Baseball HQ's 2007 Track Record
Need player projections? Pick up any one of a dozen spring magazines or browse over to any fantasy baseball web site. But what you're really getting are three-year averages, subjective opinions or canned, inert numbers. Real performance forecasting is a living, breathing process that looks beyond faulty statistics and focuses on the analysis of component skills and leading indicators. That's what we do at Baseball HQ; it's a process that has been the foundation of our publications since 1993.
In 2007, this process produced a set of projections that could have made the difference in your fantasy season. Here is a look at how the analysis works, and some of the results...
2007 Batters
Jeff Baker:
Drafters will be enamored by his .368 BA in 57 AB, but he struck out 14 times and walked only once during that time. How will he adjust when pitchers catch on that they don't have to throw him anything in the strike zone?
2006: 5-21-.368 in 57 AB
2007: 4-12-.222 in 144 AB
Jason Bartlett:
A 2nd half power drop (PX of 90 to 55) fed into a drop in his xBA (.308 to .266). Outward stats don't show a 2nd half slide and make his .306 batting average vulnerable. He could lose as many as 40 points on that.
2006: .306 BA
2007: .265 BA
Jason Bay:
Consistent output, but buyers might hope for more than consistency from 28-year-old. Mid-70 ct% is a headwind for further gains.
2006: 35-109-.286
2007: 21-84-.247
Emil Brown:
At face value, 2005-06 were two very similar seasons, with one exception... An 80-point drop in BA vs LHP might be an aberration, but at 32, it's more likely a forewarning of a potential crack in the skills set.
2005: 17 HR, .286
2006: 15 HR, .287
2007: 6 HR, .257
Chris Burke:
Battled shoulder woes all year.
PRO: first-half LD, OBA
CON: 2nd half LD, drop in SBO, ct%.
Will need to improve plate patience and run more often to make an impact. DN: .250, under 10 SB
2006: 9-40-11-.276
2007: 6-28-9-.229
Eric Byrnes:
Power spike in 2006 is tempered by the 2nd half declines in his PX (155 to 104) and rise in groundball rate (34% to 40%). A return to 25+ HRs is not a guarantee.
2006: 26 HR in 562 AB
2007: 21 HR in 626 AB
Miguel Cabrera:
His 7-HR power drop in 2006 may stall bidding a bit, but you gotta love the improved plate patience. High h% means his BA will come down a bit, but you should be throwing money with wanton abandon at this not-yet-24-year-old.
2005: 33 HR, .323
2006: 26 HR, .339
2007: 34 HR, .320
Robinson Cano:
Elevated H% is the reason he competed for the batting title in his first full year. 2nd half G/L/F says 20 HR are within reach, but Eye and bb% say no way he repeats .340. In short, expect more power, less BA.
2006: 15 HR, .342
2007: 19 HR, .306
Jose Castillo:
Tale of two halves: One says he's a starting 2B and the other says he's a utility infielder. Huge 2nd half drops across the board... OBA (.330 to .260), xBA (.280 to .237), PX (106 to 53), contact rate (84% to 78%). At age 26, running out of time to prove himself. We're betting against.
2006: 14-65-.253 in 518 AB
2007: 0-24-.244 in 221 AB
Ronny Cedeno:
151 games of mediocrity. Horrendous eye, average speed, lack of power and a 2nd half that was truly scary -- OBA (.300 to .236), xBA (.253 to .209), contact rate (83% to 76%). That 2nd half is your benchmark. Sim game nightmare. Be afraid. DN: 250 AB, .225
2006: 6-41-.245 in 534 AB
2007: 4-13-.203 in 74 AB
Tony Clark:
Battled shoulder issues all year, eventually undergoing surgery. Power should return, but he will once again have to earn his ABs. Set your expectations against 2003-04 levels.
2003: 16 HR, .232 in 254 AB
2004: 16 HR, .221 in 253 AB
2005: 30 HR, .304 in 349 AB
2006: 6 HR, .197 in 132 AB
2007: 17 HR, .249 in 221 AB
Ray Durham:
At face value, a career power year. In reality, he hit 14 of his 26 HRs between June 11 and July 25. That's 14 HRs in 38 games, and 12 HRs in the other 99 games. Those were 38 great games, but that's all they were.
