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Need player projections? Pick up any one of a dozen spring magazines or browse over to any fantasy baseball web site. But what you're really getting are three-year averages, subjective opinions or canned, inert numbers. Real performance forecasting is a living, breathing process that looks beyond faulty statistics and focuses on the analysis of component skills and leading indicators. That's what we do at Baseball HQ; it's a process that has been the foundation of our publications since 1993.

In 2011, this process produced a set of projections that could have made the difference in your fantasy season. Here is a look at how the analysis works, and some of the results...

2011 Batters

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Pedro Alvarez gets drafted late in Round Six (#86), but you throw money away taking him there. The risk associated with his first full year in the majors: 66% contact rate with a .241 xBA. (Beagle)
2010: 16-64-.256 in 347 AB
2011: 4-19-.191 in 235 AB

Alex Avila: Nice walk rate, but mediocre ct% and subpar speed limit BA potential. He hit the ball quite hard (38% hard hit rate and xPX of 133 in 2010), so if he can hit a few more FB... UP: 20 HR (Macey)
2010: 7-31-.228 in 294 AB
2011: 19-82-.295 in 464 AB

Jose Bautista: We, for one, think that Jose Bautista's power is real to the tune of 37 projected homers. Bautista's hit rate was only 24% while his contact rate leaped to 80%. That means Bautista's batting average should rise in 2011, even if he doesn't hit 54 homers again. (Beagle)
2010: 54-124-.260
2011: 43-103-.302

Carlos Beltran was a Top 15 player as recently as 2008. His 2nd half performance in 2010 showed little skills erosion despite the .255 BA (.275 xBA). Anything he'll give you is profit; just tuck an extra OFer onto your reserve list. (Shandler)
2008: 27-112-25-.284
2009: 10-48-11-.325
2010: 7-27-3-.255
2011: 22-84-4-.300

Peter Bourjos' failure to appear in the ADP Top 300 is due to 1) his MLB BA issues and 2) his potentially iffy PT after LAA's acquisition of Vernon Wells and the impending arrival of Mike Trout. But Bourjos is already an elite defender with elite 173 Spd and developing pop (113 PX). And while he needs to work out his patience (3%) and pitch selection, an 84% ct% and .291 career minor league BA say that some of these problems are temporary. If he grows his BA to .250, he'll be a 2011 fantasy asset in many leagues -- and he's likely to get plenty of PT rope in his efforts. (Thompson)
2010: 6-15-10-.204 in 181 AB
2011: 12-43-22-.272 in 502 AB

John Buck had an uncharacteristic 34% hit rate, so expect a batting average regression. Expect his homers to fall, too, as the Rogers Centre inflated RH homers by 16% and Sun Life stadium reduces them by 8%. (Beagle)
2010: 20-66-.281

2011: 16-57-.227

Allen Craig: doesn't have outstanding skills, but his minor league track record says "professional hitter" as his .308/.370/.518 career line attests. Craig produced for STL last August after finally seeing extended MLB PT. He's a barely adequate defender who projects as the first man off the bench on a team testing 35-year-old Lance Berkman's gimpy leg in RF. (Thompson)
2010: 4-18-.246 in 114 AB
2011: 11-40-.315 in 200 AB

Coco Crisp has clearly demonstrated that, when healthy, he can be a highly-productive speed source with solid plate skills. Looking toward 2011, given a full season of health -- perhaps a dubious assumption in oft-injured Crisp's case -- in an OAK uniform, the skills here hint at the potential of a 50-SB season. (Kephart)
2010: 290 AB, 32 SB
2011: 531 AB, 49 SB

Alcides Escobar: Forget his .235 BA last year, he's done better. He's moving from a team that didn't run to one that will. With an 86% contact rate and 150+ Spd score, this has the makings of huge SB upside. (Shandler)
2010: 4-41-10-.235
2011: 4-46-26-.254

Danny Espinosa possesses power upside and should get plenty of at-bats, but his low batting average could hinder his value. (Beagle)
2010: 6-15-0-.214 in 103 AB
2011: 21-66-17-.236 in 573 AB

