Baseball HQ's 2006 Track Record
Need player projections? Pick up any one of a dozen spring magazines or browse over to any fantasy baseball web site. But what you're really getting are three-year averages, subjective opinions or canned, inert numbers. Real performance forecasting is a living, breathing process that looks beyond faulty statistics and focuses on the analysis of component skills and leading indicators. That's what we do at Baseball HQ; it's a process that has been the foundation of our publications since 1993.
In 2006, this process produced a set of projections that could have made the difference in your fantasy season. Here is a look at how the analysis works, and some of the results...
2006 Batters
Garrett Atkins: After one season under his belt, Atkins' results are not likely going to cause any bidding wars. The hints that there might be something more lie in his 2nd half BPIs. A 5% shift in GB to FB tendency could foretell some power improvement. And despite a 45 point drop in his BA in the 2nd half, his xBA was stable in the .290s all season long.
2005: 13 HR, .287
2006: 29 HR, .329
Michael Barrett: The positive trends are remarkable... rising percent of line drives (16%, 17%, 20%, 24%),
declining ground ball rate (54%, 53%, 48%, 48%, 43%), rising Power Index (74, 100, 109, 118, 127), rising expected batting average (.267, .276, .305, .320) and rising BA versus LHers (.205, .248, .320). It all adds up to the potential for a .300 BA and 20-plus HR season.
2005: 16 HR, .276
2006: 16 HR (but on pace for 19 when hurt), .307
Lance Berkman: It's been three years since he hit 42 HRs and he hasn't hit more than 30 since, but this year could see the return of that output. His 2nd half last year displayed vintage skills -- 18 HRs, .300 BA -- and BPIs comparable to 2002. If he's healthy this spring, go an extra buck. UP: 40 HR, .320
2005: 24 HR, .293
2006: 45 HR, .315
Angel Berroa: While 2005 looked like a rebound from his sophomore slump, the BPIs are not positive. An xBA of .249 -- even lower than 2004 -- does not bode well for this year. A 20-30 point drop in his batting average would not be surprising. This is a single-digit value player. DN: .250 BA
2005: 11 HR, .270 ($13)
2006: 9 HR, .234 ($6)
Hank Blalock's batting average versus southpaws during his MLB career (.067, .209, .282, .196) is concerning. That 2005 regression has to temper any expectations for this coming season.
2005: 25 HR, .263
2006: 16 HR, .266
Willie Bloomquist is pushing 30 and has yet to see 250 AB in a major league season, but when he gets on base, he runs. He's still a sleeper who consistently goes for $1 at the auction table and delivers double-digit SBs.
2005: 14 SB, .257 ($6)
2006: 16 SB, .247 ($6)
Eric Byrnes: Bad season but good news:
- HRs plummeted but PX didn't
- H% explains 50-point BA drop
- xBA says BA will improve
That typically means we can expect a rebound.
2004: 20 HR, .283
2005: 10 HR, .226
2006: 26 HR, .267
Luis Castillo: It's been four years since he stole 48 bases, a level that he probably won't ever see again. However, the steep decline to last year's 10 bags is going to depress expectations more than necessary. He still has speed skills. SBO explains the declining SBs - he's simply not running as much as he used to, likely due to the leg problems he's battled. On a new team and supposedly healthy, it would not be a surprise to see him swipe 20-25 bases in 2006.
2005: 10 SB
2006: 25 SB
Endy Chavez: Wasn't on base enough to take advantage of his speed. xBA, H% says his BA will rebound next year. If he finds regular playing time, SBO and SX will translate to SBs.
2005: 2 SB, .216
2006: 12 SB, .306
Jermaine Dye: xBA level is the highest in 5 years, and with a rising PX and LD% you can expect another good year. Sure go ahead -- bid an extra buck.
2005: 31 HR, .274
2006: 44 HR, .315
Jim Edmonds: Hasn't seen 500 AB since 2001 due to his hard-charging style of play. All the bumps and bruises may be starting to wear him down. BPIs were off across-the- board and you have to think there is more decline ahead.
2005: 29 HR, .263
2006: 19 HR, .257
Mark Ellis may generate some mid-game bidding wars based on his .316 return, and .332 second half, but he is not a .300 hitter. High 34% hit rate goes a long way to explaining how he hit 34-points above his xBA.
2005: .316 BA
2006: .249 BA
Johnny Estrada might have somewhat depressed value after his injury-marred sophomore year, but his BPIs held steady, and in some cases improved. .300 xBA suggests that a rebound to '04 levels is possible.
