(*) STARTERS: BPV by time through lineup
Let's complete our in-season one-split-away series by looking at the skills posted by starting pitchers by time through lineup.
Our research has shown that a pitcher's stats erode the more time he goes through lineups during a game. This season has been no exception:
Time Through Lineup ERA WHIP =================== ==== ==== 1st 3.87 1.30 2nd 4.17 1.35 3rd 4.53 1.41
Their base skills by time through lineup also show consistent decline:
Time Through Lineup Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% BPV =================== === ==== ==== === === === === 1st 3.2 8.2 1.0 47% 31% 73% 86 2nd 2.9 7.1 1.1 47% 31% 72% 73 3rd 3.0 6.7 1.3 46% 31% 71% 65
The culprit is a loss of Dom, which could be explained by a loss of fastball velocity or deception during a game that makes hitters increasingly difficult to strike out as the game goes along.
Here are the starting pitchers with the most extreme BPV-by-time-through-lineup splits...
BPV by Time Through Lineup
------BPV by Time Through Lineup-----
Name League 1st 2nd 3rd 2nd vs 1st 3rd vs 1st
==================== ====== === === === ========== ==========
Norris, Bud NL 155 45 26 -111 -130
Moore, Matt AL 150 10 26 -140 -124
Capuano, Chris NL 163 64 52 - 99 -110
Harrell, Lucas NL 114 37 5 - 77 -109
Liriano, Francisco AL 116 68 9 - 47 -107
Happ, J.A. AL 111 126 6 + 15 -104
Gonzalez, Gio NL 140 112 39 - 28 -102
Latos, Mat NL 130 92 30 - 39 -101
Hammel, Jason AL 166 87 68 - 80 - 98
Lyles, Jordan NL 94 88 12 - 6 - 82
Strasburg, Stephen NL 188 147 109 - 41 - 78
Harang, Aaron NL 69 38 - 8 - 31 - 77
Maholm, Paul NL 119 81 43 - 38 - 76
Santana, Johan NL 117 93 41 - 25 - 76
Dickey, R.A. NL 163 165 87 2 - 76
Vogelsong, Ryan NL 110 67 36 - 42 - 73
Hudson, Tim NL 95 72 24 - 24 - 72
Lowe, Derek AL 51 - 9 -18 - 59 - 69
Miley, Wade NL 123 109 55 - 14 - 69
Garza, Matt NL 129 101 61 - 28 - 69
Worley, Vance NL 106 49 39 - 56 - 67
Lynn, Lance NL 132 81 67 - 51 - 65
Sabathia, C.C. AL 174 103 110 - 71 - 64
Wainwright, Adam NL 163 136 100 - 27 - 63
Weaver, Jered AL 142 29 80 -114 - 62
Lincecum, Tim NL 99 87 39 - 13 - 61
Billingsley, Chad NL 109 101 48 - 8 - 61
Saunders, Joe NL 120 39 60 - 81 - 60
Zimmermann, Jordan NL 116 128 57 + 12 - 59
Detwiler, Ross NL 66 104 8 + 38 - 58
Lohse, Kyle NL 95 96 37 + 1 - 57
Price, David AL 172 73 115 - 99 - 57
Chen, Bruce AL 91 87 35 - 4 - 56
Hanson, Tommy NL 93 48 37 - 45 - 56
Nova, Ivan AL 118 92 63 - 27 - 55
Samardzija, Jeff NL 132 94 78 - 38 - 54
Burnett, A.J. NL 124 123 70 - 1 - 54
Dempster, Ryan NL 109 78 56 - 30 - 53
Fister, Doug AL 125 145 73 + 19 - 53
Mendoza, Luis AL 56 23 4 - 34 - 52
Porcello, Rick AL 87 104 36 + 17 - 51
Sanchez, Anibal AL 108 114 57 + 6 - 51
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*Min 20 IP Each Time Through Lineup
Here is the select group of starting pitchers whose skills are significantly better the third time through lineups vs. the first time through...
BPV by Time Through Lineup
------BPV by Time Through Lineup-----
Name League 1st 2nd 3rd 2nd vs 1st 3rd vs 1st
==================== ====== === === === ========== ==========
Volquez, Edinson NL 10 31 99 + 21 + 89
Zito, Barry NL -35 45 26 + 80 + 62
Wilson, C.J. AL 25 73 82 + 48 + 57
Bedard, Erik NL 52 71 105 + 19 + 53
Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 17 2 68 - 15 + 50
Kendrick, Kyle NL 28 70 77 + 42 + 48
Rodriguez, Wandy NL 60 48 105 - 12 + 45
Doubront, Felix AL 59 90 89 + 31 + 30
Blanton, Joe NL 102 144 129 + 42 + 27
Guthrie, Jeremy AL 44 25 70 - 20 + 26
McDonald, James NL 74 44 99 - 29 + 26
Johnson, Josh AL 99 58 125 - 41 + 26
Sale, Chris AL 96 171 121 + 75 + 25
*Min 20 IP Each Time Through Lineup
AMERICAN LEAGUE
J.A. Happ (LHP, TOR) lost some attractiveness in mixed leagues after his trade to the AL East. And with a 4.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, he's probably owned in only the deepest of leagues anyway. But there is reason for optimism. His overall skills are good: 8.6 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 44% GB%, 89 BPV. They have been even better during the last month: 9.5 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 34% GB%, 113 BPV. Digging deeper, Happ owns a 111 BPV the first time through lineups and a 126 BPV the second time through. His skills fall off a cliff the third time through: 6.7 Dom, 5.0 Ctl, 44% GB%, 6 BPV.