Carlos Gonzalez: It's tough not to lust after him, but Gonzalez really has nowhere to go but down from here. His BPI spike was insane and his 39% hit rate (45% in the 2nd half) is unsustainable. My guess is that he goes 28-100-20-.295, which is still wonderful but not enough to justify what you are going to have to pay. (Shandler)
2010: 34-117-26-.336
2011: 26-92-20-.295

Alex Gordon has gotten some positive reinforcement this spring from new manager Ned Yost. One of the things that serves the speculative mindset well is a very long memory. We are still mindful of Gordon's former prospect status, and haven't yet given up on him delivering on a good portion of his one-time upside. It's a fairly widely-held opinion that Gordon hasn't been done any developmental favors by his organization, perhaps an outsider coming in as manager and putting in some work (both physical and mental) with Gordon can salvage his career. (Murphy)
2010: 8-20-1-.215 in 242 AB
2011: 23-87-17-.303 in 611 AB

Curtis Granderson: Move to NY helped PX and hr/f; injuries cut back on the ABs. Traditionally struggles vs LHP, but some 2H tweaks led to better numbers. If he stays healthy and holds the gains vLH... UP: 30 HR, 20 SB again. (Adler)
2010: 24 HR, 12 SB
2011: 41 HR, 25 SB

Franklin Gutierrez: Couldn't hold 2009 BA gains (as xBA foretold), but SB spike propped up value. Despite near- average Spd, 25/3 SB/CS says he's a good base-stealer. But xBA says BA hasn't hit bottom yet, which would cut SB opps. (Murphy)
2010: .245 BA, 25 SB
2011: .224 BA, 13 SB

J.J. Hardy: A 21st-round ADP of #365, a $1 end-gamer if there ever was one. But his BHQ projection is 20-66-1-.288-73, worth about $11. Hardy hit 50 total HR and 61 doubles in 2007-08, with a combined PX around 110 and a .280 BA fully supported by his xBA skills. Then he suffered a wrist injury, and sagged to just 17 total HR and 35 doubles in 2009-10. As he heads into his age-29 season, his power should benefit from moving to Baltimore: Camden Yards increases RHB HR by 21%, while Minnesota's Target Field decreases RHB HR by 34%. And the other parks in the AL East likewise play friendlier to HR hitters than some of the cavernous yards in the AL Central. A $1 endgame wager on his wrist being fully healed is not a bad bet. (Davitt)
2010: 6-38-.268 in 340 AB
2011: 30-80-.269 in 527 AB

Chris Heisey: PRO: plus PX and FB bias point to a legit power source, especially in friendly home park. CON: poor ct% kills Avg. Speculate in the end-game. (Murphy)
2010: 8-21-.254 in 201 AB
2011: 18-50-.254 in 279 AB

Ryan Howard: Long thought of as having a skill profile that won't age well; is it true? Lots of low HR totals in the 'Year of the Pitcher' but PX normalized many of them. Not here. Don't assume a return to 40 HR level. In fact: DN: -30 HR (Paley) You read it here first: 25 HR, .250 will be a stretch this year. At 31, old player skills take over. (Shandler)
2009: 45 HR, .279
2010: 31 HR, .276
2011: 33 HR, .253

Matt Kemp: The Good: Rising PX, hr/f, age 26. The Bad: Declining ct%, speed, seemingly bailed in 2nd half. Future bleak because he doesn't have the "grit and wily veteranship of S.Podsednik." We disagree. UP: 35 HR (Macey)
2009: 26-101-34-.297
2010: 28-89-19-.249
2011: 39-126-40-.324

Paul Konerko represents another reminder that we overpay for a young star off a career season but fail to expect a repeat from a veteran. While Konerko will regress a bit, his .301 xBA and 169 PX reveal the potential to exceed his 2009 line. (Beagle)
2009: 28-88-.277
2010: 39-111-.312
2011: 31-105-.300

Nick Markakis: Plate-skills (bb%, Eye, xBA) encouraging, but power erosion at 26 continues to baffle. FB/PX trends say a lot. Has to rebound some, but 10 SB more likely that 20 HR at this point. (Hershey)
2010: 12-60-7-.297
2011: 15-71-12-.281

