(*) STARTERS: End-gamers 2014

The end game is where you can earn the most profit from your starting rotation, since those are the guys you pick up at the end of your drafts or for a token $1 bid.

Managing the end game isn't easy though. Not all guys are worth a $1 bid. Some have too much downside. Others don't have enough upside to justify having them on your roster.

An end-gamer in one league can be a sleeper or breakout target in another, so we'll provide you with a deep cross-section of players to focus on.

As a reminder, check out our scouting coverage for info on SP prospects worth targeting late in your drafts.

Let's start by looking at 2013 vs. 2012 skill surgers, 2013 first half to second half skill surgers, and guys who have shown strong skills in certain situations.

Click on the links below to jump to the data that interests you the most, or scroll down beneath the data to see writeups on a large group of SP in each league who warrant attention in your end game, especially in deep leagues.

2013 vs. 2012
- BPV
- Fastball velocity
- Swinging Strike rate (SwK%)

2013 - 2H vs. 1H
- BPV
- Fastball velocity
- Swinging Strike rate (SwK%)

2013 - One Split Away
- BPV LH/RH
- BPV None On/Runners On
- BPV Home/Road

Here are the SP whose BPV grew the most between 2012 and 2013:

  • BPV - 2013 vs. 2012*

    Name                League  BPV 2012  BPV 2013  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Ross, Tyson             NL        10       116  +105
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL        -9        88  + 97
    Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL        17        88  + 71
    Danks, John             AL         6        76  + 71
    Richards, Garrett       AL         6        71  + 65
    Harvey, Matt            NL       101       157  + 56
    Deduno, Samuel          AL       -10        46  + 56
    Harang, Aaron           AL        20        74  + 54
    Masterson, Justin       AL        55       101  + 46
    Chacin, Jhoulys         NL        10        53  + 44
    Darvish, Yu             AL        98       140  + 42
    Chatwood, Tyler         NL         6        43  + 37
    Quintana, Jose          AL        49        85  + 37
    Porcello, Rick          AL        69       104  + 36
    Buchholz, Clay          AL        54        89  + 35
    Liriano, Francisco      NL        63        97  + 34
    Minor, Mike             NL        69       102  + 33
    Delgado, Randall        NL        46        79  + 33
    Stults, Eric            NL        44        75  + 31
    Santana, Ervin          AL        59        89  + 30
    Sanchez, Anibal         AL       103       131  + 28
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL        71        98  + 27
    Iwakuma, Hisashi        AL        90       117  + 26
    *min 40 IP each season
    

These guys posted the largest four-seam fastball velocity increases between 2012 and 2013:

  • Four-Seam Fastball Velocity - 2013 vs. 2012*

    Name                League  FAv 2012  FAv 2013  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Morton, Charlie         NL      88.5      93.4  +4.9
    Eovaldi, Nathan         NL      94.1      96.1  +2.0
    Ross, Tyson             NL      92.3      94.0  +1.7
    Capuano, Chris          NL      86.7      88.4  +1.7
    Bailey, Homer           NL      92.4      94.1  +1.7
    Sanchez, Anibal         AL      91.5      92.8  +1.3
    Wainwright, Adam        NL      89.9      91.2  +1.3
    Sale, Chris             AL      91.3      92.6  +1.3
    Corbin, Patrick         NL      90.5      91.8  +1.3
    Pettitte, Andy          AL      87.8      89.0  +1.2
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL      88.1      89.1  +1.0
    Quintana, Jose          AL      90.2      91.2  +1.0
    Kelly, Joe              NL      92.7      93.7  +1.0
    Leake, Mike             NL      89.5      90.4  +0.9
    Kennedy, Ian            NL      89.2      90.1  +0.9
    Harvey, Matt            NL      94.6      95.4  +0.8
    Holland, Derek          AL      92.6      93.4  +0.8
    Hefner, Jeremy          NL      90.1      90.9  +0.8
    Hudson, Tim             NL      89.0      89.8  +0.8
    Cobb, Alex              AL      90.0      90.7  +0.7
    Arroyo, Bronson         NL      86.3      87.0  +0.7
    Santana, Ervin          AL      91.7      92.3  +0.6
    Happ, J.A.              AL      90.5      91.1  +0.6
    Alvarez, Henderson      NL      92.8      93.3  +0.5
    Chen, Wei-Yin           AL      91.0      91.5  +0.5
    Norris, Bud             AL      91.9      92.4  +0.5
    Cahill, Trevor          NL      89.7      90.2  +0.5
    Turner, Jacob           NL      91.1      91.6  +0.5
    Richard, Clayton        NL      90.6      91.1  +0.5
    Arrieta, Jake           NL      93.2      93.7  +0.5
    *min 40 IP each season
    

