Baseball HQ's 2009 Track Record
Need player projections? Pick up any one of a dozen spring magazines or browse over to any fantasy baseball web site. But what you're really getting are three-year averages, subjective opinions or canned, inert numbers. Real performance forecasting is a living, breathing process that looks beyond faulty statistics and focuses on the analysis of component skills and leading indicators. That's what we do at Baseball HQ; it's a process that has been the foundation of our publications since 1993.
In 2009, this process produced a set of projections that could have made the difference in your fantasy season. Here is a look at how the analysis works, and some of the results...
2009 Batters
Garret Anderson: Skills were a near match for 2005-06, and judging by RAR, that's not a good thing. Second year in a row it took big 2nd half to save his season. Be wary of age and what happens if those 1st half numbers ever stick. (KRUSE)
2008 1H: .255 BA, .662 OPS, 73 PX
2009: .268 BA, .707 OPS, 85 PX
Normally rookies get overvalued due to the hype. Elvis Andrus, however, goes undrafted in some shallow leagues. We project him for 34 stolen bases. (BEAGLE)
2009: 6-40-.267 with 33 SB
Jason Bartlett once again represents a solid value. Last year we told you grab him for his AAV of $1 in shallow leagues and he returned $15. After a World Series appearance, Bartlett can no longer be considered a secret. But his $6 market price still leaves $5 worth of profit for the taking. We project a .292 average with 24 steals. Not bad for a guy selected about six rounds after our #151 ranking. (BEAGLE)
2008: 1-37-20-.286
2009: 14-66-30-.320
Jason Bay has already posted seasons of 32 and 35 HRs, but after his 2007 off-year, we seemed grateful that he managed to get back to even 31 HR last year. There is more potential here, especially with the opportunity to spend a full season on a contender. His 155 PX during his 35-HR season was virtually identical to the 154 PX he posted this past year. He could hit 40 HRs, but pay for 35.
2008: 31-101-.286
2009: 36-119-.267
In his first full MLB season, Michael Bourn (OF, HOU) watched his OBA drop from .348 to .286, but he still swiped 41 bases. His market value is plummeting in this year's early drafts, but that was but one bad season; odds are he will rebound.
2008: 5-29-41-.229
2009: 3-35-61-.285
Billy Butler: At 23, there's not a ton of evidence that he's a power hitter in the making. But he is definitely a hitter in the making: high ct%, good Eye for his age. What inkling do we have of a power breakout? He bumped his PX in the 2nd half of his rookie season (75 to 94), and hit 10 of his 11 MLB HRs in July/August/September. The reason for optimism here is the pace of that growth. If he can continue to make adjustments quickly, he could reach a level by the end of 2009 that the BPIs didn't support at the beginning of the year. (MURPHY)
2008: 11-55-.275
2009: 21-93-.301
Marlon Byrd's hopes of hitting the ground running have stalled a bit after off-season knee surgery. He compiled almost a full season of ABs in the majors in 2008 and showed some promise at the plate, putting up the best bb%, ct% and Eye ratio of his career. His 10 HR, 7 SB and near-.300 BA hinted at a player who contributes in multiple categories, but remember that Byrd is already 31. He's probably right at about his peak now; the indicators likely won't get much better. But if he can sustain the plate patience gains and find his way to 500 AB, there could be some hidden profit here. (HERSHEY)
2008: 10-53-.298
2009: 20-89-.283
Shin-Soo Choo: PX breakout was pumped up by 28 doubles; other than that, he's owned these skills before, most notably hr/f. If SBO returns and 2H is for real... UP: .300 BA, 25 HR, 20 SB. (KRUSE)
2008: 14-66-4-.309
2009: 20-86-21-.300
Carl Crawford: Hamstring and finger injuries ended his four-year run of $30 seasons. But other than PX and SBO, both likely affected by the injuries, his skills remained intact, making him a good bet to start a new $30 streak in 2009. (KRUSE)
2008: 8-57-25-.273, $17
2009: 15-68-60-.305, $38
Nelson Cruz: Biggest season of his career comes, of course, at age 27. Skill history still creates doubts about BA, and '08 hr/f looks like an outlier, but he finally appears ready to deliver in the majors. (KRUSE)