Joe Mauer: Before you rush out and draft him in the first round, remember he has only topped 13 homers once (and that was in the Metrodome). Mauer has never topped 100 runs scored or RBIs and failed to steal seven bases the last three years... combined. He is a great player, going 20th on average, but overplaying the scarcity card by drafting him in Round 1 puts you in a deep offensive hole. (Beagle)
2009: 28-96-.365
2010: 9-75-.327
2011: 3-30-.287

Cameron Maybin's power has only been seen in flashes at the big-league level: a 103 PX in 109 2nd-half ABs last year, a 118 PX over 176 ABs with FLA in 2009. Moving to PETCO Park for 2011, potential for a power spike seems limited. His speed skills are much more legitimate, highlighted by an elite 178 Spd in 2010. Consistent contact is the missing element to a Maybin breakout. If it emerges, his breakout could take more of a 15 HR-40 SB shape, but that would be more than enough to satisfy those who invest in him this season. (Murphy)
2010: 8-28-9-.234 in 291 AB
2011: 9-40-40-.264 in 516 AB

Mike Morse impressed us last year, particularly his 1H-2H PX spike from 107 to 166, in 100 more ABs. But we were still unable to give him a huge thumbs-up due to this limited sample and the iffy PT outlook of a 29-year-old RHB platoon hitter. The latter is being resolved by Morse's 9 HR in 61 March AB, putting the lie to the meme that "spring training means nothing." In this particular case, Morse's pre-season numbers mean that he's earned more AB to begin 2011 while hinting that his 2010 2H power surge could be for real. Another positive here is that Morse has hit five of these HR against RHP. You can wait for in-season confirmation, but you may be too late by then. And if the price is right, Morse is certainly worth a keeper flyer if only for 2011. (Thompson)
2010: 15-41-.289 in 266 AB
2011: 31-95-.303 in 522 AB

Dustin Pedroia: With his improving power skills on an already strong BA foundation and a surrounding team that should make another 100-RS season a breeze, Pedroia should again be among the AL's top second-sackers. And with a few breaks, a 20/20 season is not out of the realm of possibility. (Hershey)
2010: 12-41-9-.288 with 53 RS in 302 AB
2011: 21-91-26-.307 with 102 RS in 635 AB

Colby Rasmus goes far earlier than we would consider him. He faces questions about his inexperience and relationship with the one making out the lineup card. His 36% hit rate, .254 xBA, and 68% contact rate make us cautious. (Beagle)
2010: 23-66-12-.276
2011: 14-53-5-.225

Pablo Sandoval: The headliner of the interesting weight changers has to be Sandoval, who lost nearly 40 lbs. this offseason. As was said recently at a First Pitch Forum event, players who display Sandoval's age-22 skill set don't just lose those skills at age 23. (Murphy)
2010: 13-63-.268 in 563 AB
2011: 23-70-.315 in 426 AB

Ian Stewart seems to be an extreme reach at the end of Round Eight (#119). Stewart saw his PX and flyball rates drop as he focused on improving his contact rate to a whopping 71% in 2010. He goes one hundred spots too high. Nominate him! (Beagle)
2010: 18-61-5-.256 in 386 AB
2011: 0-6-3-.156 in 122 AB

Ryan Theriot: Value comes from BA and SB but note small warning signs... Spd in slow decline... Bidding on past 20 SB seasons now risky business. (Nichols)
2009: 7-54-21-.284
2010: 2-29-20-.270
2011: 1-47-4-.271

B.J. Upton will hit 25 HRs. Upton simplified his swing in the off-season. Reducing the number of movements in his swing could allow him to turn on the ball faster and hit more HR. (Beckey)
2008: 9 HR
2009: 11 HR
2010: 18 HR
2011: 23 HR

Matt Wieters' PX finally cracked 100 in the 2nd half last year and his contact rate cracked 80%. You just know that something exciting is going to be coming soon. (Shandler)
2010: 11-55-.249
2011: 22-68-.262

Ben Zobrist's power should return with his hr/f returning to normal. A low 28% hit rate and .258 xBA also suggest a higher batting average than the .238 he posted in 2010. (Beagle)
2009: 27-91-17-.297
2010: 10-75-24-.238
2011: 20-91-19-.269