2006: 26 HR, .293
2007: 11 HR, .218
Johnny Estrada:
Rising FB trend validates double-digit HR, so he could reach that mark again. But 2nd half xBA decline (.292 to .264) calls BA into question, and he's being less and less selective. Another .300 season may be a stretch.
2006: 11 HR, .302
2007: 10 HR, .278
Adrian Gonzalez:
Superb breakout season, but a rookie's 2nd half is the real indicator. His 14-HR, .326 BA levels point to a potential 30-HR season in 2007. UP: 30 HR, 100 RBI
2006: 24-82-.304
2007: 30-100-.282
Shawn Green:
It's been five years since he hit 42 HRs, but some drafters still see him as a safe mid-level power source. Twenty HRs will once again be a stretch as PX and FB declines paint a grim picture.
2005: 22 HR
2006: 15 HR
2007: 10 HR
Khalil Greene:
On the surface, growth continues to stall. We?ll blame a torn ligament in his finger for making him useless in Aug/ Sept. If healthy, his first 20 HR season is coming. UP: 20-80-.275
2006: 15-55-.245
2007: 27-97-.254
Brad Hawpe:
Gotta love the PX and FB% growth, especially in 1st half. In fact, he managed a 130 PX in every month except July. UP: 30-100-.300
2006: 22-84-.293
2007: 29-116-.291
Ryan Howard:
In this case, don't pay for the allure of 58 HRs. A sub-70% contact rate and sub-40% flyball rate weigh heavily on a repeat performance for both power and BA. How many players can you name who have hit over 50 HRs in consecutive seasons? And who didn't take steroids? Furthermore, teams will simply stop pitching to him.
2006: 58 HR, .313 BA, 16% walk rate
2007: 47 HR, .268, 17% walk rate
Matt Holliday:
Lofty heights, but there are reasons to expect more growth: Contact rate was only 82%, .373 at Coors w/the humidor, GB% continues to slip. At minimum, we like odds of a repeat.
2006: 34-114-.326
2007: 36-137-.340
Tadahito Iguchi:
2005 and 2006 were outwardly similar seasons, but both PX and SX sank, in a continuation of 3-year trends. Caution.
2005: 15-71-.278
2006: 18-67-.281
2007: 9-43-.267
Jacques Jones:
It's hard to imagine any power upside with a GB% in the high 50's. That, and his widening platoon splits are worrisome.
2006: 27-81-.285 in 533 AB
2007: 5-66-.285 in 453 AB
Jason Kendall:
Saved his season with big 2nd half, but H% and LD% will be tough to repeat. xBA, downward Eye trend give reason to feel nervous about future BA output. If H% drops like it did in '05... DN: .260 BA.
2006: .295 BA
2007: .242 BA
Mike Lamb:
.307 BA might garner some interest, but xBA pegs him as .280-ish hitter. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not xBA.
2006: .307 BA
2007: .289 BA
Nick Markakis:
Initially struggled with jump from Double-A, but impressed in 2H despite hitting the wall in Sept. .300 is a good possibility, and there are hints that 20 HR may be within reach soon as well.
2006: 16-62-.291
2007: 23-112-.300
Russ Martin:
Seized starting catcher job and never let go. Maintained Eye and BPIs from minors, and .297 xBA indicates there's BA upside. Only mediocre power, but he's still developing.
2006: 10-.65-.282
2007: 19-87-.293
Yadier Molina:
His horrible .216 BA hid a 90% contact rate and rising PX and flyball trends. His xBA of .262 showed the upside to last year; for 2007, a 10 HR, .275 season would not be a stretch.
2006: 6 HR, .216
2007: 6 HR, .275
Ronny Paulino:
A .310 hitter? Hardly. An inflated 36% hit rate (his previous high was 28%) drove the average. His xBA of .252 shows what his skills should be expected to produce. MLEs show more PX potential, but needs to hit fewer GBs to produce power in the majors.
2006: 6 HR, .310
2007: 11 HR, .263
Dustin Pedroia:
Many reasons for optimism: Solid plate patience. High LD%. High ct%. Low BA in BOS was due to 19% h%. xBA (.308) shows potential. Slow start in '06 could make him a draft day bargain.
2006: 2-7-.191 in 89 AB
2007: 8-50-.317 in 520 AB
Wily Mo Pena:
A .300 hitter? Hardly. H%, xBA, and poor plate patience point to a signficantly lower BA next year.