2008: 7-26-.330 (115 AB)
2009: 33-76-.260 (461 AB)
Edwin Encarnacion represents one of the most overpriced players in this tier, his ADP going in the 130's for about $12. We see him producing half that due to lack of speed and mediocre 80% contact rate. (BEAGLE)
2008: 26-68-.251
2009: 13-39-.225
Andre Ethier is riding a three-year growth trend in PX (95, 106, 129), xBA (.267, .275, .311), and fly ball rate. While others doubt, know this growth is real. (BEAGLE)
2008: 20-77-.305
2009: 31-106-.272
Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau offer solid production and reliability. Expect a bit of a power resurgence from both, as their hr/fb dipped in 2008. (BEAGLE)
2008: Fielder 34 HRs, Morneau 23 HRs
2009: Fielder 46 HRs, Morneau 30 HRs
Dexter Fowler: In the crowded COL OF, the obvious conclusion is that a mix-and-match approach will reign, at least early in the season. But fanalytically speaking, the big question is when exactly Fowler will arrive. His SB potential puts his value ceiling head-and-shoulders above any other contender in this OF. Working in Fowler's favor is that the COL lineup, post Wily Taveras, lacks a leadoff hitter. While Carlos Gonzalez may have an experience edge, and Ryan Spilborghs enters camp with the job, there is reason to think that COL wants Fowler to win the CF job. Particularly if you are drafting earlier in March before this situation settles down, you might be able to snatch Fowler very late. Do it. (MURPHY)
2009: 27 SB, .266
Three full seasons in the majors have defined Curtis Granderson as a 20-20-.290ish hitter. However, as he enters his age 28 peak, his 2nd half of last year looks more intriguing. That may presage a 30-HR upside.
2008: 22-66-12-.280
2009: 30-71-20-.249
Todd Helton says his back feels better than it has in years. Should we believe him? It's worth noting that even the diminished Helton of recent years had stabilized at a level better than we saw from him in 2008:
Year PX ==== === 2005 140 2006 102 2007 109 2008 82
The high-BA, moderate power version of Helton from 2005-07 (62 HR in those three years) was still a fairly valuable fanalytic contributor. The prime/elite Helton isn't likely coming back, but even moderate improvement in his back could return a nice profit. (MURPHY)
2007: 17-91-.320
2008: 7-29-.264 (299 AB)
2009: 15-86-.325
It is amazing that Aaron Hill was the 6th best 2Bman in the AL in 2007, and this year he is appearing on only 17% of 15-team mixed league teams (ADP = 311) at Mock Draft Central. How many 2Bmen do you think there are with 15+ HR potential?
2007: 17-78-.291
2008: 2-20-.263 (205 AB)
2009: 36-108-.286
Maicer Izturis has become sort of a perpetual sleeper here because he always finding himself on the short end of the playing time stick while maintaining the potential to hit .300. It appears Izturis will serve as a utility infielder again in 2009. With BA and stolen base potential even in part-time play, he's a deep league mainstay, but with a little luck, his value could expand beyond that. (KRUSE)
2008: 3-37-11-.269, $9 (290 AB)
2009: 8-65-13-.300, $17 (387 AB)
Adam Jones' arrival in BAL last year was supposed to be a break for his power output, but it didn't happen. He's still only 23, so there's time. Is 2009 the year? BPI-wise, his average PX and high GB% say no. On the positive side, he owns his minor league power levels, showed an ability to refine his approach in-season last year, and may be "one adjustment away" from finding the very reachable seats of Camden Yards on a regular basis. (MURPHY)
2008: 9-57-.269
2009: 19-70-.277
Chipper Jones: Still so much to love, and yet the signs of decline loom, notably lowest PX in a decade, more nagging injuries. BA will regress with h%, but others will bid up. This may finally be the year to let others overspend on him. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 22-75-.364, $27
2009: 18-71-.264, $14
Matt Kemp: As if the SB and overall solid numbers aren't yummy enough, note the 2H skills gains across the board. Struggled a bit vs. RHP, but past splits are less severe. Regression to the mean there takes him to star status. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 18-76-35-.290
