Track Record - 2005 Batters
Moises Alou's nearly 40-HR, $30 season seems to have flown under the radar, and perhaps that is appropriate. But you can be sure that a few owners in your league have taken notice and elevated him on their draft lists. Let them. The odds of this 38-year-old repeating 2004's performance, especially in pitcher-friendly SBC Park are minimal.
2004: 39 HR
2005: 19 HR
Mark Bellhorn posted a career-high .269 BA in '04, but that was inflated by a 37% hit rate. His xBA of .247 is a more reeasonable expectation. The problem is that the 2B pool in the AL is so thin this year, that owners may be tempted to overbid. Don't be caught short on a gamble.
2004: 18-85-.269
2005: 8-30-.210
Willie Bloomquist is never going to be a stolen base machine in the majors, despite stealing 30 in AA ball in 2001. In fact, he is likely going to go undrafted in most deep leagues. But you can't ignore the fact that he stole 13 bases last year and he could be bringing up the rear of a very risky SEA infield. If Adrian Beltre's 2004 proves to be a fluke and Pokey Reese is not healthy enough to play, he could back into 200 AB again... and steal double-digit bases again. A reasonable $1 end-gamer.
2004: 13 SB, .245 in 188 AB
2005: 14 SB, .257 in 249 AB
Jeromy Burnitz posted the highest BA of his career at age 35, but note that BPIs are largely unchanged. A Coors-made H%-driven anomaly; now headed elsewhere, his stats should plummet appropriately.
2004: 37-110-.283
2005: 24-87-.258
Some will see Eric Byrnes' .283 BA as a growth year for this 29-year-old, but his xBA (.258) and declining contact rate trend are troubling. Expect his BA to drop in 2005, which could have ripple effects on his stolen base output.
2004: 20-73-17-.283
2005: 10-40-7-.226
Despite huge power, low contact rate and xBA means there is further downside to Adam Dunn's batting average.
2004: .266
2005: .247
Morgan Ensberg was clueless in the first half, posting numbers that effectively colored his entire season. What most people don't know is that he clicked back into gear in the 2nd half, hitting 10 HRs and batting .281 (.295 xBA). If he can rediscover the flyball tendencies of 2002, he could put up exciting numbers this year.
2004: 10-66-.275
2005: 36-101-.283
Johnny Estrada's high ct% and LD rate serve him well, despite low PX. But note how much he wore down in the second half (.258 xBA). That's your new baseline.
2004: 9-76-.314
2005: 4-39-.261
Chone Figgins does not have a clear path to playing time, which is going to dissuade some bidders from going full value for his 30-plus SB potential. But he deserves an extra buck or two for his position flexibility alone. Bidding won't come near $20, though he could be worth at least that much.
2004: 5-60-34-.296 ($22)
2005: 8-57-62-.290 ($35)
AL owners will see Steve Finley as a prime cross-over commodity, but be careful. Power spikes at 39 years of age are rarely repeated. His BPIs are in decline. And despite ANA's investment in him, they have a TON of young talent just chomping at the bit to get their names on the lineup card.
2004: 36-94-.271
2005: 12-54-.222
It looked like a breakout year, but Lew Ford's PX and LD rate dropped, and hit rate was inflated in the 1st half. Though he hit .300 for nearly the entire year, this is not a legit .300 hitter, at least not yet. Don't overpay.
2004: 15-72-20-.299
2005: 7-53-13-.264
Troy Glaus had significant DL time in 2003-04, but PX, contact rate and walk rate all remain solid. BA should improve and HRs aplenty -- just needs the AB.
2003: 16 HR, .248 in 319 AB
2004: 18 HR, .251 in 207 AB
2005: 37 HR, .258 in 538 AB
The conglomeration of mediocre bats that have littered the COL lineup lately has depressed perception about all Rockies hitters. But if you are going to invest in Coors Field, and you still should, then Matt Holliday is one of the best names to put your money behind. UP: 20-25 HRs
2004: 14-57-.290
2005: 19-87-.307
H% and xBA show that Raul Ibanez got a little lucky in the batting average department, so .300 is probably not a good bet.
