Buyer's Guides
When you need to gain some perspective, and take a more global, holistic view of what's going on in baseball, the Buyers Guides are the place to turn to. HQ's columnists analyze sleepers, gambles, prime trade bait and trade targets, and the reality behind streaks, slumps and performance issues. Enjoy five Buyer's Guide every week during 2007: Batting Average, Power, Speed, Bullpens and Starting Pitching.
Recent Column
Starting Pitchers Buyers Guide
Stephen Nickrand – April 7-8
Sixth Starters
Sixth starters are guys who may be next in line for an MLB rotation spot. In fact, many of them are better buys at this point in the season than the fifth starters ahead of them. Some sixth starters will work in long relief to start the season. Others will gain more experience in the minors. By contrast, many fifth starters will see their rotation turns skipped during the first few weeks of the season. This is why many young, high-skill guys who need consistent innings will start the year in the minors instead of in an MLB bullpen.
Targeting sixth starters this early in the season is a key strategy to building good rotation depth. Our adage of buying players based on their skills -- not their roles -- is a philosophy that highlights the value of sixth starters.
Here are the guys you want to consider stashing on reserve early in the season while their perceived value is low:
American League
Both Matt Garza (RHP, MIN) and Glen Perkins (LHP, MIN) are in good positions to make an impact in the first half of '07. MIN has rotation fillers in Sidney Ponson (RHP, MIN) and Carlos Silva (RHP, MIN) ahead of them. Garza has electric stuff and is consolidating his progress in Triple-A. Perkins has a lower upside but is a good prospect in his own right, as proven by his 131 K in 117 IP at Double-A in '06 at age 23.
J.P. Howell (LHP, TAM), Jeff Niemann (RHP, TAM), and Jason Hammel (RHP, TAM) are a trio of guys who could stick in the TAM rotation during the season. Howell is likely to get the first look, and his high Dom/GB% combination could help him emerge quickly. Niemann may have the most upside but he also carries the highest injury risk. Hammel has a history of control issues. Speculate on Howell first.
Phil Hughes (RHP, NYY) makes his debut at Triple-A this year. Along with Matt Garza, Hughes has all the tools to become an impact MLB starter. With the significant injury risk carried by Carl Pavano (RHP, NYY), his opportunity may be better than you think. Hughes is the guy most likely to successfully fill an opening in the NYY rotation.
Shaun Marcum (RHP, TOR) quietly put up nice numbers this spring: 16/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP. He showed flashes of good things as a SP with TOR late in '06. In fact, he posted an 86 BPV in July and a 58 BPV in September while in the TOR rotation. TOR views him as an important part of their bullpen, so his impact may come from there in '07. Either way, he's a good speculative play in very deep leagues.
Andrew Miller (LHP, DET) is on the cusp of getting a look in the DET rotation despite no experience in the high minors. Chad Durbin (RHP, DET) is the short-term plug for the opening created by the injury to Kenny Rogers (LHP, DET), but Miller's the guy most likely to have an impact at the back of the DET rotation. Look for him to make an impact in the second half.
Hayden Penn (RHP, BAL) has never shown much at the MLB level, but don't let that fool you. He's a top prospect with great stuff. His MLB impact has been delayed due to some fluky injuries. He was recalled in late May last year after his first taste of Triple-A, where both his Dominance (K/9) and Control (BB/9) rates were strong. A couple days later he was sidelined with appendicitis and never got back on track. Remember that he has posted good skills at each stop in the minors and he's just 22. With guys like Jaret Wright (RHP, BAL) and Steve Trachsel (RHP, BAL) ahead of him, the door will be wide open for Penn to make an impact later in the season.
Kyle Snyder (RHP, BOS) is a former top prospect who finally showed signs of life last year. BOS may like him in relief more than as a starter, and his skills have been better from the bullpen during his career: 7.5 Dom, 0.8 HR/9 as RP; 5.3 Dom, 1.4 HR/9 as SP. He had three starts in the spring and recorded 15 K in a total of 13.1 IP. At age 29, he's not too old to make an MLB impact, but he may need a new club to do so.
Jason Windsor (RHP, OAK) emerged with a 123/32 K/BB mark in his Triple-A debut last year. Joe Kennedy will get the initial look as OAK's fifth starter, but don't expect him to last long there.
National League
Homer Bailey (RHP, CIN) is another top prospect who could make an impact in an MLB rotation sooner rather than later. His ability to induce groundballs (56 GB% at AA Chattanooga in '06) bodes well for how he'll handle Great American Ballpark.
Chad Billingsley (RHP, LA) is a top prospect who pitched really well this spring. He'll probably need an injury to give him a rotation shot, but he's got the goods to succeed right away: high Dom/high GB%.
Lance Cormier (RHP, ATL) has a creaky shoulder and a history of poor control, so he comes with risk. But his strong spring (13/1 K/BB in 15.2 IP) and high GB% make him a guy to monitor once he's healthy.
Angel Guzman (RHP, CHC) nearly won a spot in the CHC rotation. For now, he'll wait for the poor skills of Jason Marquis (RHP, CHC) or the frailty of Wade Miller (RHP, CHC) to catch up with them. Guzman issued just two BB in 18 IP this spring. He's got top-flight Dom upside too. If he can marry the two, he'll make an impact in the CHC rotation this year.
Fernando Nieve (RHP, HOU) was edged out by Chris Sampson (RHP, HOU) for a spot in the HOU rotation. But Nieve had a good spring and owns skills that make him worth watching in deep leagues. He posted a 2.8 Ctl and 6.3 Dom in the first three months of '06.
Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, ARI) has been a prospect for what seems like forever. Coming over to ARI in the Jorge Julio (RHP, FLA) trade, Petit's stock takes a dip in HR-friendly Chase Field. But he's probably a better long-term bet to stick in a starting role than Micah Owings (RHP, ARI).
Jonathan Sanchez (LHP, SF) is still looking for the role that suits him best. He'll start the year in relief. SF Mgr Bruce Bochy views him as a starter, so expect him to get another look in that role at some point. Remember that he's just 24 and he had dominating stretches as a starter in the minors last year.
Carlos Villanueva (RHP, MIL) has five established guys ahead of him in the MIL rotation, so he'll need to catch a break. Despite a lack of great stuff, he pitched well with MIL late last year and looked good this spring.
