Baseball HQ's 2008 Track Record
Need player projections? Pick up any one of a dozen spring magazines or browse over to any fantasy baseball web site. But what you're really getting are three-year averages, subjective opinions or canned, inert numbers. Real performance forecasting is a living, breathing process that looks beyond faulty statistics and focuses on the analysis of component skills and leading indicators. That's what we do at Baseball HQ; it's a process that has been the foundation of our publications since 1993.
In 2008, this process produced a set of projections that could have made the difference in your fantasy season. Here is a look at how the analysis works, and some of the results...
2008 Batters
Orlando Cabrera
wowed us with his .334 first half BA, and managed to finish the season over .300 despite only hitting .269 in the second half. That 2nd half level is a more accurate barometer of his skill set (.266 xBA overall); don't be paying for .300.
2007: .301
2008: .281
Jorge Cantu
put up PX of 140 and 128 back in 2005-06 with TAM. At that point in his career, he looked like a future elite bat at 2B. But after regressing in 2006 and playing his way out of TAM and (briefly) the majors, Cantu is competing for AB in FLA. If he can carve out a regular role with the Marlins, that power is still there and waiting to re-emerge.
(Murphy)
2007: 1-13-.252
2008: 29-95-.277
Rajai Davis
is a SB monster. He does not have a clear path to playing time, which will depress his value, but remember that he stole over 20 bases in under 200 AB last year. Even if he only does that again, where's the downside in the end game?
2007: 22 SB in 190 AB
2008: 30 SB in 218 AB
Ryan Doumit
won't likely play catcher in '08 but he will qualify there for draft day. Yes, he's spent nearly 150 days on the DL the past two years, and yes, he's in a playing time crunch in the PIT outfield. But he has solid BPIs and it's not often you can get 10-15 HRs from an end-game catcher.
2007: 9-32-.274
2008: 15-69-.318
Stephen Drew:
On the plus side: an improved batting eye (both walk and contact rates) and a decent September performance (.266, three homers, three steals.). Drew is still only 25, and the skills are still there. HQ is projecting a much better season for him, which could put him into bargain territory if your competitors focus too closely on his 2007 numbers.
(Todaro)
2007: 12-60-.238
2008: 21-67-.291
Jermaine Dye
should come highly undervalued after his 44-28 HR and .315-.254 BA comedowns in 2007. His 1st half was truly underwhelming, but he was vintage down the stretch... 35-HR pace and .311 xBA point to a rebound in '08.
2007: 28-78-.254
2008: 34-96-.292
Andre Ethier:
When we compare Ethier's 2007 season against 2006, it looks like a year of stagnation, and to a certain extent it was. But when we take a look at his second half, we can see that he pumped up his PX (126 PX in 2H vs. 89 PX in 1H) while improving his BA (.293 in 2H vs. .276 in 1H). There is no doubt that the Dodgers OF is a crowded one, making AB's tougher to come by, but wise fanalytic owners will see a buying opportunity, because one way or the other, Andre Ethier will get playing time in 2008. When he does, you will want to have him and his potential upside on your roster.
(Hoffer)
2006: 11-55-.308 in 396 AB
2007: 13-64-.284 in 447 AB
2008: 20-77-.305 in 525 AB
Gabe Gross
was a top 30ish prospect in 2003 and 2004 but has evolved into a platooner because of his sub-.100 BA versus LHPs. That's the bad news. The good news is that he does very well vs RHPs. A sub-par hit rate depressed his BA last year, which probably makes him virtually undraftable, but as a reserve round pick there is upside.
2007: 7-24-.235
2008: 13-40-.238
Scott Hairston:
Power in search of an opportunity. PX trend (119, 126, 134) and FB are bullish for his HR potential, but batting eye will keep his average down. The SD outfield is a mess; he could see 500 AB which could mean 20-plus HRs
2007: 11 HR, .243 in 263 AB
2008: 17 HR, .248 in 326 AB when he got hurt in August
Eric Hinske:
Still only 30 years of age, Hinske has been buried the past two years in TOR and BOS as his skills have peaked. A three-year rise in bb%, batting Eye, FB% and a solid PX (142 in 2007) point to untapped power waiting for an opportunity. A full-time gig would expose a glaring weakness (BAs vs LHP at or below .200 the past three seasons), but he could shine in a platoon or as an injury replacement.
(Hershey)
2007: 6-21-.204 in 186 AB
2008: 20-60-.247 in 381
Chris Iannetta
was supposed to be the next great catching prospect, but struggled mightily with the Rockies in 2007 with a ridiculously low BABIP. He has hit well over .300 this spring and will serve as the backup to Yorvit Torrealba to start the season, but look for him to eat into Torrealba's playing time and re-establish himself as a solid catching option.