2004: .304
2005: .280
Brandon Inge won't come cheap for a catcher, especially since he'll be trying to justify his productivity at 3B this year. And that's part of the problem... he just doesn't hit enough for a 3Bman. The other part of the problem is that his BPIs only project him out to be a .255 hitter.
2004: .287
2005: .261
Andruw Jones has seemingly been around forever, but he is just entering his peak power years. Reported to be in better condition this spring and with a growing PX trend despite falling below 30 HR last year, Jones could jump to 40+ this year and the NL lead.
2004: 29 HRs
2005: 51 HRs
Jacques Jones looked to have conquered LH pitchers, but regressed in '04 partly due to drop in H% and excessive FBs. Don't expect a return to a .300 BA.
2002: .300
2003: .304
2004: .254
2005: .249
Derrek Lee discovered a more uppercut swing in the 2nd half and swatted 22 HRs from July on, effectively turning around a slow start. If he maintains that approach going into 2005 -- and his BPIs back it up -- then 40 HRs is within reach.
2004: 32 HRs
2005: 46 HRs
In a season that saw a more than 50% drop in his SB output, Kenny Lofton's speed index only fell about 7%. The skill remains; he only needs the opportunity. And with the risky Marlon Byrd as his only real competition, he's more in line for ABs in PHI than he was fighting it out with Bernie Williams in New York.
2004: 7 SB
2005: 22 SB
Julio Lugo's gradual improvement in OB, ct%, Eye and SX is a nice combination. Could sustain his increased SB output. With second half power fade and decrease in line drives, power may not return.
2003: 15-55-12-.271
2004: 7-75-21-.275
2005: 6-57-39-.295
One would think that, by now, Melvin Mora would have made a believer out of me, but I still have my doubts. While batters tend to post hit rates close to their career norms, his 36% and 37% levels the past two years are so far away from reality that the odds of three straight aberrant years seems unlikely. If you pay for 25 HRs and a .280 BA, he's worth owning, but anything beyond that is treading in risky territory.
2004: 27-104-.340 (37% hit rate)
2005: 27-88-.283 (31% hit rate)
In 2004, it looked like Phil Nevin finally returned to form, but I'd be wary. There's nothing wrong with his BPIs -- they look solid. My concern is that reliability score of 38, which tells me there's a good chance his purchase price will be too high for comfort. Nearly 200 DL days over the past three years raises a big, red flag here; venture over $20 at your own risk.
2004: 26-105-.289
2005: 12-55-.237
You might be tempted to take an end-game flyer on David Newhan, even though you already know he's unlikely to post numbers anywhere close to what he did in 2004. The fact is, there is enough uncertainty in the BAL OF that he might back into a bunch of ABs again. But a .311 BA? Not a chance. His xBA in the 2nd half was sub-.250. You don't want those numbers.
2004: .311
2005: .202 (though a .245 xBA)
Most folks will view Corey Patterson's 2004 season as a growth year, but that's really only because he managed to get up to the plate nearly 700 times. In terms of underlying skill, 2004 was actually a bit of a drop-off and there are certain BPIs that are downright rotten. A 70% contact rate? A .292 on base average in the 2nd half? A three-year trend of increasing fly ball frequency is what's boosting his power numbers, but other stats may start getting sacrificed in the process. It's conceivable that he may become a 30-75-10-.250 hitter, which has some value, but don't be paying for 30-75-30-.275. In fact, DN: 10 HR, .229
2004: 24-72-32-.266
2005: 13-34-15-.215
While Jay Payton's 2004 performance is not going to create bidding wars, it just might create gross ambivalence. Fourth in line in a powerful Red Sox lineup is not a good place to be, but as long as Trot Nixon remains somewhat of a risk, there may be some playing time to be had. An end game pick, but probably worth an extra buck on the PT upside.