2009: 26-101-34-.297
Adam Kennedy's hit rate returned to normal, and with it most of his per-AB value. But he's spending a LOT of time on the bench. A return to more playing time could bump him back to double-digit steals. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 2-36-7-.280 (339 AB)
2009: 11-63-20-.289 (529 AB)
Paul Konerko: In our First Pitch "Undervalued Veterans Over 30" presentation this past spring, we included Paul Konerko (1B, CHW) as a rebound candidate with the caveat of "health permitting"... While his GB% and PX both trended ominously last year, Konerko was only completely - and briefly - healthy for about six weeks in August and September, during which he posted most of his HR and best PX of the season. At age 33, he isn't likely to return to his past peaks... but health permitting, Konerko is a very good bet to at least match his 2007 output (31-90-.259). (THOMPSON)
2008: 22-62-.240
2009: 28-88-.277
Jason Kubel: Baby steps, but in the right direction. FB trend with steady hr/f hint at a bigger power spike coming. UP: .290 BA, 27 HR (TRUESDELL)
2008: 20-78-.272
2009: 28-103-.300
Gerald Laird: The difference between his 2008 actual BA (.276) and his 2009 projected xBA (.241) is scary enough, but if his contact rate falls closer to what he did in 2006-07, his downside might be a .230 BA. If his LD% drops as well (from 2004-07, he averaged 16%), the downside slides into the .220s. (KRUSE)
2008: .276 BA, 22% LD
2009: .225 BA, 14% LD
Adam Lind: Infamous Shandler Tout Wars pick finally got the call, and put up tantalizing BPI's. Solid, but not quite "put all together." But owns '06 skills (26 HR, .331) -- and they could arrive now. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 9-40-.282 (326 AB)
2009: 35-114-.305
Miguel Montero: Among those NL catchers not projected for 400 AB, Montero's skills stand out. We've touted his power skills in prior years, and his 138 PX says they are still intact. With Chris Snyder secure in the lead CA role in ARI, Montero looks blocked for another year. But don't cross him off your draft list just yet. If the opportunity comes, Montero continues to have the potential to sock 20 HR in 400 AB. (MURPHY)
2008: 5-18-.255 (184 AB)
2009: 16-59-.294 (425 AB)
Kendry Morales struggled culturally and professionally after first being signed by LAA during the winter before the 2005 season. His plate patience still leaves much to be desired, and both his xBA and LD rates suggest that Morales should struggle to hit .270. But Morales' line-to-line hitting approach is difficult to defend, and partly responsible for the significant BA difference here. He makes good hard contact and his FB trend has turned positive, suggesting that the 6'1" 225 lb Morales might still develop 20+ HR power in spite of his PX history. (THOMPSON)
2008: 3-8-.213 (61 AB)
2009: 34-108-.306
Between AAA and the majors, Nyjer Morgan batted .309 with 26 SB in the 2nd half, but is still likely on the outside looking in. It will be a surprise to find him going anywhere but the end game in NL leagues, and undrafted in mixed leagues. Grab him.
2008: 0-7-9-.294
2009: 3-39-42-.308
Miguel Olivo took his power to new levels in the first half. Rising FB, solid hr/f and PX history say HR spike possible. UP: 400 AB, 20 HR. (HERSHEY)
2008: 12-41-.255 (306 AB)
2009: 23-65-.249 (390 AB)
Martin Prado: Deep league owners should keep Prado on their watch lists. The 25-year old either hiked or consolidated his skills across the board last season. At a prime growth age, it's not difficult to imagine him shining in another 300 AB off the bench. (THOMPSON)
2008: 2-33-.320 (228 AB)
2009: 11-49-.307 (450 AB)
Juan Rivera: PRO: Power, FB%, ct% all surged with regular 2H AB.
CON: Poor bb%, selectivity endanger LD% and PROs. If CONs part of injury rust... Upside: 2006 redux (23-85-.310) (THOMPSON)
2008: 12-45-.246
2009: 25-88-.287
If a player's BA trend was .305, .280, .282, would you significantly downgrade him on your draft list, all else being equal? Not likely. But Freddy Sanchez's real BA trend (.344, .304, .271) has folks running for the hills. With an 89% contact rate and .321 BA in the second half, odds are good for him to bounce back, perhaps back to .300.