2004: 9 HR, .314
2005: 4 HR, .261
2006: 11 HR, .302
Jason Giambi: BA will regress but power should be back to stay.
2005: 32 HR, .271
2006: 36 HR, .251
Brian Giles: His decline hasn't been obvious thanks to fantastic skills. But his PX and FB% could make 20 HR a distant memory. Start to temper your expectations.
2004: 23 HR, .284
2005: 15 HR, .301
2006: 14 HR, .263
Jonny Gomes: Power bat with an open swing, he posted some nice rookie numbers last year. But a horrible sub-70% contact rate pushed his xBA down well below .250 and his declining monthly OPS levels (1.013, .920, .910, .825) foretell some sophomore struggles. Steep BA downside. Don't overbid.
2005: .282 BA
2006: .216 BA
Shawn Green: Teased us with his power in '01 and '02 but the bottom line is that he is a groundball hitter, period. So, his HRs are not coming back.
2004: 28 HR
2005: 22 HR
2006: 15 HR
Travis Hafner: Quietly, he's become one of the game's elite sluggers. Injuries cut into season totals, but that just means he'll be a draft-day bargain. If healthy for a full season? 2nd half times two... UP: 40-120-.320
2005: 33-108-.305
2006: 42-117-.308
Matt Holliday: In 2005, he had a huge 2nd half. He's already batting .300. His skill trends say that 20-25 HRs is the next step, but 30 HRs would not be a surprise.
2005: 19 HR, .307
2006: 34 HR, .326
Brandon Inge: While his power may be legit, there is downside in his batting average. His BAs the past two years were .287 and .261. The concurrent xBAs were .258 and .247. It's quite possible that 2006 will bring 20 HRs and a .240 BA.
2005: 16 HR, .261
2006: 27 HR, .253
Maicer Izturis: He's been overmatched in two MLB stints, but there are some really nice skills here. Fine ct% and SX suggest BA upside. These and bb% point to SB upside. Watch this one.
2005: .246 BA
2006: .293 BA, 14 SB
Austin Kearns has bounced between the majors and minors for four seasons now, and many folks have forgotten that, at one time, he was more highly regarded than Adam Dunn. Last year's 18-HR, .240 BA performance will spur some renewed interest, but probably less than it should. That .240 BA is the killer, but his xBA showed a level at least 30 points higher. How much would you pay for the possibility of 25-90-.270?
2005: 18-67-.240
2006: 24-86-.264
Adam Kennedy: High H% means BA could come down. Increased GB% over past two seasons may mean that double-digit HR are a thing of the past.
2004: 10 HR, .278
2005: 2 HR, .300
2006: 4 HR, .273
Carlos Lee will likely get bid up into the high $20s, but this may be the year he becomes a $30 star. His PX trend (122, 126, 134) points to 35-40 HR potential and his low .265 BA last year masked a .291 xBA. If bidding stops at $29, say the magic word.
2005: 32 HR, .265 ($26)
2006: 37 HR, .300 ($30)
Jose Lopez: Needs more patience but skills transferred well to majors. Stable PX could mean return to double-digit HR. The reason I have him on the list now is because of his high contact rate, xBA levels that are 20 points higher than his actual BA, and the likelihood that, when bidding stops at $5 or $8, even $10 could net you a profit.
2005: 2 HR, .247
2006: 10 HR, .282 ($14)
Mike Lowell: There are lots of reasons to be risk-averse here, however, in early mock drafts, he has been nearly written off. Don't. For starters, his .236 BA was unlucky; xBA says it should have been .269 (still below par, but more within possible random variance). His power outage is far more troubling, but he's moving from a ballpark that depresses power by 22% to one that lifts it by 13%. Bidding is likely going to stop short of $15 for a batter who was a consistent low-$20s buy. $15 should be safe.
2005: 8 HR, .236 ($8)
2006: 20 HR, .284 ($15)
Gary Matthews, Jr.: Depressed hit rate and LD% served to knock nearly 20 points off his BA, but xBA says to expect that to bounce back. If 2H power display is for real, there may a breakout year ahead.
2005: 17-55-.255
2006: 19-79-.313
Melvin Mora: For two years, inflated hit rates created a faux .300 BA; that returned to normal in '05. Few remember that prior to '02, it was a decade of HR futility. That may stay for a bit longer but the joyride could be ending soon.