2004: 8-55-.260
2005: 18-63-.267
Wily Mo Pena put together a $15 season at age 22 based on just one skill: raw power. Other skills need significant polishing. Bright future but may struggle some in 2005.
2004: 26-66-.259
2005: 19-51-.254
In the MLB.com experts league draft last spring, I was admonished for picking Placido Polanco in the 4th round. It did look pretty foolish for half the season, but he came storming back in the 2nd half. In fact, by season's end, he had posted about as good a season as in 2003, and better if you look at his 2nd half numbers. In 2005, it looks like he will be struggling to find playing time, but between David Bell's bad back and Chase Utley's uncertainty, I'd make the investment here. He could bat .300.
2004: .298
2005: .331
Manny Ramirez's G/L/F levels, if unchanged, could mean that his .320 days are over.
2003:.325
2004: .308
2005: 292
Ivan Rodriguez's inflated 1st half hit rate means a BA drop in 2005.
2004: .334
2005: .276
Grady Sizemore is worth an extra buck simply on the possibility that Aaron Boone might not be fully healed and Casey Blake has to move back to 3B.
2004: 4-24-.246 in 138 AB
2005: 22-81-.289 in 640 AB
J.T. Snow batted an amazing .382 with 11 HRs in the 2nd half, effectively salvaging a lost season. But with three extended DL stints in the last four years, four straight seasons of sub-500 AB, and an advancing age (37), we can't lend too much credence to his short-term performance spike. Bidding out of single digits is just plain silly.
2004: 13-60-.327 ($17)
2005: 4-40-.275 ($4)
Some desperate fantasy leaguers are going to see B.J. Surhoff's .309 BA and tuck him away at the bottom of their list of OFers. Resist the temptation. Beyond the fact that his xBA was .253 and all of his BPIs have been headed in a southerly direction for three years, there is a reason a player gets a reliability score of 0. In his case, it wasn't inconsistency (he's been very consistent). His problem has been his summer home on the DL, the futile quest for 350 AB and age 40. Pass. Then pass again just for good measure.
2004: 8-50-.309
2005: 5-34-.257
A BPI outlier, Ichiro Suzuki's xBA's don't buy him as a .300 hitter. HIs extreme GB tendencies, and ability to leg out infield hits, is the difference. Which means, his fate may rest on SX, a skill that erodes with age. Gut call - bid cautiously.
2004: .372
2005: .303 (but sub-.300 for most of September)
If you annualize Mark Teixeira's 2nd half productivity, you'd get a .300 hitter who'd bang out 50 HRs. That's not a level we should expect, or bid on, but it's definitely a level that we should tuck away, especially if the bidding stops at $25.
2004: 38-112-.281 ($25)
2005: 43-144-.301 ($35)
Chase Utley will likely play somewhere on a fairly regular basis. At 26, there could be more immediate upside to this projection (18-80-.281). If he's in the lineup every day... UP: 25 HRs, .290 BA
2004: 13-57-.266
2005: 28-105-.291
Jack Wilson earned $20 in 2004, a feat that won't likely happen again. His .308 BA was supported by only a .287 xBA and inflated 33% hit rate. Eleven HRs for a shortstop may sound interesting, but remember that he had over 652 AB.
2004: 11-59-.308
2005: 8-52-.257
The Cardinals knew they had caught lightning in a bottle with Tony Womack last year, which is why they so easily let him go. While his BAs the last three years were .271, .226 and .307, his associated xBAs were .256, .273 and .269. His .350 OBA was a career high, at age 35. In short, everything went right. He won't be so lucky in 2005, starting with his new team. Over 70% of players coming to the Yankees struggle in their first year in the Bronx. We'll lay odds that Womack will not end up in the other 30%.
2004: 5-38-26-.307
2005: 0-15-27-.249
The seeds are here for a late career power spike for Gregg Zaun.
2004: 6 HRs in 338 AB
2005: 11 HRs in 434 AB
Track Record - 2005 Pitchers
Brandon Backe nudged Cmd over 2.0, caught a break with S% for a change, and the results speak for themselves. But history and the odds say it's too good to last.