2008: .271
2009: .293
Pablo Sandoval represents quite a risk, but remember the upside of a potential .300 average after he posted a 90% contact rate and .320 xBA as a rookie. Most drafts put his ADP around the 220 mark, while HQ ranks him about 100 spots higher. (BEAGLE)
2008: 3-24-.345 (145 AB)
2009: 25-90-.330
Kelly Shoppach's spring line (.250 BA, 5 HR in 56 AB, but 2 BB/21 K) highlights the pros and cons. The power is real, but it can occasionally be overwhelmed by the lack of contact. The concern is that last year, when Victor Martinez got hurt, the Indians were left with little choice but to ride out Shoppach's streaky ways. This year, they have plenty of alternatives. Shoppach will have to produce to play, and when he gets into those strikeout binges, he becomes a risk to lose playing time.(MURPHY)
2008: 21-55-.261 (352 AB)
2009: 12-40-.214 (271 AB)
Troy Tulowitzki: April slump and May quad injury ruined 1H, but 2H skills snapped back to rookie levels. Strong Sept. (.330 BA, 126 PX) further signaled his full recovery. Bid on a return to 2007 performance. (MURPHY)
2007: 24-99-.291
2008: 8-46-.263
2009: 32-92-.297
Dan Uggla: After his All Star Game debacle we warned of the psychological fallout. Sure enough, he went into an immediate slump. ct% plummet and hr/f spike were harbingers of doom anyway. DN: Less than 25 HR, .240s BA (MURPHY)
2008: 32-92-.260
2009: 31-90-.243
Juan Uribe: More LD and reverting h% helped BA recover in the 2nd half. However, recovery to mediocrity is no big deal. Still has 20-HR potential if he gets the PT, which is now more of a longshot. (MURPHY)
2008: 7-40-.247
2009: 16-55-.289
Joey Votto: PRO: Across the board 2nd half growth, handled both LH & RH. CON: GB% will slow power growth, despite solid PX & hr/f. xBA says pay for BA now, but wait a bit longer 30+ HRs. (MURPHY)
2008: 24-84-.297
2009: 25-84-.322
Jayson Werth's 147 PX and 130 SX mirror his 2004 MLE's. Werth has always possessed these skills; he just never had the health and opportunity to display them over an extended period. His fly ball rate, home run per fly ball, and xBA are all increasing. Team that with career above average PX and SX for a mid-round sleeper. (BEAGLE)
2008: 24-67-20-.273
2009: 36-99-20-.268
Randy Winn: Surprising speed spike drives his value, but speed is a skill of the young, and will be a tough repeat. Steady GB bias and sub-par PX limit power; stable .280s xBA shows true BA ability. As speed declines, value will evaporate. (MURPHY)
2008: 10-64-25-.306
2009: 2-51-16-.262
Ben Zobrist: BJ Upton's shoulder and the presumed Matt Joyce/Gabe Kapler platoon in RF may create an opportunity for Zobrist to carry over his surprising 2008 power surge. When you see a guy like Zobrist, who put up a 147 PX and .291 xBA in the majors last year, can play infield or outfield, and switch-hits, and can run a little... that's the perfect end-game roster filler. (MURPHY)
2008: 12-30-.253
2009: 27-91-.297
2009 Pitchers
Ryan Dempster: Improbable career year as SP after 3 years in pen, fueled by improved Ctl and Cmd hike.
Neither support performance, nothing in his past suggests they're sustainable. He'll be good again, but not this good.
(THOMPSON)
2008: 17-6, 2.96 ERA
2009: 11-9, 3.65 ERA
For three years at AA, Armando Galarraga labored with a high H% and low S%, causing some ugly ERAs. In his first exposure to the bigs, those numbers turned in his favor, resulting in a sterling ERA. Unless his luck continues on the "happy" side, it's unlikely his ERA will remain low in 2009.
(ADLER)
2008: 13-7, 3.73 ERA
2009: 6-10, 5.64 ERA
Yovani Gallardo's knee injury in May cost him the season, except for a final-week cameo. Skill set is elite, knee should not present any further problems. Expect workload to be closely monitored in 2009. Meet the new MIL ace.
(MURPHY)
2008: 18 IP, injured
2009: 13-12, 3.73 ERA in 186 IP
Zack Greinke: Finally all the way back from 2006 absence, nudged his skills to a new level. Spike in GB% particularly encouraging. 2nd half Cmd spike says best is yet to come, eases burnout concerns. UP: sub-3.00 ERA.
(MURPHY)
2008: 13-10, 3.47 ERA
2009: 16-8, 2.16 ERA
Jeremy Guthrie's ERA remained stable from 2007 to 2008, but xERA shows that there was some erosion in skills. The culprit was decreased Cmd - Guthrie walked a few more batters and struck out a few less per game. He did a decent job keeping the ball on the ground, but unless he recovers his lost dominance, his ERA will be north of 4.00 this year.
(ADLER)
2008: 10-12, 3.63 ERA
2009: 10-17, 5.04 ERA
Cole Hamels: We knew the skills were there, he answered questions about durability in a big way. But is he out of the woods? 40-inning IP spike plus post-season work raise the burnout risk.
(MURPHY)
2008: 14-10, 3.09 ERA in 227 IP
2009: 10-11, 4.32 ERA in 194 IP
Aaron Harang: Is he Dusty's latest victim? 5/25 relief outing on 2 days rest ruined his year: 6.00 June ERA, DL'd early July. Pitched better after return, but Dom was still off. Multiple years of heavy workload; full recovery unlikely.