(Gordon)
2007: 4-27-.218
2008: 18-65-.264
Derek Jeter
can still bat well over .300, but with each passing season, it becomes more and more of an empty BA. The days of 20-20 are three years gone, and with speed a skill of the young, odds are against another '07 surge for this 33-year-old. This is barely a $20 player now.
2007: 12-73-15-.322, $25
2008: 11-69-11-.300, $21
Chipper Jones:
It's less of a stretch to predict the guy who finished 2nd in batting in the NL a year ago to move up to the top slot this year. But Jones' 2007 is being dismissed in most corners as an unsustainable late-career spike in productivity. To be sure, Jones' durability is an issue. But he should be able to reach the 501 PA level required for the batting title, and the skills say he is very well-equipped to hit .330 or better over however long he can stay in the lineup. If you're willing to consider Albert Pujols and the risk buried in his elbow, at some price point Jones becomes a very similar risk/reward play.
(Murphy)
2007: .337
2008: .364 in 529 plate appearances.
Andy Marte:
It is clear that physically he is no longer a promising prospect. At the plate, Marte has become overly pull-conscious and one look at his hitting charts indicates an inability or unwillingness to go the other way. While Marte is still young, there is very little to suggest an impending breakout. (Gordon)
2007: 1-8-.193
2008: 3-17-.221
Nate McLouth
almost doubled his walk rate last season, and he boosted his power. His improved PX was supported by a jump in his fly ball rate from 35% to 53%. McLouth had a stellar second half, with 12 HR, 18 SB, and a .272 BA. If he wins the competition, he should be Pittsburgh's lead-off hitter, increasing his AB and his scoring opportunities. We are projecting 15 HR, 17 SB, and 68 runs scored, but if McLouth could hold the starting job all season, he has 20-20 potential.
(Nichols)
2007: 13-38-22-.258
2008: 26-94-23-.276
Lastings Milledge
is flashing the power/speed combo in spring training that made him a top prospect in the first place, hitting .333, slugging .500 despite not having a HR yet, and stealing 5 bases in only 42 AB. It remains to be seen whether Milledge can carry this over to the regular season, but if you adapt our "buy skills, not roles" mantra to something like "buy tools, not attitude", then Milledge might be a worthy investment.
(Murphy)
2007: 7-29-3-.272
2008: 14-61-24-.268
Juan Pierre:
Discussions of LA playing time last year in relation to this year miss a huge point -- new management. This will certainly impact LA OF playing time, and not in Pierre's favor. After the Jones trade, Pierre was the OF on the outside looking
in... Kemp deserves 90% PT; he is a stud in the making, and Torre will see that where others before him did
not. There is no way Joe Torre will think Pierre is a better player, deserving of more playing time, than Ethier.
(Andres)
2003-2007: No fewer than 656 AB in any year.
2008 projection: 300 AB
2008 actual: 375 AB
Placido Polanco
is typecast as a uni-skilled player -- big batting average and nothing else. Well, that's almost true. The reality is that his consistent 95% contact rates mean his high BA is reliable, and important, often allowing you to roster a BA-killer Wily Mo Pena type. Plus, he scored over 100 runs last year. He's not perceived as a $20 player, but he really is.
2007: 9 HR, 105 runs, .341, $23
2008: 8 HR, 90 runs, .307, $19
Edgar Renteria batted .332 last year, a level he hadn't seen in five seasons. However, his xBA was 40 points lower, so don't be getting into a bidding war when his price starts flirting with $20.
2007: .332
2008: .270 ($11)
Kelly Shoppach
shouldn't get enough at bats to hurt your batting average with his sub-70% contact rate. But you could still reap some nice power -- perhaps double-digit power -- for an end-game pick.
2007: 7-30-.261
2008: 21-55-.261
Miguel Tejada:
Though only 31, this is a player with free-falling power skills (PX trend of 129, 98, 82 and ground ball trend of 45%, 47%, 48%, 51%, 52%) trying to rejuvenate his career in a new league. Whether you believe he's full of B-12, or something else, a trend is a trend.
2006: 24 HR, .330
2007: 18 HR, .296
2008: 13 HR, .283
B.J. Upton:
Underlying skills do not support this output at all; 68% ct%, .260 xBA, and inflated 40% h% all say there's little chance he repeats '07 in '08. So look for stat drop-off, even as skills potentially improve.