Matt Moore (LHP, TAM) has flipped his 4.19 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from the first half to a 2.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in the second half. But his skills have not shown similar growth (68 BPV in 1H, 63 BPV in 2H). That said, his skills have been off the charts the first time through lineups: 11.9 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 37% GB%, 150 BPV. They fall apart after that. He has a 10 BPV the second time through and a 26 BPV the third time through. With some mid and late-game adjustments, he could quickly emerge as an elite SP.
Ivan Nova (RHP, NYY) looks like a rotation anchor the first time through lineups: 9.5 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 46% GB%, 118 BPV. His Dom loses some luster the second time through: 7.9 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 48% GB%, 92 BPV. It continues its descent the third time through: 6.8 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 47% GB%, 63 BPV.
Rick Porcello (RHP, DET) owns a nice 3.1 Cmd the first time through lineups and an even better 3.9 Cmd the second time through. It drops to a 1.6 Cmd the third time though. In addition, Porcello has been one of the most skilled SP in August: 6.5 Dom, 1.2 Ctl, 57% GB%, 121 BPV. A 36% H% and 21% HR/F have produced his 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this month. Porcello is an excellent buy low target and would take a huge step forward with some improved late-game command.
Chris Sale (LHP, CHW) has received a lot of attention due to his workload in his first full professional season as a SP. Truth be told, his in-game skills are better late in games than early. His BPV by time through lineup: 96, 171, 121. His 171 BPV the second time through lineups is the highest among all qualified SP. His 121 BPV the third time though ranks behind only Felix Hernandez (RHP, SEA) and Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, NYY) among qualified AL SP. Keep riding him.
Anibal Sanchez (RHP, DET) has an elite 108, 114 BPV the first and second time through lineups. He loses command the third time through: 7.8 Dom, 4.0 Ctl, 47% GB%, 57 BPV. While you may be avoiding him due to the 5.19 ERA and 1.63 WHIP he owns since July 1, his base skills since that date have been really good: 7.3 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 44% GB%, 92 BPV. A 38% H% during the period has torpedoed his surface stats.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, LAA) is one of the rare starting pitchers whose skills get better within a game. He can't find the plate the first time through lineups: 7.2 Dom, 5.1 Ctl, 56% GB%, 25 BPV. He starts to harness his control and becomes more electric the second time through: 8.6 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 45% GB%, 73 BPV. His skills (82 BPV) get even better the third time through.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Ross Detwiler (LHP, WAS) has a 66 BPV the first time through lineups and a nifty 104 BPV the second time through. His Dom disappears the third time through: 2.9 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 56% GB%, 8 BPV. Detwiler would be able to sustain a 6.0+ Dom and solidify himself as a mid-rotation SP if he could maintain his Dom late into games.
Mat Latos (RHP, CIN) has a nifty 130 BPV the first time through lineups and a 92 BPV the second time through. All of his struggles have come the third time he goes through lineups. He has a 6.69 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in that situation, and his base skills decline significantly: 6.0 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 50% GB%, 30 BPV.
Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) looks like his former self the first (99 BPV) and second (87 BPV) times through lineups. He falls apart the third time through: 7.6 Dom, 4.5 Ctl, 46% GB%, 39 BPV. This, along with Lincecum's inability to pitch effectively with runners on base, are the two primary reasons for his struggles this season.
Jordan Lyles (RHP, HOU) owns a 94 BPV the first time through lineups and an 88 BPV the second time through. He has imploded the third time through lineups (11.88 ERA, 2.44 WHIP), and his skill erosion explains why: 5.8 Dom, 4.3 Ctl, 2.2 HR/9, 47% GB%, 12 BPV. With improved stamina and a new approach while pitching from the stretch, Lyles would take a big step forward.
Bud Norris (RHP, HOU) has some of the best skills in the game the first time he goes through lineups: 11.7 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 45% GB%, 155 BPV. Both his Dom and Ctl get much worse the second (45 BPV) and third times (26 BPV) through. Norris has a lot more upside than his 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP suggest.
Edinson Volquez (RHP, SD) really struggles the first (10 BPV) and second (31 BPV) times he goes through lineups. His stuff turns electric the third time through: 10.4 Dom, 4.4 Ctl, 53% GB%, 99 BPV. Volquez would be a 3.50 ERA target with improved focus early in games.
For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.
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