(MURPHY)
2007: 16-6, 3.73 ERA
2008: 6-17, 4.78 ERA
2009: 6-14, 4.21 ERA
Rich Harden: Finally brought together skills and health, but not out of the woods. Workload was carefully monitored, "minor" off-season shoulder surgery a possibility. Chronically injured players don't suddenly get healthy. Beware.
(MURPHY)
2008: 148 IP, 10-2, 2.07 ERA
2009: 141 IP, 9-9, 4.09 ERA
Felix Hernandez: Slight loss of Ctl a concern, but Dom/GB combination more than covers the occasional BB. Overdue for some h% help, SEA IF defense perhaps betraying him. It's coming, it's coming... UP: Sub-3.00 ERA, rejoicing.
(MURPHY)
2008: 9-11, 3.45 ERA
2009: 19-5, 2.49 ERA
Edwin Jackson has been a sleeper for a while. We know he has great stuff. But it hasn't been evident in his yearly skills. He's gone through stretches over the last couple of years where he looks like a rotation anchor. Then he can't find the plate and turns into a WHIP killer. Now he's got a fresh start in DET, a club desperate for starting pitching. He has been decent this spring: 13/8 K/BB in 20 IP. And he's just 25.
(NICKRAND)
2008: 14-11, 4.42 ERA
2009:
13-9, 3.62 ERA
Cliff Lee: Except for the sudden emphasis on GBs, breakout was really a consolidation of skills he already owned. Late-season Dom dip and big IP spike raise workload concerns, but very good chance he'll repeat to level of xERA.
(MURPHY)
2008: 2.54 ERA, 3.57 xERA
2009: 3.22 ERA
Matt Lindstrom: Closing, but for how long? Prone to Ctl, Cmd issues. Has declining Dom rate. Artificially low hr/f. Sizable ERA/xERA variance. 2007 BPV not closer-worthy. These are risky saves to chase. (KRUSE)
2008: 3.14 ERA, 5 SV, 33 BPV
2009: 5.89 ERA, 15 SV, 30 BPV
Kyle Lohse: ERA improvement has rapidly outpaced his skill growth, which has been gradual at best. 2H was nice, but are you willing to bet big bucks on one good half-season vs. four and a half mediocre ones? We're not. (KRUSE)
2007: 4.62 ERA
2008 2H: 3.90 ERA
2009: 4.84 ERA
Braden Looper: PRO: Relocated above-average Dom and elite Cmd in 2nd half. CON: The three and a half years in between when they were nowhere to be found. Value him at '07 level; hope he revisits those glory days again. (KRUSE)
2007: 4.94 ERA
2008: 4.16 ERA
2009: 5.22 ERA
John Maine: Bone spur in shoulder may have caused some of the Cmd slide, though 1H skills weren't stellar either. Overall, this looked a lot like 2005-06, making 2007 an outlier. Don't assume he'll just bounce back to that level. (KRUSE)
2007: 3.91 ERA, 2.4 Cmd
2008: 4.18 ERA, 1.8 Cmd
2009: 4.72 ERA, 1.3 Cmd
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Lots to be worried about here... Three-year slide in most BPIs. Huge gap between ERA and xERA. W-L, ERA make '08 look like '06, but skills were worlds apart. Will be dangerously overvalued. DN: 10 wins, 4.50 ERA. (KRUSE)
2008: 18 Wins, 2.90 ERA, 4.76 xERA
2009: 3 Wins, 6.08 ERA, 5.42 xERA
Jeff Niemann: Another former first round pick, this one has displayed good skills, albeit in the high minors. He'll be undervalued due to the presence of David Price.
(NICKRAND)
2009: 13-6, 3.94 ERA
Ross Ohlendorf posted good skills in Triple-A last year (65/13 K/BB in 69 IP). He has bounced around between starting and relief roles over the past couple years, showing better skills in relief than as a SP. But he hasn't gotten an extended look as a SP yet. Looks like he'll get that this year.