These SP saw their SwK% increase the most between 2012 and 2013:

  • Swinging Strike Rate - 2013 vs. 2012*

    Name                League   SwK% 2012   SwK% 2013  Diff
    ==================  ======   =========   =========  ====
    Ross, Tyson             NL         6%         13%   +6%
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL         6%          9%   +3%
    Sanchez, Anibal         AL        10%         12%   +3%
    Corbin, Patrick         NL         8%         11%   +3%
    Cueto, Johnny           NL         9%         11%   +2%
    Beckett, Josh           NL         9%         11%   +2%
    Hudson, Tim             NL         7%          9%   +2%
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL         9%         11%   +2%
    Nolasco, Ricky          AL         9%         11%   +2%
    Greinke, Zack           NL         9%         10%   +2%
    Holland, Derek          AL         8%         10%   +2%
    Minor, Mike             NL         8%         10%   +2%
    Danks, John             AL         7%          9%   +2%
    Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL         7%          9%   +2%
    Santana, Ervin          AL         8%         10%   +2%
    Colon, Bartolo          AL         5%          6%   +2%
    Cobb, Alex              AL         8%          9%   +2%
    *min 40 IP each season
    

Let's move on to looking at 2013 second half surgers.

Here are the SP whose overall skills surged the most between the first and second halves of 2013:

  • BPV 2013 - 2H vs. 1H*

    Name                League  BPV 1H  BPV 2H  Diff
    ==================  ======  ======  ======  ====
    Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL      48     134  + 87
    Niese, Jon              NL      32     108  + 76
    Fernandez, Jose         NL      88     163  + 75
    Bedard, Erik            AL      27      93  + 66
    Guthrie, Jeremy         AL      12      73  + 61
    Kazmir, Scott           AL      86     144  + 59
    Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL      75     129  + 54
    Cole, Gerrit            NL      72     126  + 54
    Dickey, R.A.            AL      47      99  + 53
    Chen, Wei-Yin           AL      36      86  + 50
    Lee, Cliff              NL     131     179  + 48
    Medlen, Kris            NL      75     123  + 47
    Tillman, Chris          AL      56     102  + 47
    Archer, Chris           AL      52      99  + 47
    Greinke, Zack           NL      73     116  + 43
    Arroyo, Bronson         NL      67     104  + 37
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL     109     147  + 37
    Peralta, Wily           NL      34      66  + 32
    Burnett, A.J.           NL     111     143  + 31
    Vargas, Jason           AL      50      78  + 28
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL     119     147  + 27
    Hamels, Cole            NL     104     129  + 26
    *min 40 IP each half
    

These guys saw their four-seam fastball velocities increase the most between the 1H and 2H of 2013:

  • Four-Seam Fastball Velocity 2013 - 2H vs. 1H*

    Name                League  FAv 1H  FAv 2H  Diff
    ==================  ======  ======  ======  ====
    Sanchez, Anibal         AL    91.9    93.8  +1.9
    Greinke, Zack           NL    91.1    92.3  +1.2
    Sabathia, C.C.          AL    90.9    92.1  +1.2
    Chen, Wei-Yin           AL    90.8    91.9  +1.1
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL    90.8    91.9  +1.1
    Lester, Jon             AL    91.9    93.0  +1.1
    Cashner, Andrew         NL    94.2    95.3  +1.1
    Kuroda, Hiroki          AL    90.3    91.3  +1.0
    Lynn, Lance             NL    92.1    93.1  +1.0
    Cobb, Alex              AL    90.3    91.3  +1.0
    Kluber, Corey           AL    92.8    93.8  +1.0
    Price, David            AL    92.8    93.7  +0.9
    Verlander, Justin       AL    93.6    94.5  +0.9
    Capuano, Chris          NL    88.1    89.0  +0.9
    Hellickson, Jeremy      AL    90.1    91.0  +0.9
    Sale, Chris             AL    92.4    93.3  +0.9
    Bailey, Homer           NL    93.7    94.6  +0.9
    Minor, Mike             NL    90.1    90.9  +0.8
    McAllister, Zach        AL    90.8    91.6  +0.8
    Gee, Dillon             NL    88.8    89.6  +0.8
    Danks, John             AL    88.9    89.7  +0.8
    Kazmir, Scott           AL    91.8    92.5  +0.7
    Latos, Mat              NL    92.2    92.9  +0.7
    Kennedy, Ian            NL    89.9    90.6  +0.7
    Peavy, Jake             AL    89.9    90.6  +0.7
    Garza, Matt             NL    92.8    93.4  +0.6
    Correia, Kevin          AL    90.1    90.7  +0.6
    Ogando, Alexi           AL    93.1    93.7  +0.6
    Chatwood, Tyler         NL    92.6    93.2  +0.6
    Stults, Eric            NL    86.7    87.3  +0.6
    Harvey, Matt            NL    95.2    95.8  +0.6
    Volquez, Edinson        NL    92.2    92.8  +0.6
    Niese, Jon              NL    89.9    90.4  +0.5
    Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL    90.5    91.0  +0.5
    Medlen, Kris            NL    88.7    89.2  +0.5
    Arroyo, Bronson         NL    86.9    87.4  +0.5
    Pelfrey, Mike           AL    92.0    92.5  +0.5
    Saunders, Joe           AL    89.5    90.0  +0.5
    Locke, Jeff             NL    90.1    90.6  +0.5
    *min 40 IP each half
    

The following SP induced a lot more swinging strikes in the second half of 2013 than in the first half:

  • Swinging Strike Rate 2013 - 2H vs. 1H*

    Name                League  SwK% 1H  SwK% 2H  Diff
    ==================  ======  =======  =======  ====
    Deduno, Samuel          AL       6%      10%   +4%
    Medlen, Kris            NL      10%      13%   +4%
    Fernandez, Jose         NL       9%      12%   +3%
    Tillman, Chris          AL       7%      10%   +3%
    Cashner, Andrew         NL       7%      10%   +3%
    Kazmir, Scott           AL       9%      12%   +3%
    Chen, Wei-Yin           AL       6%       9%   +3%
    Locke, Jeff             NL       7%      10%   +3%
    Nicasio, Juan           NL       6%       9%   +3%
    Cole, Gerrit            NL       8%      10%   +2%
    Koehler, Tom            NL       6%       8%   +2%
    Miley, Wade             NL       7%       9%   +2%
    Shields, James          AL       9%      11%   +2%
    De la Rosa, Jorge       NL       9%      10%   +2%
    Cobb, Alex              AL       9%      10%   +2%
    Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL       8%      10%   +2%
    Lee, Cliff              NL       9%      10%   +2%
    Garza, Matt             NL       9%      11%   +2%
    Lynn, Lance             NL       9%      11%   +2%
    Greinke, Zack           NL      10%      11%   +2%
    Estrada, Marco          NL      10%      12%   +2%
    Chatwood, Tyler         NL       6%       8%   +2%
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL       8%      10%   +2%
    Griffin, A.J.           AL       8%      10%   +2%
    *min 40 IP each half
    

Finally, let's find some guys who might be one split away from making a big impact.

These SP had the widest LH/RH BPV splits:

  • BPV 2013 - vs. LH/RH*

    Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. LH  BPV vs. RH  Diff
    ==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL     LHP      204          81     -123
    Saunders, Joe           AL     LHP      130          15     -115
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL     LHP      220         108     -112
    Sabathia, C.C.          AL     LHP      159          57     -101
    Corbin, Patrick         NL     LHP      176          78     - 98
    Maholm, Paul            NL     LHP      134          41     - 93
    Jimenez, Ubaldo         AL     RHP      125          42     - 82
    Gonzalez, Gio           NL     LHP      147          67     - 79
    Wilson, C.J.            AL     LHP      126          50     - 76
    Vogelsong, Ryan         NL     RHP       74           0     - 74
    Lester, Jon             AL     LHP      138          65     - 73
    Doubront, Felix         AL     LHP      108          37     - 70
    Pettitte, Andy          AL     LHP      120          56     - 64
    Minor, Mike             NL     LHP      145          88     - 57
    Moore, Matt             AL     LHP       87          31     - 56
    Miley, Wade             NL     LHP      110          58     - 52
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Lynn, Lance             NL     RHP       12         144     +132
    Lyles, Jordan           NL     RHP       -9         118     +127
    Masterson, Justin       AL     RHP       54         176     +122
    Rogers, Esmil           AL     RHP        7         119     +113
    Wheeler, Zack           NL     RHP      -17          94     +111
    Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP       53         155     +102
    McAllister, Zach        AL     RHP        2         103     +101
    Eovaldi, Nathan         NL     RHP       -9          91     +100
    Burnett, A.J.           NL     RHP       72         171     + 99
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP       73         167     + 94
    Hammel, Jason           AL     RHP       10          93     + 82
    Swarzak, Anthony        AL     RHP       41         123     + 82
    Medlen, Kris            NL     RHP       57         135     + 77
    Morton, Charlie         NL     RHP       39         116     + 77
    Marquis, Jason          NL     RHP      -54          22     + 76
    Davis, Wade             AL     RHP       14          89     + 75
    Maurer, Brandon         AL     RHP       42         117     + 75
    *min 40 IP vs. LH/RH
    

Here were the SP with the widest skill splits when pitching with the bases empty vs. runners on base in 2013:

  • BPV 2013 - None On/Runners On*

    Name                League  BPV None On  BPV Runners On  Diff
    ==================  ======  ===========  ==============  ====
    Capuano, Chris          NL       154            10       -145
    Harrell, Lucas          AL        32           -75       -107
    Collmenter, Josh        NL       122            17       -104
    Santana, Ervin          AL       123            32       - 91
    Porcello, Rick          AL       141            54       - 86
    Estrada, Marco          NL       141            56       - 85
    Nolasco, Ricky          NL       132            48       - 84
    Hernandez, Roberto      AL       127            45       - 82
    Pelfrey, Mike           AL        82             3       - 79
    Jackson, Edwin          NL       107            30       - 78
    Cobb, Alex              AL       137            60       - 76
    Santiago, Hector        AL        81             6       - 75
    Lackey, John            AL       138            69       - 69
    Sanchez, Anibal         AL       159            92       - 67
    Chacin, Jhoulys         NL        83            16       - 67
    Kennedy, Ian            NL        93            27       - 66
    Westbrook, Jake         NL        25           -41       - 66
    Nicasio, Juan           NL        75            -9       - 66
    Swarzak, Anthony        AL       112            47       - 65
    Bedard, Erik            AL        74             9       - 65
    Vogelsong, Ryan         NL        62            -1       - 64
    Minor, Mike             NL       126            63       - 62
    Alvarez, Henderson      NL        81            22       - 59
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL       152            94       - 58
    Cain, Matt              NL       103            46       - 57
    Davis, Wade             AL        77            22       - 55
    Villanueva, Carlos      NL        95            42       - 54
    Greinke, Zack           NL       117            64       - 53
    Kendrick, Kyle          NL        88            35       - 53
    Morton, Charlie         NL       109            57       - 52
    Cole, Gerrit            NL       127            75       - 52
    Chen, Bruce             AL        57             7       - 50
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Norris, Bud             AL        25            96       + 72
    Kelly, Joe              NL        12            79       + 67
    De La Rosa, Jorge       NL        16            71       + 56
    Guthrie, Jeremy         AL        17            62       + 45
    Straily, Dan            AL        37            80       + 42
    Locke, Jeff             NL        11            50       + 39
    Gee, Dillon             NL        62           100       + 38
    Volquez, Edinson        NL        32            69       + 37
    Zito, Barry             NL         2            38       + 36
    Chen, Wei-Yin           AL        53            83       + 30
    Koehler, Tom            NL        26            52       + 26
    Saunders, Joe           AL        31            56       + 25
    Verlander, Justin       AL        82           107       + 25
    *min 40 IP none on/runners on
    

Finally, these guys had the widest home/road BPV splits in 2013:

  • BPV 2013 - Home/Road*

    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Nova, Ivan              AL     117        35    - 82
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL     161        81    - 80
    Hughes, Phil            AL     107        34    - 72
    Arroyo, Bronson         NL     108        39    - 69
    Greinke, Zack           NL     128        60    - 68
    Doubront, Felix         AL      86        18    - 68
    Moore, Matt             AL      86        20    - 67
    Bedard, Erik            AL      75        11    - 64
    Westbrook, Jake         AL      28       -36    - 64
    Harrell, Lucas          AL      13       -50    - 63
    Kazmir, Scott           AL     145        83    - 62
    Iwakuma, Hisashi        AL     146        86    - 61
    Nicasio, Juan           NL      77        23    - 55
    Minor, Mike             NL     127        73    - 54
    Teheran, Julio          NL     131        77    - 54
    Blanton, Joe            AL     116        65    - 51
    Miller, Shelby          NL     118        68    - 50
    ----------------------------------------------------
    Hammel, Jason           AL       6        75    + 69
    Alvarez, Henderson      NL      28        96    + 67
    Mendoza, Luis           AL     -22        45    + 67
    Verlander, Justin       AL      62       127    + 65
    Miley, Wade             NL      38        92    + 54
    Peralta, Wily           NL      20        74    + 54
    Cole, Gerrit            NL      89       137    + 48
    Eovaldi, Nathan         NL      27        70    + 44
    Wood, Travis            NL      32        69    + 37
    Chacin, Jhoulys         NL      38        74    + 36
    Keuchel, Dallas         AL      65       101    + 35
    Hernandez, Roberto      AL      78       111    + 33
    Colon, Bartolo          AL      67       100    + 33
    Diamond, Scott          AL       9        39    + 30
    Tepesch, Nick           AL      72       101    + 29
    Gee, Dillon             NL      64        93    + 29
    Cain, Matt              NL      68        97    + 29
    Lyles, Jordan           NL      36        64    + 28
    Pettitte, Andy          AL      58        85    + 27
    *min 40 IP home/road
    

With a focus on guys who should be available in even the deepest of leagues, here are a bunch of end-game SP worth targeting late in your drafts.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) (ADP 476) brought some mechanical tweaks to his delivery to spring training. So far, he remains a work-in-progress: 7 IP, 8/5 K/BB. His biggest obstacle continues to be a lack of command. He had a 106/73 K/BB in 121 IP at AAA Columbus, then couldn't find the plate with CLE. At age 23, he remains a high-upside pitcher worth owning, but don't do so without a bench.

Carlos Carrasco (RHP, CLE) (ADP 619) will be a forgotten man in most leagues. His prospect star has faded due to Tommy John surgery, and at age 27, even his post-hype luster is wearing off. That said, he has shown flashes of being an impact SP when healthy. For example, with CLE in 2010: 7.7 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 57% GB%, 97 BPV. He reproduced those skills in a tiny sample with CLE late in 2013: 7.2 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 51% GB%, 89 BPV. His four-seam fastball averaged 95 mph too. He has a 9/1 K/BB in 7 IP so far this spring. With a current ADP of 619, he's being drafted way later than he should be.

Rubby de la Rosa (RHP, BOS) (ADP 703) has experienced a long road back after TJ surgery in 2011. With a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a strong change-up, and an ability to induce groundballs at a solid rate, he has the tools to make a splash. Just keep in mind that If he cannot find good command in a starting role, he's more likely to emerge in a late-inning role.

Samuel Deduno (RHP, MIN) (ADP 649) made some gains last year that are easy to dismiss. After all, his 1.6 Cmd in 2013 gives him very little margin for error. However, his SwK% jumped from a marginal 7% to a strong 9% between the 1H and 2H. And his near-60% GB% the last two seasons limits his blowup potential. He has an 8/4 K/BB in 9 IP so far this spring. At age 30, there's very little upside here, but he has some intrigue in the deepest of AL-only leagues.

Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) (ADP 333) won't be available as an end-gamer in prospect-savvy leagues, since he has one of the highest ceilings of any young SP in the AL. In a shallow league, that might not be the case. His skills with BAL in 2013 gave us a hint of his upside: 9.3 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 42% GB%, 120 BPV. He features a mid-90s fastball and a dominant splitter, and he doesn't show any LH/RH skill splits. There is a lot of profit potential here.

Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) (ADP 641) is another SP whose prospect star has faded. He showed signs of getting his career back on track in 2013 after TJ surgery: 87/33 K/BB in 101 IP. He's now two full years removed from TJ surgery. He posted a 3.2 Cmd against RH bats with MIN in 2013. His problems came against lefties. He had an ugly 0.9 Cmd against them. His very early spring results don't suggest that he has found a solution for them. He has a 0/2 K/BB in 4.2 IP vs. LH bats. That said, he's still a guy to stash in deep AL-only leagues.