2006: .301 BA in 276 AB
2007: .253 BA in 289 AB
Ivan Rodriguez:
Power is fading, pushed along by a rising GB%. LD rate still solid, but not what it once was. Has another .290 season in him, but at age 35, the next level of decline is in sight. DN: 10 HR, .275
2006: 13 HR, .300 BA
2007: 11 HR, .281
Freddy Sanchez:
Is .344 for real? 37% hit rate says no. But is .300 for real? Ct% and LD% say he's legit. And, based on rising PX and FB, xHR says that double-digit homers are in reach. UP: 12-15 HRs
2006: 6 HR, .344 BA
2007: 11 HR, .304 BA
Dan Uggla:
Another 2nd half decline to judge a rookie on... OBA (.360 to .314), BA (.312 to .258), contact rate (83% to 77%). Look for a sophomore slump, perhaps a very pronounced one. DN: .250
2006: .282 BA
2007: .245 BA
2007 Pitchers
Joaquin Benoit:
Joaquin Benoit has only one ERA lower than 4.89 in the past four years yet only one xERA higher than 4.00 during the same period. Tempting to give up, but you can?t ignore the BPV trend. Great end-game target.
2006: 4.86 ERA
2007: 2.85 ERA
Rafael Betancourt:
Rafael Betancourt may never get a save, but he has posted CMD ratios of 4.2 or better for three consecutive seasons. And his end-of-season value is always right around $10, a level he never gets drafted at. Automatic profit here for a minimal bid.
2004: 3.94 ERA, $9
2005: 2.81 ERA, $11
2006: 3.84 ERA, $8
2007: 1.47 ERA, $18
Taylor Buchholz:
Attracted some attention with five straight PQS-DOM outings in June. 3.95 xERA shows upside. Needs to cut down on HR/9, which would help S%.
2006: 5.89 ERA, 1.3 HR/9, 56% strand rate
2007: 4.23 ERA, 0.8 HR/9, 69% strand rate
Matt Cain:
Matt Cain had a 5.22 ERA in the first half, but finished with a 4.16 ERA, which means he was a 2nd half stud (3.38 ERA, 3.75 xERA). That second half surge was backed by a 97 BPV. He's young (only 22), but a worthy investment.
2006: 4.15 ERA
2007: 3.65 ERA
Chris Capuano:
Went out and posted the skills that would have supported 2005's breakout. 2nd half DOM plunge may be sign of burnout; formerly brittle arm has thrown a ton of IP in last two years. Bid cautiously.
2005: 18-12, 3.99 ERA, 46 BPV in 219 IP
2006: 11-12, 4.03 ERA, 85 BPV in 221 IP
2007: 5-12, 5.10 ERA, 64 BPV in 150 IP
Fausto Carmona:
Brutal outward numbers in CLE. But rising DOM and strong GB% will yield better results, as suggested by 3.36 xERA. Future role is unclear, but worth stashing away.
2006: 1-10, 5.42 ERA
2007: 19-8, 3.06 ERA
Jose Contreras:
CTL is improving and DOM declining. That approach will cause problems as DOM drops toward key 5.6 level. Signs of decline are creeping in, don't get caught holding him when the cliff comes.
2005: 15-7, 3.61 ERA, 6.8 Dom
2006: 13-9, 4.27 ERA, 6.2 Dom
2007: 10-17, 5.57 ERA, 5.4 Dom
Francisco Cordero:
Francisco Cordero lost the closer role in Texas, then reclaimed it in Milwaukee. But he lost it in Texas, which means he's a risk, right? For all the scrambling about "roles," he had a 101 BPV in Texas and a 97 BPV in Milwaukee. Where is the problem? He is one of the lowest risk closer options out there right now.
2006: 22 saves, 3.70 ERA
2007: 44 saves, 2.98 ERA
Kelvin Escobar:
Kelvim Escobar has been teasing us for years. He snuck under a 4.00 ERA in 2004, setting the stage for 2005. He posted a 3.04 ERA in 2005 but got hurt after 59 IP. And last year he started out slow, only to post a 3.10 ERA and 102 BPV in the 2nd half. Does he put it all together at age 31? The stage is set for our upside projection of 18 wins, 3.00 ERA.