(Truesdell)
2007: 24-82-22-.300
2008: 9-67-44-.273
Jason Varitek:
At 36 years old, it looks like Father Time is calling. Varitek rebounded from a terrible year two seasons ago and got his counting stats close to pre-2006 levels. But xBA says that 2007 was worse and other indicators like ct%, PX and RC/G, all which received a bump when compared to 2006, show an overall decline.
(Hershey)
2007: 17-68-.255
2008: 13-43-.220
Jose Vidro:
Hit rate unsupported by skills. No speed, little power, and when (not if) h% regresses, the stats will look hauntingly like '05/'06.
(Truesdell)
2007: .314 BA
2008: .234 BA
2008 Pitchers
Scott Baker
likely won't generate many bidding wars after a 9-win, 4.26 ERA season, and his near-identical xERA might dissuade analysts from digging too deep either. But with experience, and BPI growth, comes hope. Start with a 1.7 bb/9 and 3.9 command ratio. A 68% strand rate has room for improvement. As a flyball pitcher, he's still a risk, but one with upside.
2007: 9-9, 4.26 ERA
2008: 11-4, 3.45 ERA
Brian Bannister
surprised everyone with a 12-win, 3.87 ERA season, driven by fine control. But that's all he had. The soft-tosser had an xERA nearly a run higher and struck out a mere 39 batters in 98 IP in the second half. Any ERA under 5.00 this year could be a gift.
2007: 12-9, 3.87 ERA in 165 IP
2008: 9-16, 5.76 ERA in 183 IP
Joe Blanton:
A notable demonstration of the difference between a sub-2.0 and 3.5 Cmd. Other skills were mostly unchanged. Even Greg Maddux's career Ctl isn't this good -- and he's no Maddux. So expect a small regression.
(Truesdell)
2007: 3.95 ERA, 1.6 Ctl, 3.5 Cmd
2008: 4.69 ERA, 3.0 Ctl, 1.7 Cmd
Dallas Braden
went 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA last year, which means his name will not be coming up for bid this month. But OAK's pitching staff will be fluid in 2008, and Braden's 2.7 command ratio, 64% strand and 33% hit rate all point to improvement. This is the type of guy who you tuck away on a deep reserve list and wait it out.
2007: 6.72 ERA
2008: 4.14 ERA
Bill Bray
has been mentioned in the past as a future closer candidate, but with the acquisition of Francisco Cordero, that door now appears to be closed. Still, if he's healthy, he owns a superb skills set and is a perfect addition to an NL reserve list.
2007: 6.28 ERA
2008: 2.87 ERA
Taylor Buchholz
won't generate much interest based on his 4.23 ERA and home ballpark, but a 3.1 command ratio is nothing to sneeze at. Excellent control and slight ground ball tendency will play well in Coors; only 32%/69% hit/strand rates stand in his way to take the next step.
2007: 4.23 ERA
2008: 2.17 ERA
David Bush
is baaaack. Despite everything that has gone wrong, his underlying skills remain very strong. His perpetually low strand rate - an indication that he loses composure with men on base - and his struggles in the first inning - an indication that he takes awhile to get loose - are correctable maladies. He's still only 28. Do you feel lucky?
2007: 5.12 ERA
2008: 4.18 ERA, including 3.34 in the second half
Johnny Cueto:
Cueto's 2007 MLE shows a pitcher with a truly dominant skill set highlighted by a 180 BPV, but we need to remind ourselves that we shouldn't yet reserve a spot for him in the Hall of Fame based on just one start. If you own Johnny Cueto, congratulations ... you should be in for a fun ride. But if you are an envious non-owner, don't worry. The Great American Ball Park giveth and The Great American Ball Park taketh away. There are certain to be opportunities after inevitable bumps along the way to try to grab Cueto from impatient owners. Either way, Johnny Cueto should be a fun pitcher to watch ... for a long, long time.
(Hoffer)
2008: 9-14, 4.81 ERA
John Danks
exhibited fine control (3.5 Ctl) and decent strikeout ability (7.1 Dom), but he allowed 28 HR. On the bright side, he did improve throughout '07 and finished strong. He has a career 9.3 Dom in his minor league career. His arsenal is good enough to be a mid-rotation starter in the Majors. With more experience and polish, there are many reasons why he'll be a solid starter for several years.
(Gordon)
2007: 6-13, 5.50 ERA in 139 IP
2008: 12-9, 3.32 ERA in 195 IP
Justin Duchscherer
is coming off an injury-shortened season, from which he was coming off some impressive skills out of the bullpen. Owners may be reluctant to bid him up as a starter due to the injury, but if he's healthy, there's a $20 pitcher here. How much you are willing to invest in that possibility depends upon your own risk tolerance, but he is exactly the type of player who gets scooped up for a few bucks and leads his lucky team to a title.
