(*) NFBC: Using The ADPs - Start with the Top 100
One of the best pre-draft tools of late is Average Draft Position (ADPs) from existing pay leagues. In the past, mock draft sites provided the best ADPs for fantasy players, but now contest sites like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) are generating even better ADPs and earlier ADPs from participants who pay between $125 and $1,000 per entry. These are the ADPs you want to follow.
Why? Because some of the most die-hard fantasy players in our industry are generating the lists while competing for real cash prizes. They are doing the legwork and the projections for over 700+ players and letting everyone know the values of these players. You don’t have to follow the ADPs to be successful in 2012, but they are certainly a road map you should be aware of before your drafts.
The ADPs are a great pre-draft source, but they certainly won’t lead to instant success. More than half of the players in the Top 15 ADP won’t be among the Top 15 producers from 2012. In fact, only 8 of last year’s Top 15 are back in the Top 15 this year. They include Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez and Evan Longoria. A total of 19 of this year’s Top 30 (63.3%) were in the Top 30 last year.
Still, some unknowns before 2011 are emerging in 2012. Brett Lawrie’s ADP is 44 after starting last year in Triple-A. He’s being drafted ahead of Alex Rodriguez, and rightly so. Desmond Jennings has an ADP of 55 and keeps rising with each subsequent draft, having gone 45th and 47th in our last two NFBC drafts.
Other trends to follow include:
Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) was a potential Top 3 pick before news of his possible 50-game suspension hit the airwaves. His ADP dropped to 41, but since rumors came out that his suspension may be lessened or nullified, his ADP has jumped to 30 and he’s going in the Top 25 in most recent NFBC drafts. The final verdict about his possible suspension should come in the next week and it will change up the first three rounds of all NFBC drafts.
While no starting pitcher is going in the first round, you will find as many as five SPs going in the second round: Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LA), Justin Verlander (RHP, DET), Roy Halladay (RHP, PHI), Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) and Cliff Lee (LHP, PHI). It’s possible that 11 starting pitchers could go in the Top 50 this year, a new trend after the Year of the Pitcher.
Carl Crawford (OF, BOS) has an ADP of 31, but since the announcement of his wrist injury he’s been going anywhere from 47th to 70th. His stock is on the decline and it could fall out of the Top 40 very soon.
There are many more trends to follow from these pay leagues, but the best place to start is with our Top 100. The first round has been pretty much established with the 15 players below and even the Top 30 looks pretty set. Take a look at our current Top 100 and be prepared for similar results when you sit down at the draft table in March or April:
NFBC Top 100:
(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s Hall of Fame. For more information on the NFBC, contact him at email@example.com or go to nfbc.stats.com).