Phil Hughes (RHP, MIN) (ADP 394) will benefit from moving from HR-friendly Yankee Stadium to Target Field in 2014. With two consecutive seasons of near-3.0 Cmd under his belt, Hughes has a good shot at posting his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2009.

Drew Hutchison (RHP, TOR) (ADP 624) has been one of the most impressive SP so far this spring. He has a fantastic 16/1 K/BB in 9 IP as well as a 2:1 GB/FB ratio. Hutchison emerged as a solid prospect at age 20 in 2011 when he posted an outstanding 171/35 K/BB in 149 IP across three levels in the minors. Then he went under the knife for TJ surgery in late 2012 and rehabbed his elbow for most of 2013. The sore back of J.A. Happ (LHP, TOR) and his chronic wildness should present Hutchison with a rotation opportunity early in the season. He's worth a speculation in very deep leagues.

Scott Kazmir (LHP, OAK) (ADP 263) will be ignored until the end game in many drafts, since most owners will feel that his best days are clearly behind him. They might not realize that he was the game's best SP in September 2013: 28 IP, 13.8 Dom, 1.3 Ctl, 39% GB%, 231 BPV. That surge was the result of a dominant slider and change-up. His new home park could be a big boon to a pitcher who has had a significant flyball tilt for most of his career. As long as you don't bank on him being a 180-IP pitcher, Kazmir makes for a premium end-game target.

Dallas Keuchel (LHP, HOU) (ADP 635) quietly put together a noteworthy skill base behind his ugly 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 2013: 7.2 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 56% GB%, 81 BPV, 3.72 xERA. His slider/cutter has become a dominating pitch for him. It helped him increase his SwK% from 6% in 2012 to 9% in 2013. With a current ADP of 635, you'll be able to get him for nothing. He's an attractive profit source in deep leagues.

Brian Matusz (LHP, BAL) (ADP 655) blossomed out of the BAL bullpen in 2013: 51 IP, 8.8 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 39% GB%, 100 BPV. His stuff in relief generated an extremely high 13% SwK%, so his Dom spike was no fluke. While much of that success came against same-sided batters, his skills against RH bats weren't horrible (1.9 Cmd, 46% GB%). He still wants to be a starter, and at age 27, he's still too young to not get another opportunity in a more high-profile role.

Brandon Maurer (RHP, SEA) (ADP 637) quietly put up these extremely strong skills in the second half of 2013: 41 IP, 8.4 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 47% GB%, 11% SwK%, 116 BPV. With a strong curveball and 93-mph fastball, Maurer has the tools to take a sustained step forward this season if he can keep LH bats from squaring up his fastball. With a tweak there and a healthy back, Maurer could make a splash in the SEA rotation in 2014.

Bud Norris (RHP, BAL) (ADP 452) will be viewed as a known commodity in many leagues, but he owns some nice skills in a few situations. He displayed this strong skill foundation against RH bats in 2013: 8.5 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 43% GB%, 98 BPV. His command erodes against LH bats. He also seems to lose concentration when the bases are empty. He had a terrible 25 BPV with the bases empty, compared to a 96 BPV with runners on base and an elite 111 BPV with runners in scoring position. Norris is a guy who could end up being a better fit in a late-inning role, since his slider has been his only true swing-and-miss pitch during the last two seasons.

Felipe Paulino (RHP, CHW) (ADP 534) has gotten off to an ugly start so far this spring, at least on the surface (8 IP, 9.72 ERA, 2.28 WHIP). Beneath those marks is a strong 11/2 K/BB, which reminds us that Paulino posted an 8.0+ Dom in the four seasons prior to his arm injury. He has some solid end-game value in strikeout leagues, but you'll need a bench with him.

Brad Peacock (RHP, HOU) (ADP 472) showed signs of becoming an effective starter in the second half of 2013 with HOU: 8.9 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 42% GB%, 92 BPV. And his skills really blossomed in September: 9.1 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 40% GB%, 12% SwK%, 123 BPV. If he can sustain the control gains he flashed in the second half, you could earn some nice profit on Peacock and his current 472 ADP.