2005: 27 HR
2006: 16 HR
Magglio Ordonez: '05 skills identical to past years, but power indicators were all well down. Patience and Ct% indicate continued high BA and decent RBI production, but 25 HR looks like a ceiling.
2003: 29 HR, .317
2004: 9 HR, .292
2005: 8 HR, .302
2006: 24 HR, .298
Jhonny Peralta: Solid 2nd half bodes well for his future, however, a few warning signs... High BA depended on a 35% Hit Rate and not fully supported by low Ct%. Expect some growing pains in '06.
2005: 24 HR, .292
2006: 13 HR, .257
Scott Podsednik: If you try to figure out his HR, SB and BA trends from his 3-year output alone, you'll be wasting your time. A look at PX, SX and xBA reveals the truth... Power down, speed down, BA down. All gradual declines, but still down.
2005: 59 SB, .290
2006: 40 SB, .261
Albert Pujols: We had projected a 50-HR season last year, and while he failed to maintain his PX trend, you still can't rule out that potential.
2005: 41 HR
2006: 49 HR
Edgar Renteria: Outwardly, it looks like his career is in a tailspin. However, his BPIs in 2005 were nearly identical to 2004, except for SBs, which don't happen in Boston anyway. Atlanta should be a better fit for his skill set. At minimum, you should pay for 15-20 SBs, which most owners won't accurately account for.
2005: 8 HR, 9 SB, .276
2006: 14 HR, 17 SB, .293
Dave Roberts stole 23 bases, but career-low SBO says that number could have been twice as high. His ct%, GB%, and SX should be spelling a higher BA, and that would further fuel his thieving. UP: .300 BA, 40 SB
2005: 23 SB, .275
2006: 49 SB, .293
Jimmy Rollins: The issue isn't talent or reliability but growth. Where do future gains come from? Best candidate is power -- Rollins is the right age.
2005: 12 HR
2006: 25 HR
Nick Swisher: Excellent buy-low opportunity as low full-season BA masks 2nd-half growth. Spikes in bb%, LD%, PX, but H% drop killed BA. Power will likely arrive before BA, but both are on their way. UP: 30 HR
2005: 21 HR, .241
2006: 35 HR, .254
Miguel Tejada hit 4 HRs total in August-September last year, a level of power futility he had only seen once before -- during his first two months in the bigs. It could mean nothing. It could mean something. For a player likely to be acquired at top dollar, do you want to take on that risk?
2000-2004 average: 31 HR
2005: 26 HR
2006: 24 HR
Marcus Thames: Murdered Triple-A pitching for 2nd straight year (1.110 OPS). If he projects for even a part-time role in March, go the extra buck. 300 AB could yield 20 HR.
2005: 7 HR in 107 AB
2006: 26 HR in 348 AB
Chad Tracy: This was a HUGE 2nd half spike in power with the only peripheral support being a 5% bump in FB rate. That's not enough. Call this a statistical outlier and expect a relapse.
2005: 27 HR
2006: 20 HR
Ty Wigginton was burned by a horrible 19% hit rate before being demoted by the Pirates. He proceeded to tear it up in Triple-A, demonstrating that lucks does even out. After all was said and done, he ended up with a .291 xBA. Add in his PX trend (91, 99, 105, 111) and something is happening here.
2005: 7 HR, .258
2006: 24 HR, .275
Preston Wilson: Rising GB rate is a concern for his power.
2005: 25 HR
2006: 17 HR
2006 Pitchers
Erik Bedard: Solid BPIs + Mazzone tutelage = who knows? A premium sleeper for 2006.
2005: 6 wins 4.02 ERA
2006: 15 wins 3.76 ERA
Joe Borowski saved 33 games in 2003, started off a bit shaky the next year prior to getting hurt, and lost his job. If he is healthy, his BPIs are potentially strong enough to succeed as a closer again. He won't go for full closer value, which is a good thing, but don't be afraid to take a chance here.
2005: 0 saves, 4.49 ERA
2006: 36 saves, 3.75 ERA
Mark Buerhle: We've been warning about burnout after a string of 220+ IP and 29+ BF/G seasons, but so far he's defied the odds. That should not deter you from bidding with just a little caution despite excellent BPIs.
2005: 16 wins, 3.12 ERA
2006: 12 wins, 4.99 ERA
Paul Byrd: Not enough Ks, a few too many flyballs and HR, but over the last three years at MLB (2002, 2004-05), an ERA of 3.85. As intriguing as these stats are, a 35-year-old with this injury track record is a huge risk.
