BaseballHQ.com

"Year-to-year player performance does not inherently follow a smooth trend for any player. Rather, surges are followed by declines, and declines by surges, even as overall growth may still occur. These swings are constant and far wilder than we'd care to admit. The greater the movement in one direction, the higher the likelihood of a regression or normalization the following year. Bill James nailed this all years ago."
—Me, sometime in 2011

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