2011 Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo: Two seasons of sub-4.00 ERAs make him seem more desirable than he really is. But depressed hit rates helped hide his barely-5.0 strikeout rates, and his groundball rates that are not high enough to offset the deficiencies in dominance. His ERA heads north in 2011. (Shandler)
2009: 3.84 ERA, 45 BPV
2010: 3.88 ERA, 45 BPV
2011: 5.01 ERA, 50 BPV

Antonio Bastardo is behind Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras. Those are some excellent relievers, so Bastardo is going to have to excel and hope for problems ahead of him. Lidge has had some inconsistency in the past. Madson has had some injuries. Contreras was closing for a bit in 2010 while the other two were out. So there is a chance that Bastardo will get to show what he can do. The skill set is superb--a 9.4 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB put him among the elite in the NL. Here is an end-game option who could yield a sizeable profit if he is given a chance. (Dennis)
2010: 4.34 ERA, 0 saves, 2 holds
2011: 2.63 ERA, 8 saves, 17 holds

Josh Beckett: Missed two months with back strain; injury probably affected him all year. xERA, BPV show that while he wasn't as good as 2007-09, skills were still solid. With h% reversion and full health, he could be a bargain. (Adler)
2010: 6-6, 5.78 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
2011: 13-7, 2.89 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Trevor Cahill was another groundballer riding the marginal-skills tightrope. Pay for nothing more than a 3.75 ERA. (Shandler)
2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA

Phil Coke: Reports say he's going to transition this unremarkable skill set into a starting role for 2011. Lack of L/R split is a good sign for that change, but unless he can allow only 2 HR per 65 IP again, expect ERA over 4.00. (Murphy)
2010: 3.76 ERA in 65 IP
2011: 4.47 ERA in 109 IP

Johnny Cueto: Maturating before our eyes? Concurrent Ctl/Dom declines suggest he's pitching, not just throwing. 2H GB% and Cmd spikes suggest he might have found the right formula. If so... UP: 3.25 ERA. (Murphy)
2010: 3.64 ERA
2011: 2.31 ERA

Wade Davis: Monthly BPV trend: 9, -7, 60, 43, 46, 67. Great sign to see rookie adjust and improve as year went on. But 2H xERA isn't fully convinced. Mild FB bias says HR issues are legit, Dom is borderline. Don't overbid. (Murphy)
2010: 4.07 ERA
2011: 4.45 ERA

Kyle Farnsworth generated groans whenever his name came up at the First Pitch Forums, but he has legitimate saves potential. He's posted 100+ BPVs the past two years and Joe Maddon might opt for experience over the other sexy pick, Jake McGee. (Shandler)
2010: 0 saves, 3.34 ERA, 100 BPV
2011: 25 saves, 2.19 ERA, 122 BPV

Ryan Franklin: Used pinpoint Ctl to drive Cmd spike and hold closer role for 2nd straight year. But also 2nd straight year of dramatic 2H fade, which along with poor Dom continues to suggest that he isn't long for the closer role. (Paley)
2010: 3.46 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 Sv
2011: 8.46 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 1 Sv

Kevin Gregg: Career high in saves, but reasons not to count on a repeat: 2.0 Cmd a struggle, xERA consistently ~4.00, fortunate hr/f history, notable 2H skills slide. Closer on 2nd tier team at best. (Hershey)
2010: 37 saves, 3.51 ERA
2011: 20 saves, 4.61 ERA

Zack Greinke is a prime target this draft season. Despite his apparent "off year" in 2010, his BPIs put him among baseball's elite pitchers and his current injury is going to depress his price somewhat. I think it is only a slight leap of faith to say you could get 28-30 Cy Young-caliber starts at a pretty nice discount. (Shandler)
2010: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 97 BPV
2011: 16-6, 3.83 ERA, 151 BPV in 28 starts

Matt Guerrier: Again, fortunate h% inflated his value. Again, in the top 3 in AL appearances (3rd yr in a row). GB rate a plus, but Dom trend (esp. 2H) points to a tired pitcher. Will probably get a bunch of holds -- and one save. Again. (Hershey)
2010: 74 games, 3.17 ERA, 23 holds, 1 save
2011: 70 games, 3.99 ERA, 13 holds, 1 save