2007: 3-3, 4.96 ERA in 16 IP, $2
2008: 10-8, 2.54 ERA in 142 IP, $19
Kevin Gregg
is on this list because many people don't think he can hold the Marlins' closer job, what with high-skilled arms like Matt Lindstrom on his heels. Yes, there are cracks in the armor (elevated walk rate, high flyball rate), but he is still the incumbent. Anytime you can grab a 30-save incumbent at a discount - which is what is happening here - you do it.
2007: 32 saves, 3.54 ERA
2008: 29 saves, 3.41 ERA
Rich Harden:
If healthy, the combination of 2004's relative durability and 2005's skill emergence is, as always, tantalizing. Of course, Harden has never put those two characteristics together. To split the difference and see 150 IP of low-3.00s ERA would be a major victory for Harden and his owners, and probably represents the best-case scenario that remains grounded in any sense of reality.
(Murphy)
2007: 1-2, 2.45 ERA in 26 IP
2008: 10-2, 2.07 ERA in 148 IP
Joel Hanrahan:
By almost any standard, Joel Hanrahan has done enough to win a job in WAS. He is out of options, which enhances his chances to begin with. But performance-wise, Hanrahan has stepped up: 0 runs, 1 BB, and 12 K in 8.0 innings. That kind of dominance is worth keeping an eye on as he likely does some long-relief work in WAS to start the season.
(Murphy)
2007: 6.00 ERA in 51 IP
2008: 3.95 ERA in 84 IP, and 9 saves
J.P. Howell
has a 5-14 record and a 6.36 ERA over the past three seasons in the Majors but a command ratio trend (1.6, 2.3, 3.1) that begs for a second look. There is a problem with the longball, and his strand rate could use some bullpen support, but consistent sub-4.00 xERAs say there is something worth speculating on here.
2007: 7.59 ERA in 51 IP
2008: 2.22 ERA in 89 IP
Jason Isringhausen: In St. Louis, the Cardinals intend for Jason Isringhausen to close as usual. But Isringhausen's BPIs have eroded. He is projected for a 4.3 BB/9 and 1.8 K/BB--certainly not good enough for LIMA selection.
(Dennis)
2007: 32 saves, 2.48 ERA
2008: 12 saves, 5.70 ERA
Kyle Kendrick:
This extreme soft-tosser leaves his fate in the hands of the defense (which may not be a horrible thing in Philly this year), which means he does not control his own destiny. As for his 4.45 xERA, well, just don't overbid.
2007: 3.87 ERA
2008: 5.49 ERA
Hong-Chih Kuo is a serious injury risk, but there is obvious upside with the 100+ BPV and 11.0 K/9. Kuo can move up and seize a stronger role with these BPIs, but only if he stays on the field. Monitor his innings and make sure that his walk rate and strikeout rate remain in control, but if those things are present, get him.
(Dennis)
2007: 7.42 ERA in 30 IP
2008: 2.14 ERA in 80 IP
Cliff Lee:
2007 was simply a debacle for Lee, but we also know that he owns far better skills (2.8 CMD, 71 BPV over 202 IP in 2005). At 29, he's not too old to reclaim them. As an LHP, he is even at the right age for a step forward. Given an opportunity, there are similarities between Lee's 2008 and the emergence of Ted Lilly in CHC a year ago. Whether in CLE or elsewhere as part of a spring trade, Lee is worth grabbing for a buck if he has an opportunity, and worth a reserve pick even if he doesn't have a clear role on Opening Day.
(Murphy)
2007: 5-8, 6.29 ERA
2008: 22-3, 2.54 ERA
Jensen Lewis:
23-year olds Edward Mujica and Jensen Lewis are both projected 100+ BPV studs filling out middle relief for the Indians. 100+ BPV studs are always relievers who should be on your short list of LIMA relievers, destined for greater roles, if they can avoid injury. That makes Mujica and Lewis prime candidates to excel in 2008. Lewis is better established and should be a safer pick.
(Dennis)
2007: 0 saves
2008: 13 saves
Brad Lidge:
Lidge's Dom rate has declined steadily since 2004, and consequently his xERA has been on the rise. But the real culprit in his struggles has been the home run ball. The leap in homers from 2005 to 2006 was the result of an unlucky hr/f rate, but even as that rate regressed last season, Lidge's hr/9 remained elevated as the result of an increase in FB percentage from 33% to 43%. However, Lidge gave up a disproportionate number of home runs at Minute Maid Park which suggests that, since his BPV remains closer-worthy, a change in venue might trigger a change in his fortunes.