(NICKRAND)
2008: 1-4, 6.46 ERA (63 IP)
2009: 11-10, 3.92 ERA (177 IP)
David Price: SP prospects don't get better than this. On top of having elite stuff, he induces GB well too. Problem is, he's green. Only 75 IP above High-A. Odds are he'll need more seasoning. (NICKRAND)
2008: 0-0, 1.93 ERA (14 IP)
2009: 10-7, 4.42 ERA (128 IP)
With the acquisition of Brandon Lyon, the value of Fernando Rodney plummeted. While Lyon had nice BPI's in 2008, it represented his first stellar season. Before the Tigers named Lyon closer, he was a great sleeper. Now, with Joel Zumaya still fighting injuries, Rodney can be had much cheaper as the next in line for saves. Rodney himself fights to stay consistent, specifically with his control. In 2008, he walked 6.7 batters per nine innings. But historically his control rate has hovered around 4.0. While this fails to inspire confidence, Rodney's strikeout rate of 10.9 displays incredible upside. Not a one year wonder, his K rate rise follows a three-year trend. So a 4.0 control would be acceptable with a K rate over 8.0, a level Rodney has surpassed each of the past four years. Going undrafted in most mixed leagues, Rodney could return ($5) as a speculative Saves source.
(BEAGLE)
2008: 13 saves, $5
2009: 37 saves, $14
While his oblique injury causes concern, it also depresses the price of Wandy Rodriguez. Before the injury, we ranked Wandy #162 ($11) compared to the market #273 ($5). Rodriguez raised his Command each of the past three years to 3.0 in 2008. He did that by improving both his Dominance (6.5, 7.8, 8.6) and Control (4.2, 3.1, 2.9). Now these skills should come at a greater discount.(BEAGLE)
2008: 9-7, 3.54 ERA in 137 IP, $10
2009: 14-12, 3.02 ERA in 206 IP, $21
Joe Saunders: xERA and BPV weren't fooled by this performance. Solid Ctl is commendable, but where'd the Dom go? With higher GB%, we'd be willing to accept lower K/9; instead, his FB% adds more danger. Could implode.
(RANDALL)
2008: 3.41 ERA
2009: 4.60 ERA
Russ Springer: Returned to earth as forecast, but luck stayed in stratosphere. Don't get me wrong, most kids half his age would kill for this Dom, OBA. But when S% and hr/f regress, he may wish he'd have retired relatively on top. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 2.18 ERA, 4.41 xERA (S% 83%, H% 27%)
2009: 4.11 ERA, 4.87 xERA (S% 78%, H% 36%)
Huston Street: His usual self early, but pulled groin cut into Dom, and bad hr/f luck cut into OAK's faith. Was again pitching well by Sept, but by then save opps were gone. Owns those 100+ BPVs, but now may need a change of venue. (TRUESDELL)
2007 with OAK: 16 Sv, 159 BPV
2008 with OAK: 18 Sv, 77 BPV
2009 with COL: 35 Sv, 146 BPV
Javier Vazquez: For the past eleven years, he posted Command ratios over 2.0, surpassing 3.3 the past four years. While most will bid on last year's 4.67 ERA, you will note his 3.84 xERA from a 33% hit rate and 67% Strand. He moves from the highest home run park in the league (US Cellular: +25% for lefties) to one of the worst (Turner Field: -9%). He also gets to face opposing pitchers instead of designated hitters.
(BEAGLE)
2008: 12-16, 4.67 ERA
2009:
15-10, 2.87 ERA
Chris Volstad: Why he's not there yet... Subpar Cmd, miniscule hr/f and he's only 22. Has a future, but don't pay for an ERA less than 4.00 in '09. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 6-5, 2.88 ERA (84 IP)
2009: 9-13, 5.21 ERA (159 IP)
Adam Wainwright: Only a sprained finger kept him from a big season. Stats not quite as good as skills, but he keeps besting xERA as a starter. A breakout is not far off; a few more K's, a bit more health. UP: 18 wins, 3.00 ERA
(TRUESDELL)
2007: 14-12, 3.70 ERA in 202 IP
2008: 11-3, 3.20 ERA in 132 IP
2009: 19-8, 2.63 ERA in 233 IP
Jered Weaver: Can't see it in results, but this was a growth season. Big 2H Dom, around nagging aches, mitigated FB%. 57/17 PQS split also a step up. Just hitting stride at 26. Durability still TBD, but there's more skills upside here.
(TRUESDELL)
2008: 11-10, 4.33 ERA
2009: 16-8, 3.75 ERA
Todd Welleymeyer: Two reasons to avoid in 2009... 1) ERA was well below xERA. 2) More in-season elbow pain accompanied by 110 IP spike. A nice Ctl step up, however... Small DN: 5.00+ ERA. Big DN: TJ surgery. (TRUESDELL)
2008: 192 IP, 3.71 ERA
2009: 120 IP, 5.76 ERA
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