Cole Hamels: Emotional maturation as promising as ERA rebound. Only poor run support (PHI scored 2 runs or less in 8 of his losses) tamed otherwise brilliant season. Phenomenal 2H (GB, Cmd, xERA) hints at further upside. (Hershey)
2010: 12-11, 3.06 ERA, 3.5 Cmd, 116 BPV
2011: 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 4.4 Cmd, 126 BPV

Joel Hanrahan: Thrived as co-closer when given shot, but this was a season-long surge. Elite Dom still on the rise but gains in GB% and Ctl were the real keys. And xERA says it should have been better. Closer inexperience the only drawback. (Hershey)
2010: 6 Sv, 3.62 ERA
2011: 40 Sv, 1.83 ERA

Aaron Harang has had several down years in terms of ERA, but has mostly maintained his BPIs. One of his biggest Achilles Heels is his flyball rate - and Great American Ballpark was unkind - but that weakness should be far less evident in PETCO. If he goes 12-9, 3.50, it would not surprise me in the least. (Shandler)
2010: 9-6, 5.32 ERA
2011: 14-7, 3.64 ERA

Dan Haren: Fickle hr/f and H% in the 1H hid the fact that his skills align exactly to 2008-09. More walks slowed his 2H, but looks like a blip. Elite Cmd, xERA and BPV consistency all point to an easy return to the $20+ level. (Hershey)
2010: 12-12, 3.91 ERA, $9
2011: 16-10, 3.17 ERA, $26

David Hernandez: Missed most of Aug w/ ankle sprain that interrupted tidy move to bullpen: As SP: 5.7 Dom, 1.0 Cmd; As RP: 10.9 Dom, 3.5 Cmd. If Dom sticks... UP: 3.50 ERA, 15 saves (Hershey)
2010: 2 Sv, 4.31 ERA
2011: 11 Sv, 3.38 ERA

Ubaldo Jimenez's second half performance teamed with a 27% hit rate and 75% Strand on the year represent too much risk. (Beagle)
2010: 19-8, 2.88 ERA
2011: 10-13, 4.68 ERA

Clayton Kershaw: There are signs he may be prepared to solidify a position among the ranks of the game's elite starting pitchers... This appears to be the profile of a young hurler carving a path toward elite status. Kershaw's best is likely yet to come. (Kephart)
2010: 2.91 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 90 BPV
2011: 2.28 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 137 BPV

Craig Kimbrel is the named co-closer with lefty Jonny Venters for Atlanta. Venters had a fantastic year in 2010 setting up Billy Wagner. Kimbrel was great late in the season with absurd strikeout numbers. Going into 2011, the question for Kimbrel has been whether he could command the strike zone or whether his wildness would get the best of him. This spring, Kimbrel has a 13/4 K/BB in 11.1 innings--so far so good. Kimbrel just needs to keep throwing strikes. If he does, he should get the lion's share of the save chances for Atlanta this year. (Dennis)
2011: 46 saves, 2.10 ERA (Venters: 5 saves, 1.84 ERA)

Kyle Lohse is reportedly throwing much better than last spring (when he was returning from a forearm injury). Pre-2010, Lohse was a fairly consistent 50-60 BPV pitcher, which is right around our "tolerable" threshold. He dipped way below that line last year, but if we give him a health-related pass, he could be an end-game option with some upside at the draft table this month. (Murphy)
2010: 4-8, 6.55 ERA
2011: 14-8, 3.39 ERA

Cory Luebke was another Opening Day survivor due primarily to issues in the SD rotation. Thanks to some early-season Padre off-days, Luebke begins 2011 as a long reliever, which won't impress some fantasy owners. But the 26-year old Luebke has a solid GB / Ctl track record as an SP that will play well in PETCO Park -- and he'll be the first to benefit when the off-days disappear and the Padres need an entire rotation. Given Mat Latos' iffy shoulder situation and Wade LeBlanc's seeming inability to survive on the road, his 2011 rotation opportunity will likely come sooner than later. (Thompson)
2011: 9-6, 3.29 ERA in 140 IP

Joe Nathan: Given a full year to recover from TJS, he should be ready to close again in March. Due to age and layoff, a slow start would not surprise. But an eventual return to form wouldn't, either. (Hershey)
2009: 2.10 ERA, 151 BPV and 47 saves
2011 2nd half: 3.29 ERA, 121 BPV and 14 saves