2005: 3.75 ERA
2006: 4.98 ERA
Gustavo Chacin All the signs point to a good sell-high candidate. His 5.4 strikeout rate and 1.7 strikeout to walk ratio indicate soft skills. His 8% HR-to-flyball rate suggests a HR bump. His 50-IP jump portends burnout risk.
2005: 13 wins, 3.72 ERA
2006: 9 wins, 5.05 ERA
Shawn Chacon: Posted a 3.45 ERA in 151 IP, which was a surprise for two major reasons: 1) His previous low ERA was 4.60, and 2) he managed that solid mark despite a 1.2 K/BB ratio. With a 4.44 xERA, the odds of a strong follow-up are slim.
2005: 3.45 ERA
2006: 6.36 ERA
Jason Davis: Improving strikeout rate (4.6, 5.6, 6.5) and a solid 2nd half (3.48 xERA and 72 BPV) might be the springboard for him to take the next step up.
2005: 4.71 ERA
2006: 3.74 ERA
Ryan Dempster: Last man standing in the Cubs bullpen. 88% strand rate saved his 2nd half despite terrible control. Lots of walks and mediocre command are supposed to be offset by his extreme groundball tendencies (double plays!) but if he's the closer in '06, expect a very bumpy ride.
2005: 5-3, 33 saves, 3.13 ERA
2006: 1-9, 24 saves, 4.80 ERA
Freddy Garcia: The way you determine whether a workhorse might be on the verge of falling off the cliff is to identify any indicator that might suggest some wear. In 2005, Garcia struck out only 5.8 batters per 9 IP, his lowest level in six years.
2005: 3.87 ERA
2006: 4.53 ERA
Jon Garland: A sharp improvement in his control and strand rate was responsible for him lopping off 1.4 runs from his 2004 ERA. But with a 4.7 strikeout rate, the odds of a strong follow-up are slim. He earned $24 in 2005; cap your bidding at $15.
2005: 3.50 ERA ($24)
2006: 4.51 ERA ($11)
Geoff Geary: Appears that 2nd half made his season (3.02 ERA), but xERA and BPV indicate that 1st half (4.54) was even better. Command is the key to his success. Good $1 LIMA pick.
2005: 2-1, 3.72 ERA
2006: 7-1, 2.96 ERA
Jorge Julio: After two seasons of major control problems, he bounced back last year. Problem is, nobody saw the skill behind the 5.94 ERA. A horrible 2nd half (8.21 ERA) was driven down by a ridiculous 52% strand rate and 19% HR/FB rate; those will regress to their means.
2005: 5.94 ERA
2006: 4.23 ERA
Kyle Lohse: Continues to evolve into a finesse pitcher, with some limited success. But as his strikeout rate continues to drop, the ice gets thinner and thinner. If either walk rate or FB% spike at all, 2004 (5.34 ERA) might look like a GOOD season.
2005: 4.19 ERA, 2.2 walk rate, 34% flyball rate
2006: 5.83 ERA, 3.1 walk rate, 37% flyball rate
Jason Marquis: Not a bad follow-up to his breakout until you look at his skills. 27% hit rate hid damage. Salvaged season with a 1.97 ERA and 18/2 K/BB in 32 IP during September. Don't overbid.
2004: 3.71 ERA
2005: 4.13 ERA
2006: 6.02 ERA
Brian Moehler: ERA tanked in 2nd half (6.44) due to 39% hit rate. But a 24/44 DOM/DIS split won't cut it anyway. Memories of his 1st half ERA (3.06) may overvalue him on draft day. Don't bite.
2005: 4.55 ERA
2006: 6.49 ERA
Matt Morris: A good rebound season on the surface, but he's in trouble. Look at 5-year K rate decline (7.7, 7.3, 6.3, 5.8, 5.5), plus 2nd half rate (4.7). Kept to 100 pitch count all season so there might be health concerns as well. Be cautious.
2004: 4.72 ERA
2005: 4.12 ERA
2006: 4.98 ERA
Mark Mulder: With his sub-5.0 strikeout rate and 61% ground ball rate, his fate was left in the hands of the STL defense, and they came through for him... this time. But his base performance indicators (BPIs) were horrible, a continuation of the slide that began at the end of 2004. Most folks will bid on his 16-win, 3.64 ERA season. Your only chance for profit will be if you bid on a 10-win, 4.50 season. Even that might be a stretch.