2004: 3.84 ERA between MLB and minors
2005: 4.77 ERA
With an ERA trend of 4.65, 5.48, and 5.68, Joaquin Benoit is not likely on anyone's radar. But he has excellent BPIs (3.1 Cmd, 3.60 xERA) that have been derailed by 32%/63% hit/strand rates and a bad nasty case of gopheritis. Leaving Texas would certainly help, but the foundation skills are still there to take a step up. UP: Sub-4.00 ERA
2004: 5.68 ERA
2005: 3.72 ERA
Kevin Brown has spent 255 days on the disabled list over the past four years, and at age 40, must be rostered at a discount. He remains intriguing for many reasons, not the least of which is his high exposure on the New York stage, but his declining dominance rates (8.5, 8.1, 7.9, 7.9, 5.7) show a pitcher who will have to find something other than skill to get him through ballgames. This is not the same pitcher who re-emerged as Elite in 2003.
2004: 10-6, 4.09 ERA
2005: 4-7, 6.53 ERA
Mark Buerhle continues to defy burnout worries. Did wear down in 2nd half, but pinpoint Ctl and low H% helped out. Now has three straight years of ~50% PQS DOM rate, a rare feat. UP: 18 wins, 3.25 ERA
2004: 3.89 ERA
2005: 3.12 ERA
David Bush posted impressive BPIs for rookie, but way too many total IP. Hit a wall in final 5 games: 4.9 k/9, 1.4 hr/9 over 31 IP. Watch closely for signs of burnout.
2004: 5-4, 3.70 ERA
2005: 5-11, 4.50 ERA
A 5.01 ERA will likely scare away most bidders from Chris Capuano, but his 3.72 xERA tells the real story. The only caution is his troubles with the longball. One tidbit to keep in your back pocket... if the new steroid policy ends up having any effect at all, it's possible that the widespread gopheritis epidemic might calm itself down this year. The fallout is that any pitcher who has excellent BPIs -- with the single weakness being a slightly inflate HR/9 -- might be a good target to take his game up a notch. Invest -- there's something very good here.
2004: 6-8, 5.01 ERA, 1.8 HR/9
2005: 18-12, 3.99 ERA, 1.3 HR/9
Brandon Claussen was inconsistent in 2004: 21% DOM, 43% DIS (all PQS-0's) in 13 starts. xERA was a bit more optimistic before he hit the majors. LHers mature later and there are the seeds of something good here.
2004: 2-8, 6.14 ERA
2005: 10-11, 4.22 ERA
Neal Cotts really dialed things up in 2nd half and got his Cmd ratio above 2.0. HR/9 is a problem, but 35% FB ratio says gopheritis should pass. 2005 should be growth year, making him a reasonable end-game filler.
2004: 5.67 ERA
2005: 1.95 ERA
There were enough good things about Ryan Drese that we had him on our radar a few years ago, but his performance in 2004 is going to inflate his value. Key warning signs are a sub-4.5 strikeout rate the past two years (which correlates to an ERA ceiling well over 4.00) and a 4.95 ERA in the 2nd half (which could be an early sign of impending doom). As an extreme ground ball pitcher, he might avoid some of the disaster, but until he can crack a 27% DOMination rate, there just too much downside here.
2004: 14-10, 4.21 ERA
2005: 7-12, 5.79 ERA
If there's anyone who might morph into 2005's version of Ben Sheets, it could be Adam Eaton (52). While his ERA has not been able to crack the 4.00 barrier, and his 4.61 mark in 2004 should keep bidding down, his excellent BPIs (2.9 Cmd, 3.63 xERA) show the upside. Key indicator is that he has taken control of his disaster starts (DOM/DIS trend the past three years -- 50/33, 48/19, 52/9), and in Petco, it won't take but a little bit of luck to get his ERA down below 4.00. UP: 15 wins, 3.50 ERA
2004: 10-14, 4.61 ERA
2005: 9-2, 3.42 ERA before getting hurt
Brian Fuentes is a decent LIMA pick in deep leagues. Ctl getting a touch better each year. He'll need to watch his fly ball trend before Coors catches up with him. Expect a decent rebound if healthy.
