underwhelming performances. His skills, however, paint a more optimistic picture:
Year BA bb% ct% Eye G/L/F PX hr/f xBA ==== ==== === === ==== ======== === ==== ==== 2006* .289 9 85 0.68 47/19/34 113 16% .286 2007 .259 10 87 0.86 46/18/36 91 5% .279 2008 .219 12 88 1.16 54/17/29 54 5% .248 2009 .255 13 88 1.21 42/19/39 111 8% .282 *includes MLE
Looking at his 2009 season and overall skill trends, there's a lot to like here:
- Ruiz's Eye has shown steady growth every year, and his 1.21 mark last season ranked 4th among all NL hitters with 300 or more AB.
- After a down 2008, he restored his 2009 PX and FB% to levels much more in line with his skill history -- only a mediocre 8% hr/f kept him from fully exploiting his power potential. He hit 26 doubles and 9 HR in 322 AB last year; if he can shift a few doubles to the HR column and pick up a little more playing time, it's not outrageous to think he could make a run at 15-20 HR.
- His BA came in nearly 30 points below his xBA, which even without any continued power growth should leave him fairly undervalued at the draft table.
- He took everything up a notch in the second half of 2009, posting a 1.32 Eye, 125 PX, 10% hr/f, and .299 xBA.
We talk a lot about the potential for a late career power surge in catchers, and at 31, Ruiz certainly fits that bill. And when you add in his elite plate discipline, undervalued BA skills, and homer-friendly home park, it's hard not to look at him and see the potential for a career year in 2010. That's purely speculation at this point; for now, just think of these points as reasons to consider going an extra buck or two on him.
Explanations of the statistical acronyms used in this report
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Baseball Forecaster
Stats, sabermetrics and projections for more than 900 players... Leading indicators, best bets, sleepers and gambles… The source used by Major League GMs, media and other fantasy services. Creating fantasy winners longer than anyone, since 1986. Minor League Baseball Analyst
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EXPERT INSIGHT
SCORESHEET GAMING: Fire it up
by John Mayne
Scoresheet drafts are fun; for many, these are the best parts of the Scoresheet year. But even more fun is the startup draft, that heady moment where you start to build a franchise toward its dynastic run, or dynastic ruin. Prior Scoresheet columns on this site have addressed how to handle later stages of existing drafts, but startups are their own animal. Read on...
LIBRARY
HEAD-TO-HEAD GAMING: What I learned in 2009
MARKET PULSE: Catcher ADP Analysis
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: Previewing Target Field
FANALYTICS: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
RON SHANDLER'S MASTER NOTES
Keepers
There is a poll currently on Baseball HQ that asks whether your primary league is a keeper league or a redraft league. If you were to guess the split of responses based only on the types of leagues promoted by the major media companies, you might think that all the world drafts from scratch every year.
After all, published ADPs and player values are all typically based on leagues starting with a blank slate. It's nice to know that Mock Draft Central has Zack Greinke ranked 27th, which is 3rd roundish, but anyone who owns him in a keeper league probably locked him up long ago given that his ADP last year was 144.
Keeper leagues require different decision-making processes. They require longer-term thinking. Jason Heyward is a horrible pick if you are in a 2010 redraft league; he is a prime commodity in a keeper league. "Failed" prospects are viewed very differently in each type of league. Jeremy Hermida is an end-game pick - if he's selected at all - in redrafts; in keeper leagues, the former #6-ranked prospect in 2006 might be more of a post-hype speculation.
In the poll, 77% of respondents said their primary league is a keeper league - that's our audience. And so we have launched a new regular feature on the site that examines the entire process for long-term decision-making in these leagues.
It's not just the decisions about who to keep and at what optimum price. It's about roster-building that takes place all year long. Those teams in rebuilding mode play the game from an upside-down perspective. Albert Pujols is worthless to them unless he can be traded for future commodities. Contending teams often have to make decisions that seem counter-intuitive. Even if you've had Stephen Strasburg on your roster from way back before he took his PSATs, you might need to trade him away this year if it buys you the missing piece of a championship. Because you never, ever, ever pass up a chance to win.
Lots of new decision-making processes to explore. We'll look at these in more depth in the coming months.
Ron's full column appears every Friday at BaseballHQ.com.
Ron's complete bio appears here.
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