RESEARCH: Sustainability of dollar value

Introduction

One of the arguments that arose in our recent series on “The Prospect Myth” was that trading prospects for “established players” was no sure thing, because there are likewise no guarantees projecting value from past record—even at the MLB level.

This seemed like a legitimate critique, so we decided to examine just how “projectable” a player’s value is based on his past performance.

Method

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.