2004: 5.70 ERA, 0 saves
2005: 2.91 ERA, 31 saves
There is an anomaly in Aaron Harang's BPI trends that might open the door for him to take a step up. First off are his BPIs, which are solid (2.4 Cmd, 3.72 xERA in 2004), though obscured by a low strand rate. His major problem right now is the longball, and a trend that ordinarily would not bode well for the future (last three years' HR/9 of 0.5, 1.1, 1.5). However, at the same time, his flyball percentage has declined (50%, 40%, 38%), which should ultimately trickle down to his HR rate. Should the planets align properly in 2005, he could put up big numbers. UP: 15 wins, 3.75 ERA
2004: 4.86 ERA
2005: 3.84 ERA
Look beyond Rich Harden's ordinary 2004 line -- 11-7, 4.00 ERA -- to his xERA of 3.59. While his control remains slightly elevated (walk rates near 4.0), his 3.6 level in the 2nd half shows some improvement. If he gets that consistently down closer to 3.0, his ERA should settle in the mid to lower 3.00s.
2004: 4.00 ERA
2005: 2.95 ERA
One has to wonder how STL could have parted with a young pitcher who had posted MLE command ratios of 3.2 and 3.5 over the past two years. But Danny Haren's BPIs have hidden his true skill level, his xERA nearly a full run lower than his actual 4.34 mark last year. I'll go on record and say that I would not be the least bit surprised if he posted better numbers than Mark Mulder, if not this year, then certainly by 2006.
2004: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 Cmd
2005: 3.73 ERA, 3.1 Cmd (Mulder: 3.64, 1.6 Cmd)
Dustin Hermanson was decent as a starter, then moved to the pen on 8/3 and posted a 100 BPV as SF's closer. Sample size (27 IP) was small, but he appears capable of holding the closer job in 2005.
2004: 4.53 ERA, 17 saves
2005: 2.05 ERA, 34 saves
Orlando Hernandez' BPIs support his performance but three reasons for caution:
1. Only 3 of 15 starts came against +.500 opposition.
2. Arm trouble in October raises more health questions.
3. 39? 39?!! Really now.
2004: 3.31 ERA
2005: 5.13 ERA
Joe Kennedy defied gravity in 2004, posting a 3.66 ERA with mediocre BPIs... and in COL. It was an $11 season, but the odds of him returning double-digit value again, given his BPIs and venue, are remote. Lightning just doesn't strike twice.
2004: 3.66 ERA, $11
2005: 6.03 ERA, -$5
Danny Kolb managed to excel in the 1st half thanks to extreme GB%, great Ctl, and luck. 2nd half shows how difficult that is to sustain. Bottom line... He is not going to succeed as a closer with a 4.0 Dom. Suddenly he's very risky.
2004: 2.99 ERA, 39 saves
2005: 5.98 ERA, 11 saves
After two seasons with ERAs in the 4.60s, most fantasy leaguers figure John Lackey to be a sub-$10 late-rounder. But his BPIs have been consistently solid for several years now -- including three consecutive years of sub-4.00 xERAs -- and at 26, he could be on the verge of taking the next step up. His 2nd half boasted the highest strikeout rate of his career -- 8.5 -- and a 3.47 xERA, which could be 2005's springboard. UP: 17 wins, 3.75 ERA
2004: 14-13, 4.68 ERA
2005: 14-5, 3.44 ERA
The awful 2nd half posted by Cliff Lee -- 6.94 ERA -- may scare away many bidders, but he was more than a little bit unlucky. With a ridiculous 59% strand rate, his 3.72 xERA from July on was probably a more accurate indicator of his skills. However, he is not completely exonerated from blame. He was devastated by the longball -- 30 HRs in 179 IP -- and must reel that in to get his ERA back in reasonable territory.