2005: 16-8, 3.64 ERA
2006: 6-7, 7.14 ERA
Brad Radke: Ridiculously incredible control, but it's all about the 5.6 K rate tipping point. When he reaches it, his ERA thrives; when he falls short, his ERA suffers no matter how few walks he gives up.
2004: 3.49 ERA, 5.9 K rate
2005: 4.05 ERA, 5.3 K rate
2006: 4.32 ERA, 4.6 K rate
Chris Reitsma: Can he succeed as ATL's closer? Probably not. He's posted a strikeout rate over 5.5 only once in the past 5 years. He does not pitch well with men on base (68% strand rate last year). And a 5% HR/FB rate will regress to 10%, meaning more HRs.
2005: 15 saves, 3.94 ERA
2006: 8 saves, 8.68 ERA
Nate Robertson: There are lots of small signs here... sub-4.00 xERAs for two years running, strong ground ball tendency, occasional flirtations with solid strikeout rate. The problem is putting the pieces together and overcoming some of the nagging deficiencies, like his elevated HR rate. At 28, this southpaw may be ready to take the next step.
2005: 7-16, 4.50 ERA
2006: 13-13, 3.84 ERA
J.C. Romero has posted 3.50ish ERAs for the past two years, but his BPIs don't support that level of output. He will likely be an end-gamer for some unlucky owner who does not understand that a pitcher cannot be consistently successful while walking over 6 batters per 9 IP.
2005: 3.47 ERA
2006: 6.70 ERA
Carlos Silva: Walk rate has gone from merely low to positively subterranean. As ground ball rate dwindles, increasing HR/9 hasn't hurt, since there's nobody on base. But margin for error is razor-thin; low walk rate alone may not be good enough.
2005: 9-8, 3.44 ERA
2006: 11-15, 5.94 ERA
Aaron Small: If you wonder how a 34-year-old journeyman with a K rate under 4.0 could go 10-0 with a 3.20 ERA, you need look no further than the small sample size and the 7.8 runs per game the Yankees scored in his starts. With a history marked by a wasteland of 5.00-plus ERAs posted on 23 different major and minor league teams, this is not a commodity you want to be investing anything in.
2005: 10-0, 3.20 ERA
2006: 0-3, 8.46 ERA
Ian Snell: Gradual five-year rise through the system marked by solid 2.3 walk rate and 8.6 strikeout rate. High fly ball rate will mean some HRs, but with a little polish, he could net a profit if he lands in the rotation.
2005: 1-2, 5.14 ERA ($0)
2006: 14-11, 4.74 ERA ($10)
Jorge Sosa outplayed his skills-based xERA by two full runs, thanks to an elevated 85% strand rate and maybe a little Mazzone Magic... which he won't be able to conjure up in '06. Potentially facing the biggest drop-off of any player.
2005: 13-3, 2.55 ERA
2006: 3-11, 5.34 ERA
Jeff Suppan's first sub-4.00 ERA season was not a true reflection of his skills; it was driven by a 82% strand rate in the 2nd half. As that regresses, his 5.3 strikeout rate and 1.3 K/BB will drive his ERA back to a normal level... which will be back over 4.00 in 2006. Don't bid on anything better than that.
2005: 3.57 ERA
2006: 4.12 ERA
Jarrod Washburn's 3.20 ERA will draw more bidders than deserved. His weak BPIs and 80% strand rate better support his xERA of 4.31. In fact, his xERAs have varied between 4.22 and 4.45 for the last five years. That's the skill level you need to be bidding on.
2005: 3.20 ERA
2006: 4.67 ERA
Dontrelle Willis: Breakout driven by growth in only one skill (walk rate) and a bunch of luck. Mild 2nd half fade, upcoming correction in HR/FB, and burnout concerns (IP and BF/G spikes at age 23) all raise a red flag. DN: 4.00 ERA, DL time.
2005: 22-10, 2.63 ERA
2006: 12-12, 3.91 ERA
Chris Young is no secret or sleeper if you've been anywhere near a discussion board this winter. His potential is terrific thanks to park effects alone -- moving from Texas to San Diego -- but he also is quite talented. Odds are he'll be overbid so it's probably best not to chase him (since, in all truth, there is no reliable track record to bid on), but in case he falls through the cracks...
2005: 4.28 ERA
2006: 3.46 ERA