Jonathan Papelbon is re-introducing a slider to his arsenal, after de-emphasizing the pitch in recent years. The reduction in slider use had correlated nicely with Papelbon's reduced effectiveness. After whispers in Boston over that time that the team's unwillingness to sign Papelbon to a long-term contract had led him to reduce the use of his slider for fear of injury, that theory gains additional credibility now that Papelbon is entering a contract year. Full use of his arsenal this year will help him garner maximum free-agent dollars next winter, and may create a profit opportunity in 2011. (Murphy)
2010: 3.90 ERA, 37 Saves, 98 BPV
2011: 2.94 ERA, 31 Saves, 197 BPV

Chris Perez: Make no mistake, Perez is the closer heading into Opening Day. But even if the saves pile up, without better Cmd or a 90+ BPV, Perez has some significant risk attached as well. A second-tier stopper option. (Hershey)
2010: 23 Sv, 1.71 ERA, 61 BPV
2011: 36 Sv, 3.32 ERA, 6 BPV

David Purcey: Once the hit rate dust, or magic beans, or whatever he was using ran out, the final stats bore out that he's still an archetypal, hard throwing, no-idea-where-it'll-go lefty. Or, succinctly: don't draft. (Truesdell)
2010: 3.71 ERA, 52 BPV
2011: 5.61 ERA, -69 BPV

J.J. Putz: Why the saves may return: - Skills as good as SEA heyday - '10 injuries not arm-related - Has "proven closer" label. Why there's risk: - "F" health grade says it all. UP: 2007 DN: 2009 (Truesdell)
2007: 40 saves, 1.38 ERA, 161 BPV
2009: 2 saves, 5.22 ERA, -27 BPV
2010: 3 saves, 2.83 ERA, 155 BPV
2011: 45 saves, 2.17 ERA, 140 BPV

Fernando Salas is behind incumbent Ryan Franklin, set-up men Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte, and possibly behind Mitchell Boggs. But McClellan may get pressed into starter duties with Adam Wainwright's injury. Franklin struggled mightily at the end of 2010 and is no sure thing for 2011. Boggs does not have the skill set. That leaves Motte ahead of Salas. If Salas can show consistent excellence as his skills suggest, he could force his way into set-up and possibly the closer role. He is a long-shot for saves in 2011, but the skills are strong enough to roster him. (Dennis)
2010: 0 saves, 3.52 ERA
2011: 24 saves, 2.28 ERA

Daniel Schlereth: Another case of skills falling short of stats. Here, it's that ever elusive home plate. Maybe 2H is a step in the right direction - the power arm is there. But don't bid until or unless Cmd hits 2.0. (Truesdell)
2010: 2.89 ERA, 1.9 Cmd, 61 BPV
2011: 3.49 ERA, 1.4 Cmd, 10 BPV

James Shields: Seemed like every GB missed a glove, and every FB cleared the wall, all year. We can't state this strongly enough: skills are as good as ever. If confidence is intact, it says here he'll be the draft-day bargain of 2011. (Truesdell)
2010: 13-15, 5.18 ERA, 107 BPV, $0
2011: 16-12, 2.82 ERA, 107 BPV, $29

Jason Vargas: Another finesse lefty who lives on the edge (pitching-wise, that is). Contact, high FB mix is a potentially explosive one -- won't get by with sub-tipping point Dom again. Let others bid to $10, suffer the ERA spike. (Truesdell)
2010: 3.78 ERA, 43 BPV, $10
2011: 4.25 ERA, 48 BPV, $5

Jordan Walden turned heads with an eye-popping 23 K in 15 IP over his late-2010 call-up to LAA. The Angels have a number of directions they can turn in their pen, starting with incumbent closer Fernando Rodney and newly-acquired Scott Downs. Both of those veterans have the much-valued (at least in the eyes of MLB managers) "closer experience," giving them a realistic leg up on the initial closer role. But if Walden has a strong spring, and continues to display those eye-popping skills, he may well compel Mike Scioscia to promote his "closer of the future" to "closer of the present." (Murphy)
2010: 2.35 ERA, 170 BPV, 1 Save in 15 IP
2011: 2.98 ERA, 98 BPV, 32 Saves in 60 IP