2004: 5.43 ERA, 1.5 HR/9
2005: 3.79 ERA, 1.0 HR/9
Al Leiter is entering that area we affectionately call the Rickey Bones Zone... "Pitchers with BPIs so incredibly horrible that you have to wonder how they can possibly draw a major league paycheck year after year." With a walk rate of 5.0 and a Cmd of 1.2, it was only from lucky 25%/79% hit/strand rates that he managed a sub-4.00 ERA in 2004. At age 39, that won't happen again. DN: 5.00 ERA
2004: 10-8, 3.22 ERA
2005: 7-12, 6.14 ERA
While there were small drops in some of his BPIs, the only real difference between Pedro Martinez in 2004 and 2003 was 20 HRs. Granted, that's a ton of HRs, and FB trend backs that up, but you have to think that's fixable.
2004: 3.90 ERA, 1.1 HR/9
2005: 2.82 ERA, 0.8 HR/9
Jose Mesa's hit/strand rates were responsible for his 6.52 ERA in 2003. 2004's more moderate rates yielded an ERA three runs lower. That's the good news. The (really) bad news is his huge drop in Dom. Beware.
2004: 3.26 ERA, 43 saves
2005: 4.80 ERA, 27 saves
From looking at his historical BPIs, one would think that Kevin Millwood had settled in as a consistent frontline starter with ERAs in the mid-3.00s. However, he's only had one sub-4.00 ERA in the past five years, thanks to some highly volatile hit/strand rates. Will he put the pieces together in CLE? Hard to say, but the fact remains that those pieces are there for him to post a mid-3.00s ERA at any time.
2004: 4.85 ERA
2005: 2.86 ERA
Taking a line drive off his pitching arm was an unlucky break, but Tomo Ohka's pre-break 3.03 ERA was the product of good luck (1st half 83% strand rate). As a soft-tosser, expect an ERA closer to 4.00.
2004: 3.42 ERA
2005: 4.05 ERA
Another outstanding season cements Roy Oswalt's reputation as one of the major league's most dominant and effective pitchers. If H% and S% regress to career norms, 2005 will be even better.
2004: 3.49 ERA, 32%/73% H%/S%
2005: 2.95 ERA, 31%/78% H%/S%
Oliver Perez has made great strides as his BPIs continue to improve. The only concern is his workload, which has been excessive for this young of an arm. Don't be surprised to find him on the DL occasionally the next few years.
2004: 2.98 ERA, 0 DL days
2005: 5.85 ERA, 73 DL days
LHers coming over to the NL often have an early advantage over hitters, and Andy Pettitte came out storming. BPIs faded as his elbow started acting up. If healthy, could put up big numbers.
2004: 3.90 ERA
2005: 2.39 ERA
Some will look at Horacio Ramirez's 2.40 ERA in his abbreviated season and see improvement from his 4.01 rookie year. In reality, his poor BPIs regressed and it was only his absurd 24%/88% hit/strand rates that kept his ERA in this stratosphere. There is nothing in this skills set that points to anything but a 4.00-plus ERA pitcher; in fact, odds are his ERA could end up closer to 5.00.
2004: 2.40 ERA
2005: 4.63 ERA
Scot Shields broke through the 100 BPV level but his ERA dropped off, thanks to an elevated hit rate. As that regresses to the mean, his ERA will return to sub-3.00 territory.
2004: 3.34 ERA
2005: 2.76 ERA
In his last 8 starts, Brett Tomko posted a DOM/DIS split of 75/13, allegedly thanks to a sports psychologist. But BPIs were no better than past history. Don't overpay based on one fine month. We need more proof.
2004: 4.04 ERA
2005: 4.50 ERA
Most of last year's owners of Jake Westbrook enjoyed a nice profit on their investment, but that's not something they'll likely be able to take to the bank in 2005. He hasn't posted a 5.0 strikeout rate since 2001, which typically means a best-case ERA in the low 4.00s, not the 3.39 mark he registered in 2004. Don't pay for last year's numbers.
2004: 3.39 ERA
2005: 4.50 ERA