2006: 11 wins, 3.61 ERA
2007: 18 wins, 3.40 ERA
Matt Garza:
Despite getting hit hard in majors, had a decent Sept. skill-wise (65 BPV, 3.75 xERA). If you can scoop him up at a discount, do so... excellent longer-term investment.
2006: 5.76 ERA
2007: 3.69 ERA
Kevin Gregg:
Kevin Gregg has yet to get his ERA under 4.15 nor his xERA above 3.79. Most owners will remember getting burned by him in his infrequent starts, but there is a hidden gem here in relief. In the unsettled FLA pen, he could emerge.
2005: 5.05 ERA
2006: 4.15 ERA
2007: 3.54 ERA, 32 saves
Zack Greinke:
Forgotten man after walking out of camp and spending year at Double-A, but despite all his troubles, he has maintained stellar BPIs throughout. He went 7-2 with a 3.59 ERA in the 2nd half last year, backed by 4.7 CMD and 125 BPV. Potential sleeper (3.41 xERA shows the upside).
2005: 5.80 ERA in 183 IP
2006: 4.34 ERA in 106 IP in Double-A
2007: 3.69 ERA in 122 IP
Cole Hamels:
As good as advertised. Struggled with control at first, but had 4.0 CMD in last 11 starts. Breakout could come any time. UP: Sub-3.00 ERA
2006: 9-8, 4.08 ERA
2007: 15-5, 3.39 ERA
Dan Haren:
ERA doesn't show it, but 2006 was his best year. DOM/DIS pct. was 53/6. Great command, though a touch of gopheritis. Time is right to expect a breakout. UP: 20 wins, 3.00 ERA
2005: 14-12, 3.73 ERA
2006: 14-13, 4.12 ERA
2007: 15-9, 3.07 ERA
Clay Hensley:
Clay Hensley looks good with his 3.71 ERA in San Diego. But that favorable ballpark may be the only thing keeping his numbers in check. His BPIs are borderline and could easily push his ERA up over 4.00.
2006: 3.71 ERA
2007: 6.84 ERA
Felix Hernandez:
After disappointing with a 4.52 ERA, most drafters are of the "fool me twice, shame on me" mentality. However, his 2.85 xERA and inflated 17% hr/f rate point to solid skills and bad luck. As all regress, his xERA becomes the target. He'll turn 21 soon after Opening Day. It only gets better from here.
2006: 12-14, 4.52 ERA
2007: 14-7, 3.92 ERA
Chuck James:
Results were better than his BPIs, but all in all, a respectable debut. High FB rate could mean some HRs, so don't pay for a sub-4.00 ERA.
2006: 3.78 ERA, 1.4 HR/9
2007: 4.24 ERA, 1.8 HR/9
John Lackey:
A rough August kept him from posting career numbers. Things to like: dominates RHers, 2nd-half DOM, 61/18 DOM/DIS. This may be the year he puts it all together... UP: 18 wins, 3.25 ERA.
2006: 13-11, 3.56 ERA
2007: 19-9, 3.01 ERA
Brad Lidge:
Brad Lidge will scare away bidders with his 5.28 ERA, but most of his BPIs held steady. The culprits: a rise in walk rate, an inflated hr/f rate and a 20% drop in strand rate. As a hard-thrower with control issues, odds are against him returning to his 2005 form, but there was enough bad luck in '06 that he'll be undervalued; take a shot.
2005: 4-4, 2.31 ERA
2006: 1-5, 5.28 ERA
2007: 5-3, 3.36 ERA
Ted Lilly:
Returned to form after injury- plagued 2005. Still suffers from gopheritis and ceiling is limited by high Ctl. There are skills in his past and unfulfilled potential If he ends up on the right team: UP: sub-4.00 ERA
2005: 10-11, 5.57 ERA
2006: 15-13, 4.32 ERA
2007: 15-8, 3.83 ERA
Ruddy Lugo:
There's less here than met the eye in '06. Sub-optimal skills yield an xERA that suggests low ERA was an illusion. Slightly low H% also implies higher WHIP. Pass.
2006: 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2007: 5.40 ERA, 1.76 WHIP
Gil Meche:
Signs of life:
- Improved DOM
- Declining FB rate
- xERA below 4.00
- 50% PQS dominant starts
Ctl 4.7 on road. If he solves that, he could take the next step.
2006: 4.50 ERA
2007: 3.69 ERA, 2.6 Ctl on the road.