Drew Pomeranz (LHP, OAK) (ADP 648) was a top prospect in the CLE system a few years ago when he posted a 119/38 K/BB in 101 IP between High-A and Double-A. Between a rocky 2012 and ugly short-stint with COL in 2013, he did post these nice skills at Triple-A in 2013: 96/33 K/BB in 85 IP. Given the rash of injuries to hit the OAK rotation this spring, Pomeranz could get an early shot at making an impact with his new club. He's a good stash if you have a bench.

Erasmo Ramirez (RHP, SEA) (ADP 402) was a premium breakout target at this time last season before a triceps issue set him back. His skills with SEA in his MLB debut in 2012 featured excellent command and a ton of swinging strikes: 7.3 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 12% SwK%, 100 BPV. He has a 10/2 K/BB in his first 12 IP this spring. Even if he doesn't start the season in the SEA rotation, he's someone who should be stashed in every deep league.

Todd Redmond (RHP, TOR) (ADP 649) is one of several pitchers vying for a spot in the TOR rotation. While Redmond lacks the upside and pedigree of some of his competitors, he did flash these intriguing second-half skills with TOR in 2013: 9.2 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 29% GB%, 102 BPV. RH batters had no chance against his slider. Redmond and his current ADP of 649 has some decent profit potential in deep leagues.

Esmil Rogers (RHP, TOR) (ADP 681) has an intriguing 12/4 K/BB in 9 IP over his first four spring games. While Rogers did not show overall skills (60 BPV) in 2013 that should reel you in, he did post these skills out of the TOR bullpen in 2012: 9.5 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 47% GB%, 103 BPV. And he dominated RH bats in a mix of starting and relief roles in 2013: 7.0 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 45% GB%, 119 BPV. With a mid-90s fastball, Rogers could end up as a darkhorse saves candidate given the significant health concerns of Casey Janssen (RHP, TOR) and Sergio Santos (RHP, TOR).

Anthony Swarzak (RHP, MIN) (ADP 698) is a long-reliever who could see his role expand in 2014, especially considering that he posted a 3.0+ Cmd in four separate months in 2013. RH bats had no chance against him: 7.3 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 57% GB%, 123 BPV. With an ADP of 701, he is going undrafted in most leagues. Buy him for nothing and use him to fill out the last slot or two of your staff in deep leagues.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Henderson Alvarez (RHP, MIA) (ADP 430) flashed a mid-90s fastball and high groundball rate a couple of years ago. After battling some shoulder problems, he rediscovered those skills with MIA in August 2013: 6.7 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 55% GB%, 91 BPV. His lack of more than one swing-and-miss pitch caps his short-term upside, but his heavy fastball makes him worthy of speculation in deep NL-only leagues.

Brett Anderson (LHP, COL) (ADP 403) will be forgotten about in most leagues given his injury history during the last three seasons. When healthy, Anderson has been able to sustain a 3.0+ Cmd and near-60% GB%, a combo that will mitigate the effects of his new home park. His 6.04 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 45 IP with OAK in 2013 was the result of a trifecta of trouble: 37% H%, 63% S%, 18% hr/f. If you can stomach his lack of durability, Anderson is a premium profit center heading into 2014.

Randall Delgado (RHP, ARI) (ADP 473) quietly posted a 70+ BPV in each month of 2013. Gopheritis (1.9 HR/9) held him back, in large part due to a 17% hr/f. Poor command of his sinker was the primary culprit. With three HR allowed in 11 IP so far this spring, it's a problem he hasn't solved yet. That said, his continued Cmd gains during the last three years (1.3, 1.8, 3.4) make him a good speculation in deep leagues.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, MIA) (ADP 367) featured the highest four-seam fastball velocity (96.1 mph) in MLB among SP with at least 40 IP. Digging deeper, he was very effective against RH bats: 7.0 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 46% GB%, 91 BPV. His bugaboo has been lefty bats. It's too early to tell if he has found a solution for them this spring, but even modest gains there could help him turn his raw stuff into skills and results this season.

Brad Hand (LHP, MIA) (ADP 699) has been one of the most dominating SP in MLB over the first 2-1/2 weeks of spring training: 15/2 K/BB in 12 IP. He was a top-10 prospect in the MIA system earlier this decade due to his fantastic curveball. Poor control in the minors and during a few auditions with MIA has halted his development. This spring sample is far too small to suggest that he has made sustainable gains there, but it suggests that he should be on your radar again.