(Nichols)
2006: 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
2007: 19 saves, 3.36 ERA
2008: 41 saves, 1.95 ERA
Kyle Lohse
is an interesting speculation. While a sub-4.00 ERA is becoming more of a pipe dream with each passing year, his peripherals do meet the LIMA filters. The problem? A low strand rate (though he's done better in the past) and a slightly elevated hit rate. These problems can be fixed, or at least tempered, if he signs with a team in a conducive environment (read: pitchers' park).
2007: 9-12, 4.62 ERA
2008: 15-6, 3.78 ERA
Paul Maholm
was a "sleeper" three springs ago and his BPIs haven't changed all that much. While his strikeout rate was down last year, his control improved and he remains a groundball pitcher. A 4.12 xERA next to his 5.01 real ERA shows upside. This southpaw has to start doing better against right-handed batters; even a tick better and he takes the next step up.
2007: 5.02 ERA, .305 OBA vs RHers
2008: 3.71 ERA, .279 OBA vs RHers
Brad Penny
posted an excellent 16-win, 3.03 ERA season until you look at his half season splits. From ERA (2.04 first half, 4.06 second half), to WHIP (1.12/1.50), to OBA (.233/.273), to xERA (3.67/4.77), to command (2.5/1.4), to BPV (91/47)... this oft-injured pitcher may have stamina issues after posting his first 200 IP season since 2001.
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA in 208 IP
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA in 95 IP
Wandy Rodriguez
has plenty of detractors scared off by his extreme home (2.94 ERA) / road (6.37) splits. But 2007 was the first time his splits were so extreme (he was just bad everywhere in 2005-2006). More important are his solid and improving BPIs (BPV trend: 14, 26, 30, 71). If he can get his strand rate up over 70%, a sub-4.00 ERA will be in sight.
2007: 4.58 ERA, 71 BPV, 68% strand rate
2008: 3.54 ERA, 88 BPV, 76% strand rate
Ervin Santana:
With John Lackey out, Ervin Santana has an enhanced opportunity to entrench himself in the LAA rotation. So far this March, he seems to be accepting that opportunity: 3 BB/11 K, only 1 HR allowed in 13.7 IP. Given his healthy 57 BPV from the 2nd half of 2007, Santana looks capable of taking a good run at reclaiming his 2006 success, when he earned $21.
(Murphy)
2007: 7-14, 5.76 ERA
2008: 16-7, 3.49 ERA
Joe Saunders
earned about $5 last year behind an 8-win 4.44 ERA season. But it was a 35% hit rate and 64% strand rate that did him in; his command ratio trend (1.4, 1.7, 2.1, 2.3) is much more encouraging.
2007: 4.44 ERA
2008: 3.41 ERA
Kevin Slowey
posted a 4.73 ERA in MIN last year but his overall 2007 BPIs were far more impressive... 1.4 bb/9, 4.2 command, 95 BPV. There are problem areas - most notably a 50% flyball rate - but there is upside, if not in 2008, than 2009.
2007: 4.73 ERA, 50% flyball rate
2008: 3.99 ERA, 45% flaball rate
Andrew Sonnanstine
is another trendy breakout target, but we're probably a year too early. Yes, he's consistently posted 3.0-plus command and 75-plus BPVs. But his single year of MLB experience was unimpressive, and his 43% flyball rate and .318 BA vs LHB need to be corrected. A bump in his 64% strand rate will yield improvement in 2008, but the sub-4.00 ERA is probably still a year off.
2007: 6-10, 5.85 ERA in 130 IP, 64% strand rate
2008: 13-9, 4.38 ERA in 193 IP, 68% strand rate
Edinson Volquez:
Since his 2007 demotion, Volquez has been very effective (16-3 with a 3.64 ERA with 2.9 Cmd between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors). He remains a risky pick at this point, but he has looked good this spring in Cincinnati and is definitely worth a late-round speculative pick in NL only leagues.
(Gordon)
2007: 2-1, 4.50 ERA in 34 IP
2008: 17-6, 3.21 ERA in 196 IP
Dan Wheeler
saved 11 games last year but with a 5.30 ERA. That's the bad news. The good news is that his xERA was 3.64 and he hasn't posted a BPV under 97 since 2004.
2007: 11 saves, 5.30 ERA
2008: 13 saves, 3.12 ERA
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