Jose Mesa:
Reasons he'll crash in 2007:
- Rising xERA trend
- Declining DOM and CMD
- 2nd half skills debacle
- Age 40
DN: ERA over 5.00
2006: 3.87 ERA
2007: 7.11 ERA
Jake Peavy:
Low S% and giant leap in FB% hurt him in 1st half, loss of Ctl got him in the 2nd. Surface stats will make some owners gun shy; 9.6 Dom, 3.27 xERA and 105 BPV show there's little to worry about. Bid with confidence.
2006: 11-14, 4.10 ERA
2007: 19-6, 2.54 ERA
Brad Penny:
Surface stats from last three seasons make it look like he's declining (3.15 ERA, 3.91, 4.33), but BPIs have been flat going back four years (check out the xERAs -- 3.75, 3.69, 3.59, 3.70). If he can stay healthy all year... UP: 18 Wins, 3.50 ERA.
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA
2007: 16-4, 3.03
Oliver Perez:
Two years of too many walks and HR, but he still has the Dom, he's only 25, in new environs and showed a glimmer of 2nd half life (2.2 Cmd). And he still own those '04 skills. Speculate.
2004: 12-10, 2.98 ERA
2005: 7-5, 5.85 ERA
2006: 3-13, 6.55 ERA
2007: 15-10, 3.56 ERA
James Shields:
The makings of an impact starting pitcher:
- CMD trend (1.4, 2.9, 3.6)
- 3.41 xERA
- 48/10 DOM/DIS%
- GB approach
- 100+ BPV in Jun and Aug
Still inconsistent, but tuck away.
2006: 6-8, 4.84 ERA
2007: 12-8, 3.85 ERA
Ian Snell:
Ian Snell has several things going for him that offset last year's 4.74 ERA. His xERA is a full run lower than his ERA. He has solid BPIs, led by a 2.3 CMD. He keeps the ball on the ground. An inflated 15% hr/f rate will regress. Finding an out pitch against LHers will stand between moderate improvement and this... UP: 3.50 ERA
2006: 4.74 ERA
2007: 3.76 ERA
Javier Vazquez:
Javier Vazquez hasn't seen a sub-4.00 ERA since he was in Montreal in 2003 but his BPIs have remained stellar. The problem has been some low strand rates and inflated hr/f rates -- both problems that are out of his control. All it will take is some luck-induced regression to get his ERA back on track.
2004: 14-10, 4.91 ERA
2005: 11-15, 4.43 ERA
2006: 11-12, 4.84 ERA
2007: 15-8, 3.74 ERA
Dontrelle Willis:
Red flags abound. Another 220+ IP season, with BF/G at an all time high. Now witness CMD splits: 1st half DOM way down, then he tried to dial it up in 2H, but Ctl nosedived. Burnout?... DN: 4.25+ ERA
2005: 2.63 ERA
2006: 3.87 ERA
2007: 5.17 ERA
C.J. Wilson:
Another solid growth season. Impressive DOM spike while maintaining Ctl, with terrific CMD overall in 2nd half. If his hr/f luck holds to 2nd half levels, he's got something. Worth a late flyer as a LIMA sleeper.
2006: 4.08 ERA
2007: 3.03 ERA
Carlos Zambrano:
Carlos Zambrano is a stud. He's been going as a top 40 player in mixed leagues based on his long track record of superb performance. The length of that track record (nearly 1000 IP before age 26) is part of the problem; all those innings may be slowing chipping away at his studness. Over the past three years, his ERA has risen, his control and CMD have declined and he's giving up more and more flyballs. And his back has gotten creaky. All the IP haven't sent him down the Prior/Wood path yet, but there are small warning signs... DN: 4.50 ERA, in '07 or '08
2004: 2.75 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 79 BPV, 31% FB%
2005: 3.27 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 73 BPV, 30% FB%
2006: 3.41 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 66 BPV, 36% FB%
2007: 3.95 ERA, 4.16 xERA, 61 BPV, 37% FB%
Barry Zito:
Barry Zito continues to live off his Cy Young award and former protective Oakland address. However, it's been five years of rising walk rates, declining CMD, and xERAs over 4.00. San Francisco won't help. Someone will pay for an ace, and will get a staff filler.
2005: 14-13, 3.87 ERA
2006: 16-10, 3.83 ERA
2007: 11-13, 4.53 ERA
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