Taylor Jordan (RHP, WAS) (ADP 610) has been one of the most impressive SP in spring camps so far in March: 13/0 K/BB in 10 IP. He totally stymied RH bats with WAS in 2013: 7.5 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 57% GB%, 119 BPV. His early results against LH bats are very encouraging: 5/0 K/BB in 3 IP. This after he couldn't strike out any LH batters in 2013 (2.0 Dom). With an extreme groundball tilt and more strikeout upside than it may seem, Jordan is an extremely attractive end-game target, especially considering how much he is being undervalued in the market.

Jordan Lyles (RHP, COL) (ADP 676) has posted a 5.00+ ERA and 1.40+ WHIP in all three of his MLB seasons, so he will be left undrafted in most leagues. Digging deeper, he quietly dominated RH bats in 2013: 7.5 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 48% GB%, 118 BPV. A poor 1.1 Cmd against LH bats has held him back. At age 23, he's still young enough to experience significant growth. His 7/1 K/BB in 8 IP in his first three games this spring is a small sample of the type of command upside he possesses.

Jenrry Mejia (RHP, NYM) (ADP 413) has endured a long road back from TJ surgery in May 2011. He had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow late in 2013, which puts into question if he will ever have the durability to stick as a starter. When healthy, he has a heavy, moving mid-90s fastball that induces both strikeouts and groundballs at a high rate. Mejia remains a good stash regardless of role if you have a bench.

Wily Peralta (RHP, MIL) (ADP 363) made some hidden gains in the second half of 2013: 7.7 Dom, 3.5 Ctl, 49% GB%, 69 BPV. With a mid-90s fastball and dominant slider, Peralta has the raw tools to become a dominant pitcher if he can make some gains against LH batters.

Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, SF) (ADP 440) dazzled with SF late in 2013: 8.8 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 30% GB%, 111 BPV. While he can be very hittable at times and gives up a lot of flyballs, his curveball gives him a legit strikeout pitch, and he's shown good control repeatedly over his career. If Ryan Vogelsong (RHP, SF) continues to be ineffective, expect Petit to get another rotation shot early in 2014.

Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) (ADP 366) was really effective in a stint with WAS in September 2013: 6.1 Dom, 1.2 Ctl, 51% GB%, 107 BPV. He was particularly dominant against RH bats: 7.6 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 50% GB%. His ADP is 250 slots better than higher-upside teammate Taylor Jordan, so Roark might actually be overvalued as an end-game pick. But there remains some profit potential here.

Craig Stammen (RHP, WAS) (ADP 623) came really close to getting a look in the WAS rotation in mid-2013. His skills in a variety of relief roles give him a really unique profile: 8.7 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 60% GB%, 114 BPV. He has posted a high 13%+ SwK% in consecutive seasons. He has two legit swing-and-miss pitches: slider (23% SwK%) and curveball (20% SwK%). And he posted a 2.5+ Cmd against both LH and RH batters. In a deep league, he remains a guy to stash on your staff regardless of his role.

Alex Torres (LHP, SD) (ADP 599) will start the season as a middle-reliever in the SD bullpen, similar to the role with TAM in 2013 that helped him produce these skills: 9.6 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 42% GB%, 109 BPV. He has a really good change-up that could help him transition back to a starting role. His roadblock always has been poor control, but it's a problem that won't be as exposed in the NL West. Again, buy the skills, ignore the role.

Carlos Torres (RHP, NYM) (ADP 654) likely will not start the season in the NYM rotation, which could cause owners to forget about the excellent skills he posted in a swingman role with NYM in 2013: 7.8 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 44% GB%, 115 BPV. The key for him is proving that his control gains were legit, as that is what held him back in the past. His early spring returns are encouraging (6 IP, 1 BB).

Jacob Turner (RHP, MIA) (ADP 494) can be labeled as a failed prospect at this point in his career, but there are reasons to keep him on your radar. He gained nearly one mph on his four-seam fastball in 2013. He missed a lot of bats in 2012. Nearly all of his problems come against LH bats. He had a near-2.0 Cmd against RH bats but an ugly 1.0 Cmd vs. lefties. At age 23, he remains a work-in-progress, but one worth stashing on your bench in a deep NL-only league.

 

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.